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Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter) - UK - April 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Back-to-school worth almost £1 billion
Figure 1: Estimated autumn/winter seasonal events market size (Including VAT), 2017
August sales boosted by inflation on back-to-school items
Figure 2: CPIH annual percentage change, for back-to-school categories, August 2016 and August 2017
Black Friday encourages November online sales
Figure 3: Online share of all retail sales, monthly, 2016-17
Companies and brands
Increase in Halloween in-store experiences
Figure 4: Budweiser King of Fears shop, 2017
Cut-price supermarket party ideas
Advertising expenditure increases in August and September
The consumer
Nine in ten make back-to-school purchase
Figure 5: Products purchased for the start of the school term in autumn 2017, September 2017
Supermarkets remain popular for back-to-school purchasing
Figure 6: Types of retailers used for purchasing items at the start of the autumn 2017 school term, September 2017
Parents care most about product quality
Figure 7: Improvement wanted for back-to-school items, September 2017
Parents of young children biggest-spending group for Halloween
Figure 8: Spend on Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2017
Amazon and supermarkets most popular for Halloween and Bonfire Night
Figure 9: Retailers purchased from for Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2017
Value for money leading purchasing factor
Figure 10: Purchase drivers for Halloween and Bonfire Night retailers, November 2017
People keen to recycle Halloween items
Figure 11: Behaviours towards Halloween, November 2017
Most enjoy attending a Bonfire Night celebration
Figure 12: Behaviours towards Bonfire Night, November 2017
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Other key festivals present opportunity
The facts
The implications
Room for a more sustainable approach to seasonal events
The facts
The implications
Missing opportunities in Bonfire Night
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Back-to-school now worth almost £1 billion
Halloween and Bonfire Night remain smallest seasonal events
Autumn takes largest share of retail sales
Back-to-school boosts August sales
Black Friday encourages November online sales
November and December have similar value of online retail sales
Health and Beauty, as well as Food specialists had a good Christmas
MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
Uniforms drive back-to-school market growth
Figure 13: Estimated autumn/winter seasonal events market size (including VAT), 2017
Figure 14: Estimated breakdown of retail sales by products purchased for back-to-school, 2017
Figure 15: Estimated breakdown of retail sales by products purchased for back-to-school (including VAT), 2017
Figure 16: Estimated breakdown of retail sales by products purchased for Halloween and Bonfire Night, 2017
Figure 17: Estimated breakdown of retail sales by products purchased for Halloween and Bonfire Night (including VAT), 2017
Figure 18: What extra money is spent on, June 2017-February 2018
RETAIL SALES ACROSS THE YEAR
Autumn continues to dominate share of retail sales
Figure 19: Percentage of retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2016 and 2017
Figure 20: Value of retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2017
Retail sales concentrated towards the end of the year
Figure 21: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2016 and 2017
Non-store retailing increases share of market over autumn period
Figure 22: Percentage of retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by sector, 2017
Figure 23: Value of retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by sector, 2017
Growth in retail sales by month
April sees strongest growth
Back-to-school helps to boost August sales…
Figure 24: CPIH annual percentage change, for back-to-school categories, August 2016 and August 2017
…while Halloween fails to have an effect on disappointing October sales
Figure 25: Year-on-year percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017
Electrical sector sees defined seasonal trends
Figure 26: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017
ONLINE RETAIL SALES ACROSS THE YEAR
Online share of sales peaks for Black Friday
Figure 27: Online share of all retail sales, monthly, 2016-17
November becomes as important as December for online
Figure 28: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2016 and 2017
Online growth peaks in first half of the year
Figure 29: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017
Clothing and footwear is strongest online performer
Figure 30: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by category, monthly, 2016 and 2017
BLACK FRIDAY AND CHRISTMAS
Black Friday sales reached £4.2 billion in 2017
Sales over the Christmas period rose 4.5%
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Marks & Spencer launches school footwear service
Gender-neutral uniforms
Topshop and Topman ‘Stranger Things’ Halloween collaboration
Cut-price Halloween party ideas
Advertising expenditure increases in August and September
Asda links with Shazam for Halloween campaign
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Back-to-school
Marks & Spencer launches kids’ footwear fitting advice service
Gender-neutral school uniforms
Emoji and Selfridges team up for back-to-school initiative
Halloween
