Restaurant Decision Making Process - US - October 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Overview
The issues
Competition for prepared meals is high
Figure 1: Restaurant competitor utilization, July 2018
FSRs experience slowed growth
Figure 2: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2013-23
The opportunities
Restaurant revenues expected to grow
Figure 3: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2013-2023
Consumers view takeout positively
Figure 4: Correspondence Analysis– On-premise vs at-home associations, July 2018
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Consumer spending is up
Operators must combat increasing costs and competition
Interest in LSRs continues to grow, while casual dining chains struggle
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Restaurant sales continue to climb upward
Figure 5: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2013-2023
Figure 6: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET BREAKDOWN
LSR growth is outperforming FSRs
Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 9: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 10: Total US revenues and forecast of limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 11: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Consumers have more choice than ever
Consumer interest in convenience stores continues
Figure 12: Total US sales and fan chart of c-store foodservice sales, at current prices, 2012-2022
Figure 13: C-store foodservice attitudes, January 2018
Figure 14: C-stores versus QSRs, January 2018
Retailers invest in supermarket foodservice
Figure 15: retail and foodservice associations, August 2017
Workplace provided lunches could hurt local restaurants
MARKET FACTORS 
Positive economic conditions ahead
Figure 16: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007- August 2018
Consumers have more discretionary funds
Figure 17: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-July 2018
Generational shares are shifting
Figure 18: Population by generation, 2013-23
Malls must adapt or be pushed out
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Restaurants deliver on convenience
Restaurant founders’ woes hurt chain restaurant sales
Chick-fil-A markets Mealtime Kits
WHAT’S WORKING?
Delivering convenience directly to customer’s homes
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Reputations of restaurant founders
WHAT’S NEXT?
Chick-fil-A testing Mealtime Kits
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
At-home dining is restaurants’ biggest competition
Younger and older generations view dining out differently
Consumers seek recommendations from friends and family
Restaurant-goers are interested in more takeout options
RESTAURANT VISITATION 
QSR visitation remains high
Figure 19: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, July 2018
Nearly all young women have visited a fast food restaurant
Figure 20: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, age & gender, July 2018
Younger generations desire more casual dining 
Figure 21: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, by generation, July 2018
Parents are top restaurant-goers
Figure 22: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, by parental status and gender, July 2018
Multicultural customers remain important opportunity
Figure 23: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
Figure 24: Adventurous eater segmentation by race, July 2018
RESTAURANT MOTIVATORS 
Consumers dine out to socialize
Figure 25: Restaurant motivators, July 2018
Parents look to dining out to save time
Figure 26: Restaurant motivators, saving time, by gender and parental status, July 2018
Healthy meal options motivate young men
Figure 27: Restaurant motivators, by age and gender, July 2018
iGens dine out to socialize; Millennials dine out to indulge and relax
Figure 28: Restaurant motivators, by generation, July 2018
RESTAURANT INFORMATION SOURCES 
Word-of-mouth recommendations are most valuable
Figure 29: Information source, July 2018
Older generations trust recommendations and traditional media
Figure 30: Information sources, by generation, July 2018
Coupons and promotions attract middle income earners
Figure 31: Information sources, by household income, July 2018
Figure 32: P.F. Chang’s company email, September 9th, 2018, Projected volume: 26.3k
Parents are more likely to use social media to find restaurants
Figure 33: Information sources, by parental status, July 2018
TRADITIONAL RESTAURANT COMPETITION
Competition remains high
Figure 34: Restaurant competitor utilization, July 2018
Young men buy meals from many sources
Figure 35: Restaurant competitor utilization by age and gender, July 2018
Parents shop and dine at supermarkets
Figure 36: Restaurant competitor utilization by age and gender, July 2018
Hispanics are top consumers for foodservice retail concepts
Figure 37: Restaurant competitor utilization by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
DINING OUT ASSOCIATIONS
Takeout trumps delivery, but dining out is still king
Figure 38: Correspondence Analysis – On-premise vs at-home associations, July 2018
Figure 39: On-premise vs at-home associations, July 2018
Younger consumers more favorable towards delivery
Figure 40: On-premise vs at-home associations - delivery, by generation, July 2018
Lower income households more favorable towards delivery
Figure 41: On-premise vs at-home associations -delivery, by household income, July 2018
ON-PREMISE VS AT-HOME DINING BEHAVIOR 
More than a third of restaurant-goers are cooking more at home
Figure 42: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, July 2018
Almost half of young women are cooking more at home than last year
Figure 43: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by age and gender, July 2018
Parents are more likely to only dine out for special occasions
Figure 44: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by parental status, July 2018
Black consumers, older women interested in calorie counts
Figure 45: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by age and gender, July 2018
Figure 46: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by race & Hispanic origin, July 2018
Middle income earners and parents interested in chains
Figure 47: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by household income, July 2018
Figure 48: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by parental status, July 2018
Parents and younger consumers are ordering more takeout and delivery
Figure 49: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by parental status, July 2018
Figure 50: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by age and gender, July 2018
DINING OUT ATTITUDES 
Consumers dine out to try something new, indulge
Figure 51: Dining out attitudes, July 2018
Younger generations desire both consistency and adventure
Figure 52: Dining out attitudes, by generation, July 2018
Millennials want to indulge when eating out
Figure 53: Dining out attitudes, July 2018
Older women feel it is easier to eat healthier at restaurants
Figure 54: Dining out attitudes, July 2018
Hispanics value ambience
Figure 55: Dining out attitudes, ambience, by race & Hispanic origin, July 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 56: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Correspondence Analysis Methodology