Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods - UK - March 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Total sales of cakes and sweet baked goods flat
Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2012-22
Treating and special occasions will help future growth
2017 growth in cake sales due to higher prices
Category blurring a feature in sweet treats
Cutting sugar a major challenge for the market
Income squeeze not necessarily bad news
Companies and brands
Mr Kipling sees dip in sales
Figure 2: Leading brands in cakes and cake bars retail market, share by value, 2016/17*
Reduced sugar range launched by Mr Kipling
Biscuit and chocolate brands extend presence
Dip in 2017 advertising for cakes and sweet baked goods
Cadbury and Mr Kipling most trusted brands
The consumer
Cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
Small cakes and cake bars are most popular
Figure 3: Types of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods eaten in the last 3 months, December 2017
Two thirds of less frequent buyers could be persuaded to buy more
Figure 4: Factors that would encourage more buying of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods, December 2017
Being freshly baked gives products extra appeal
Figure 5: Attributes most important when buying for yourself or for sharing with others, December 2017
High-quality ingredients most important for special occasions
Figure 6: Factors most important when buying cakes and sweet baked goods for a special occasion, December 2017
At-work occasions and internet important for cake sales
Figure 7: Behaviour in relation to cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
Mood boosting a theme for promoting cakes
Figure 8: Attitudes towards cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Scope for cakes to steal space on the menu from other sweet treats
The facts
The implications
Broad range of attributes needed to capture people’s attention for different occasions
The facts
The implications
Special occasions offer plenty of scope for adding value to market
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Total sales of cakes and sweet baked goods flat
Treating and special occasions will help future growth
Growth in cake sales due to higher prices
Stronger growth in small than large cakes
Category blurring a feature in sweet treats
Baking at home still popular
Cutting sugar a major challenge for the market
PHE encourages healthier snacks for kids
Income squeeze not necessarily bad news
Ageing population presents a challenge to cakes
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Total sales for cakes and sweet baked goods flat
Figure 9: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2012-22
Figure 10: Total UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2012-22
Treating and special occasions will help future growth
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Growth in cake sales due to higher prices
Figure 11: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by major segment, 2012-22
Stronger growth in small than large cakes
Figure 12: Total UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2016 and 2017
Few bright spots in sweet baked goods in 2017
Figure 13: Total UK retail value sales of pre-packed sweet baked goods, by types, 2016 and 2017
MARKET DRIVERS
Category blurring a feature in sweet treats
Baking at home still popular
Figure 14: 'I bake cakes/sweet baked goods at home', by age, December 2017
Cutting sugar a major challenge for market
Sugar reduction targets set
PHE encourages healthier snacking for kids
Income squeeze not necessarily bad news for cakes
Ageing population presents a challenge to cakes
Growth in the child population
Figure 15: Trends in age structure of the UK population, 2012-22
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Mr Kipling sees dip in sales
On-the-go range expansion helps Soreen
Mr Kipling launches reduced sugar range
Seasonal products make up a fifth of new launches
Biscuit and chocolate brands extend presence
Dip in 2017 advertising for cakes and sweet baked goods
Mr Kipling stand for good value
Cadbury and Mr Kipling most trusted
Soreen has healthier connotations
MARKET SHARE
Mr Kipling sees dip in sales
Figure 16: Leading brands in cakes and cake bars retail market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
Sweet baked goods dominated by own-label
Figure 17: Leading brands in sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Bite-size products see more NPD activity
Increasing range of flavours
Healthier bites also being explored
Reduced sugar variants still a rarity in cakes
Cakes continue to target on-the-go snacking
Seasonal products make up a fifth of new launches
Summer range of cakes from Mr Kipling
Halloween a big seasonal event for cakes
Small tarts look to attract younger shoppers
Choice of gluten-free cakes being expanded
Biscuit and chocolate brands extend presence in cakes
New flavours give hot cross buns a new twist
Taking luxury and indulgence to new levels
