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Baby Food and Drink - US - March 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Better regard for homemade options
Figure 1: Correspondence analysis – Food attributes, December 2017
Homemade competition to store-bought foods
Figure 2: Baby/toddler food/drink opinions, December 2017
Safety concerns perplex parents
The opportunities
Homemade options reflect interest in control, quality
Figure 3: Opinions on feeding babies/toddlers, by age, December 2017
Adult foods as a child-friendly option resonates more for moms
Figure 4: Baby/toddler food purchase opinions, December 2017
Nutrition dominates purchase factors
Figure 5: Baby/toddler drink purchase factors, December 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Category sales to grow
Formula dominates market share
The growing role of the dad
Impact of delaying families
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Baby/toddler food/drink sales expected to grow
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baby/toddler food and drink, at current prices, 2012-23
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of baby/toddler food and drink, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Formula maintains significant market share lead
Figure 8: Sales of baby food and drink, by segment, 2012-22
“Other” channel growth at supermarkets’ expense
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of baby food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Online spurring “other” channels further
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of baby food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Increasing regulation could impact products positioned as natural
Fathers’ roles expand
Figure 11: Gerber, 'Grown in Better Soil for Baby,' 2017
MARKET FACTORS 
Delayed childbearing leading to smaller households
Figure 12: Average age of mother at first birth, 1990-2015
Figure 13: Households with own children under age 18, 1960-2017
Lifestyle and gender-role changes impact the American family
Figure 14: US households, by percentage of total US households, 1960-2017
Improved economic confidence could lead birthrates higher
Figure 15: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-December 2017
Safety concerns perplex parents
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Formula maintains strong market position
Considering cost
Remaking homemade
Arsenic study may have impacted sales
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF BABY FOOD AND DRINK
Food safety scare impacts brand sales
Sales of baby food and drink by company
Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of baby food and drink, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Formula with added benefits
Figure 17: Claims on formula launches, US, 2014-17
Figure 18: Honest Company Sensitive Organic Infant Formula with Iron, 2017
Figure 19: Honest Company Sensitive Organic Infant Formula with Iron key attributes, 2017
Electrolyte adds prebiotics
Figure 20: Pedialyte Kiwi Berry Mist Electrolyte Solution, 2017
Organic promise in purees
Figure 21: Beechnut Nutrition’s Coldpuree Organic, 2017
Figure 22: Beech-nut Nutrition’s Banana, Cherry & Beet Puree attributes, versus benchmark, 2017
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Price strongly impacting consumer choice
Figure 23: Stonyfield Organic Yobaby Yogurt, 2017
Figure 24: Stonyfield Yobaby Organic Yogurt attributes, versus benchmark, 2017
WHAT’S NEXT?
Private potential
Figure 25: Baby/toddler snack launches, branded versus private label, 2013-17
Easing the preparation of homemade foods
Figure 26: Opinions on feeding babies/toddlers, by age, December 2017
Figure 27: Claims on baby/toddler food launches, 2014-17
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Homemade options emerge as competitors to packaged
Online retailers prove popular among parents
Homemade foods provide assurance
Packaged seen more as a back-up
Hispanic parents particularly concerned about health of baby/toddler drinks
Ease and convenience compel processed options
BABY/TODDLER FOOD/DRINK CONSUMPTION 
Milk usage widespread, as two thirds offer homemade foods
Figure 28: Baby/toddler food/drink consumption, December 2017
Juice, milk particularly popular in larger households
Figure 29: Baby/toddler food/drink consumption, by number of children under 18 in household, December 2017
Younger and higher-income parents notably more likely to turn to convenient baby foods
Figure 30: Baby/toddler food/drink consumption, by age and income, December 2017
Homemade resonating with Hispanic consumers
Figure 31: Baby/toddler food/drink consumption, by Hispanic origin, December 2017
Formula usage remains popular
Figure 32: Baby/toddler food frequency, December 2017
BABY/TODDLER FOOD PURCHASE LOCATION
Supermarkets, mass remain purchase location of choice for baby foods, online options command sizable portion
Figure 33: Purchase location, December 2017
Youngest parents significantly less likely to turn to non-supermarket locations
Figure 34: Purchase location, by parental age, December 2017
Online resonating as a baby food resource for higher-income households
Figure 35: Purchase location, by household income, December 2017
Hispanic parents much more likely to buy baby foods at mass merchandisers, club stores, natural
Figure 36: Purchase location, by Hispanic origin, December 2017
ATTITUDES TOWARD BABY/TODDLER FOODS
Homemade options afford control
Figure 37: Attitudes toward baby/toddler foods, December 2017
With more children, more interest in branded options for older children
Figure 38: Attitudes toward feeding babies/toddlers, by number of children under 18 in household, December 2017
BABY FOOD PURCHASE OPINIONS
Adult foods as a child-friendly option resonates more for moms
Figure 39: Baby/toddler food purchase opinions, by parental age and gender, December 2017
Younger, higher-income consumers much more likely to turn to manufactured options only as a backup
Figure 40: Baby/toddler food purchase opinions, by parental age and household income, December 2017
NUTRITION LEADS DRINK CONCERNS
Nutrition, health concerns dominate purchase factors
Figure 41: Gerber pouches with Smart Flow spout, 2017
Figure 42: Baby/toddler drink purchase factors, December 2017
Higher-income households express strong interest in specific ingredients
Figure 43: Baby/toddler drink purchase factors, by household income, December 2017
Organic of relatively little interest to rural consumers
Figure 44: Baby/toddler drink purchase factors, by location, December 2017
Sugar content and brands resonating with Black consumers
Figure 45: Baby/toddler drink purchase factors, by race, December 2017
Nutrition, vitamin and mineral content of particular interest to Hispanic consumers
Figure 46: Baby/toddler drink purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, December 2017
FOOD ATTRIBUTES
Jarred, pouch foods regarded as easy, processed; formula as expensive; homemade as more natural and customizable
Figure 47: Gerber, 'Grown in Better Soil for Baby,' 2017
Figure 48: Correspondence analysis – Food attributes, December 2017
Homemade options resonate strongly, though ease of preparation factors strongly in jar, pouch options
Figure 49: Food attributes, December 2017
Homemade much more associated with trust
Figure 50: Food attributes, by household income, December 2017
Ease of use resonating in jar, pouch options
Figure 51: Food attributes, by Hispanic origin, December 2017
Brand, health claims strongly impact baby drink interest
Figure 52: TURF analysis – Drink purchase factors, December 2017
Healthy attributes factor strongly in consumer food interest
Figure 53: TURF analysis – Food purchase factors, December 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 54: Total US sales and forecast of baby food and drink, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby formula, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby formula, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby food, snacks, juice, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby food, snacks, juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby electrolytes, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby electrolytes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 62: Total US retail sales of baby food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 63: Total US retail sales of baby food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 64: Multi-outlet sales of baby food and drink, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 65: Multi-outlet sales of baby formula, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 66: Multi-outlet sales of baby food, snacks, and juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of baby electrolytes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
Figure 68: Food attributes, December 2017
TURF ANALYSIS – METHODOLOGY
Figure 69: Table – TURF analysis – Drink purchase factors, December 2017
Figure 70: Table – TURF analysis – Food purchase factors, December 2017

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