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Solar Panels - UK - September 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Solar PV installations collapse in 2016 and 2017 following government policy change
Figure 1: Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, 2010-17
Ground-mounted sector moves into post-subsidy phase
Availability of cheaper and more efficient solar-plus storage systems to drive roof-top solar PV sector
Solar companies are turning attention to the new build sector and local authorities
Largely untapped commercial sector offers huge growth potential
Overall solar PV deployment set for modest growth between 2018 and 2022
Figure 2: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2018-22
Companies and brands
Abrupt government policy changes result in many companies exiting UK solar PV sector
Installers are diversifying into energy storage, energy efficiency and EV charging
The consumer
41% of respondents would consider having solar panels installed if a solar company/installer proved the cost savings to them
Nearly a third of homeowners would consider having solar panels installed if more cost-effective energy storage systems become available
Figure 3: Reasons for considering having solar panels installed, May 2018
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Commercial sector offers huge growth potential for solar PV despite some barriers to deployment
The facts
The implications
Growing number of companies are moving into nascent solar-plus storage market
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
UK sees dramatic fall in solar PV installs in 2016 and 2017 following government policy change
Future growth in residential rector to be driven by ‘paid-for’ solar plus storage systems
Solar PV still offers an attractive and viable option for commercial sector
Ground-mounted sector moves into post-subsidy phase
MARKET SIZE
Introduction
Nearly 13GW of solar PV installed in UK
UK sees dramatic fall in solar PV installs in 2016 and 2017 following government policy change
Figure 4: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2011-18
Figure 5: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2010-17
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Overview
Figure 6: Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2012-18
Figure 7: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme, 2012-18
Figure 8: Photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, as of June 2017
Residential solar PV market
Drastic cuts in FITs in early 2016 result in slump in residential solar PV installations
‘Free solar’ versus paid-for installations
Future growth to be driven by ‘paid-for’ solar plus storage systems
Figure 9: Residential photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2012-18
Building-mounted solar PV market
Figure 10: Building mounted photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2012-18
Figure 11: Building mounted photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, mid 2018
Companies continue to face barriers to deployment in commercial solar PV market
Commercial roof-top market damaged by sharp business rate hikes in April 2017
But solar PV still offers an attractive and viable option for commercial sector
Ground-mounted solar PV market
Ground-mounted sector moves into post-subsidy phase
Emergence of PPAs present growth opportunities for ground-mounted solar PV installations
8.3 GW installed capacity across 1,122 solar farms operational
Figure 12: Ground mounted and large scale photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2012-18
Community solar PV installations
New business models starting to emerge
Figure 13: Number of community FIT energy installations, Q2 2013-Q1 2018
REGIONAL TRENDS
Regional development
London aims to boost solar PV deployment as part of the capital’s environment strategy
Figure 14: Household penetration of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by region, 2014-18
Figure 15: Regional distribution of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by type and region, cumulative as of June 2018
THE EUROPEAN/WORLD CONTEXT
Figure 16: World, EU and UK cumulative photovoltaic installations, 2012-17
Figure 17: World development of photovoltaic installations, 2010-16
MARKET FORECAST
Drastic government policy changes prove highly detrimental to solar PV sector
Solar PV subsidy cuts contribute to significant fall in UK clean energy investment
Ground-mounted sector moves into post-subsidy phase
Increased availability of affordable and efficient solar-plus storage systems to drive take-up of roof-top solar PV
Solar companies are turning their attention to new build sector and local authorities
Largely untapped commercial sector offers huge growth potential
Overall solar PV deployment set for modest growth between 2018 and 2022
Figure 18: Forecast photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, 2018-22
Figure 19: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2018-22
MARKET TRENDS
Growing number of companies are moving into nascent solar-plus storage market
Advancements in building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) make solar PV more aesthetically pleasing
Utility sector offers opportunities for solar firms
Solar carports represent an emerging market