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Further dip in advertising spending
Figure 18: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and sweet baked goods, 2014-17
Advertising dominated by retailers
Figure 19: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and sweet baked goods, by advertiser, 2014-17
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
What you need to know
Brand map
Figure 20: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2018
Key brand metrics
Figure 21: Key metrics for selected brands, January 2018
Brand attitudes: Quality image is a strength for Mr Kipling, Cadbury and Thorntons
Figure 22: Attitudes, by brand, January 2018
Brand personality: Cadbury and Mr Kipling are the most fun brands
Figure 23: Brand personality – macro image, January 2018
Thorntons is seen as the most indulgent and special
Figure 24: Brand personality – micro image, January 2018
Brand analysis
Cadbury Cakes seen as the most delicious
Figure 25: User profile of Cadbury Cakes, January 2018
Thorntons Cakes is seen as the most indulgent brand
Figure 26: User profile of Thorntons Cakes, January 2018
Mr Kipling seen as the most traditional brand
Figure 27: User profile of Mr Kipling, January 2018
McVitie’s Cakes widely seen as an accessible and trusted brand
Figure 28: User profile of McVitie’s Cakes, January 2018
Soreen can benefit from having stronger healthy associations
Figure 29: User profile of Soreen, January 2018
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
Small cakes and cake bars are most popular
Two thirds of buyers could be persuaded to buy more
Variety and single portion packs appeal
Being freshly baked gives products extra appeal
Exciting flavours have the edge over traditional ones
High-quality ingredients most important for special occasions
Plentiful toppings/fillings also important for special occasion treats
At-work occasions and internet important for cake sales
Mood boosting a theme for promoting cakes
FREQUENCY OF EATING AND BUYING
Cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
Figure 30: Number of different types of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods eaten in the last 3 months, December 2017
Small cakes and cake bars are most popular
Figure 31: Types of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods eaten in the last 3 months, December 2017
Sweet treats are mostly eaten on an infrequent basis
Figure 32: Frequency of eating different types of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2017
Only a third of people buy at least once a week
Figure 33: Frequency of buying cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods in the last 3 months, December 2017
FACTORS THAT WOULD ENCOURAGE MORE BUYING
Two thirds of buyers could be persuaded to buy more
Figure 34: Factors that would encourage more buying of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods, December 2017
Variety and single portion packs appeal
Health-boosting ingredients can also encourage more buying
Offering sampling encourages more buying
In-store sampling would win over more than a fifth of infrequent buyers
Sampling appeals more to those interested in unusual flavours
MOST IMPORTANT PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES BY OCCASION
Being freshly baked gives products extra appeal
Figure 35: Attributes most important when buying for yourself or for sharing with others, December 2017
Exciting flavours have the edge over traditional ones
Healthier ingredients are more important for self-treating
Bite-size cake formats an attraction for sharing
FACTORS MOST IMPORTANT WHEN BUYING FOR A SPECIAL OCCASION
High-quality ingredients most important for special occasions
Figure 36: Factors most important when buying cakes and sweet baked goods for a special occasion, December 2017
Strong visual appeal makes a difference
Plentiful toppings/fillings also important for special occasion treats
BEHAVIOUR IN RELATION TO CAKES AND SWEET BAKED GOODS
At-work occasions important for cake sales
Figure 37: Behaviour in relation to cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
Personalised cakes have further growth potential
Millennials more likely to be influenced by social media
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CAKES AND SWEET BAKED GOODS
Mood boosting a theme for promoting cakes
Figure 38: Attitudes towards cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
Room for more on-the-go options in cakes
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2017-22
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 40: Leading manufacturers in cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
Figure 41: Leading manufacturers in sweet baked goods, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
APPENDIX – LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Figure 42: New product launches in the cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2017), 2014-17
Figure 43: New product launches in the cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 20 claims (sorted by 2017), 2014-17