Pop-up dress up shops
Figure 31: Budweiser King of Fears shop, 2017
Topshop Halloween Stranger Things collaboration
Figure 32: Topshop and Topman’s Stranger Things display at flagship store, 2017
Halloween makeovers
Supermarket party ideas
Figure 33: Tesco online Halloween promotions, 2017
Other events
Hotel Chocolat Eid gifts
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Back-to-school helps to boost August expenditure
Figure 34: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2016 and 2017
Share of advertising spend in autumn and winter months decreases
Figure 35: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by seasons, as % of total spending, 2016 and 2017
Overall spend for 2017 is on the up
Figure 36: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2016 and 2017
Television remains the most important advertising medium
Figure 37: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, as % of total spending, 2016 and 2017
Figure 38: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, 2015-17
Halloween campaigns
Asda-Shazam lip sync tie-up
Aldi Family
Have a scream this Halloween with Wilko
Back-to-school
George’s ‘Strong Clothes for Strong Kids’
Marks & Spencer’s #SpendItWell
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
School uniform drives spend
Discounters not widely used for back-to-school
Product quality of top importance
More money spent on Halloween than Bonfire Night
Dads spend more on Bonfire Night
Physical retail most popular way of purchasing for seasonal events
Millennials interested in experiences
People want to reuse Halloween items
PURCHASING FOR BACK-TO-SCHOOL
Nine in ten purchased back-to-school items before the start of school
Figure 39: Products purchased for the start of the school term in autumn 2017, September 2017
School uniform most popular item
Rising spend on uniforms puts pressure on low-income families
Figure 40: Amount spent on products purchased for the start of the school term, September 2017
Variety of items purchased
Figure 41: Repertoire of products purchased for the start of the school term in autumn 2017, September 2017
Dads are more likely to purchase items last minute
Figure 42: How far in advance products are purchased for the start of the school term in autumn 2017, by gender, September 2017
WHERE BACK-TO-SCHOOL ITEMS ARE PURCHASED
Online retailing gaining importance
Figure 43: Channels used to purchase back-to-school items in autumn 2017, September 2017
Supermarkets most popular for school items
Figure 44: Types of retailers used for purchasing items at the start of the autumn 2017 school term, September 2017
Discounters not widely used
Age has a low impact on retailer choice
Figure 45: Types of retailers used for purchasing items at the start of the autumn 2017 school term, by age of children, September 2017
FACTORS FOR IMPROVEMENT – BACK-TO-SCHOOL
Product quality is most important factor for parents
Figure 46: Improvement wanted for Back-to-school items, September 2017
Improvements in sizing wanted
Figure 47: M&S school uniform size and fit guide, 2018
PURCHASING FOR HALLOWEEN AND BONFIRE NIGHT
More spent on Halloween
Figure 48: Spend on Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2017
Parents of young children biggest-spending group
Young Millennials spend on Halloween
Figure 49: Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night, by generation, November 2017
Dads outspend mums on Bonfire Night
Figure 50: Amount spent on Bonfire Night products, mothers vs fathers, November 2017
Opportunities for more spending occasions
Figure 51: Repertoire of expenditure for Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2017
Figure 52: Halloween multibuy offers at Iceland, 2017
RETAILERS PURCHASED FROM – HALLOWEEN AND BONFIRE NIGHT
Physical retail still most popular way of purchasing for events
Figure 53: Channels used to shop for Halloween and Bonfire Night products, November 2017
Supermarkets take most of the spend
Figure 54: Types of retailers purchased from for Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2017
Figure 55: Ocado Bonfire Night food promotions, 2017
Amazon popular for Halloween products
Figure 56: Retailers purchased from for Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2017
People unlikely to shop around for purchases
Figure 57: Repertoire of retailers used for Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2017
Figure 58: Boohoo Halloween inspiration, 2017
PURCHASE DRIVERS FOR HALLOWEEN AND BONFIRE NIGHT
Value for money most important factor
Figure 59: Purchase drivers for Halloween and Bonfire Night retailers, November 2017
Experiences and visual displays more appealing to younger consumers
Figure 60: Purchase drivers for Halloween and Bonfire Night retailers, by age, November 2017
SHOPPER BEHAVIOUR – HALLOWEEN AND BONFIRE NIGHT
Consumers would like to reuse Halloween items
Figure 61: Behaviours towards Halloween, November 2017
Men more likely to make last-minute Halloween purchases
Figure 62: Seasonal shopping behaviours – CHAID – Tree output, November 2017
Figure 63: Seasonal shopping behaviours – CHAID – Table output, Halloween, November 2017
Figure 64: Seasonal shopping behaviours – CHAID – Table output, Bonfire Night, November 2017
Methodology
Weekend helps drive celebrations
Figure 65: Behaviours towards Bonfire Night, November 2017
Celebrations come with safety concerns
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology

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