GOVERNMENT POLICY AND LEGISLATIVE ENVIRONMENT
UK committed to reducing carbon emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050
UK currently on track to miss emission reduction targets between 2023 and 2032
Policies to decarbonise electricity
Renewables Obligation
Contracts for Difference
Feed-in Tariffs
Drastic cuts to FITs cause roof-top solar PV deployment to plummet over 2016 and 2017
Figure 20: UK feed in tariff levels, 1 July 2018-30 September 2018
Capacity Market
MARKET DRIVERS
New housebuilding sector offers huge growth potential for solar PV companies
Social rented sector attracts interest from solar PV companies
Figure 21: RESIDENTIAL dwelling stock in Great Britain, 2011-16
Number of non-domestic properties
Figure 22: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by sector and region, as at 1 April 2017
Figure 23: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by property type, as at 31 March 2015
PV prices falling rapidly
Anti-dumping duty on China solar panels
Tax breaks for solar panels and battery systems
Government commits funding for research and innovation in battery storage technology
UK energy mix and growth in renewable energy sector
Figure 24: Analysis of electricity generation the UK, by type of fuel used, 2013-17
Figure 25: Proportional importance of fuel source in UK electricity generation, 2013 and 2017
Figure 26: Renewable electricity generation in the UK, 2013-17
The UK climate
Other factors
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Government policy change results in many companies exiting UK solar PV sector and job losses
Solarcentury and IKEA team up to offer residential solar systems and home batteries in UK
BSR launches behind-the-meter energy storage solutions provider
BP invests in Lightsource to drive global solar expansion
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Abrupt government policy changes result in many companies exiting UK solar PV sector
Figure 27: Employment and number of companies active across UK solar PV supply chain, 2012-17
Figure 28: UK solar PV sector turnover, 2012-17
Key industry players
Installers are diversifying into energy storage, energy efficiency and EV charging
Solar companies are looking for international expansion
COMPANY PROFILES
British Solar Renewables
BSR launches behind-the-meter energy storage solutions provider in 2017
Company strategy and outlook
Financial performance
Figure 29: Financial analysis of British Solar Renewables
EvoEnergy
Company strategy
Financial performance
Figure 30: Financial analysis of EvoEnergy, 2012-17
Lightsource Renewable Energy Investment
BP invests in Lightsource to drive global expansion
Strategy
Recent UK company developments
Financial performance
Figure 31: Lightsource Renewable Energy Investments, 2016-17
Solar Century Holdings
Solarcentury and IKEA team up to offer residential solar systems and home batteries in UK
Solarcentury focusses on international expansion as UK market is hit by green cuts
Company review and outlook
Figure 32: Financial analysis of Solar Century Holdings, 2014-18
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Strong support for solar PV among UK public
41% of respondents would consider having solar panels installed if a solar company/installer proved the cost savings
Nearly a third of homeowners would consider having solar panels installed if more cost-effective energy storage systems become available
OWNERSHIP
Ownership levels of solar panels remain low
Figure 33: Ownership of solar panels, May 2018
Most people who have solar panels on their roofs have paid for them themselves
Figure 34: Payment of household’s solar panels and installation, May 2018
ATTITUDES TOWARDS SOLAR PANELS
73% would like to see all new homes fitted with solar panels where suitable
Figure 35: Attitudes towards solar panels, May 2018
56% of homeowners would be interested in purchasing a solar-plus-battery storage system
Figure 36: Attitudes towards solar panels, May 2018
FUTURE INTENTIONS
Solar companies need to accurately prove cost savings to homeowners to drive sales in residential solar PV market
Nearly a third of homeowners would consider having solar panels installed if more cost-effective energy storage systems become available
Figure 37: Reasons for considering having solar panels installed, May 2018
More than a third of people say they would not consider solar panels as they can’t afford them
One in four put off from installing solar panels because of aesthetic reasons
Figure 38: Reasons for not considering having solar panels installed, May 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Methodology
FURTHER SOURCES AND CONTACTS
Trade associations
British Photovoltaic Association
Energy Networks Association
Energy Industries Council
Energy UK
SolarPower Europe
European Solar Thermal Industry Federation
Micropower Council
Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem)
Office of Gas and Electricity Markets - Scotland (Ofgem Scotland)
Renewable Energy Association
Solar Trade Association
Trade magazines
Renewable Energy Focus
Solar Business Focus
Solar UK
Solar International
Trade events
All-Energy Exhibition & Conference Aberdeen
Future Resource Expo
Solar & Storage Live

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