Dining Out - Canada - March 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definitions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
18-24s: the most likely to be regulars, the most likely to feel the financial impact
Figure 1: Select attitudes towards patronizing restaurants, 18-24s vs overall, December 2017
Parents have differing needs depending on their children’s life stage
Figure 2: Dining out for weekend lunch and weekday dinners, by age of children at home vs non-parents, December 2017
Quebecers: eating out is less of a reward, but no less meaningful
Figure 3: Select attitudes towards eating out, Quebec vs overall, December 2017
The opportunities
iGen women are regulars and have cravings for a variety of vendors
Figure 4: patronizing select foodservice vendors, men 18-24 vs women 18-24, December 2017
I want some! Parents have cravings too
Figure 5: Reasons for patronizing restaurants, parents vs non-parents, December 2017
Fast food venues – Don’t fix what isn’t broken, give ‘em more of what they want
Figure 6: Patronage of fast food venues, by income, December 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Foodservice sector sees modest growth
Time constraints on parents mean greater reliance on foodservice
An aging population may be a benefit for casual dining
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Restaurant sales continue to increase
Figure 7: Total Canada sales and fan chart forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 8: Canada value sales for restaurants and other eating places, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
MARKET FACTORS 
Positive momentum in the economy means more spending power
Figure 9: Canada’s unemployment rate, August 2012-August 2017
Canadian perception of financial health improves moving into 2018
Figure 10: Perception of financial health, February 2016-18
Appealing to the emotional side will be key as cost of eating out continues to rise
Figure 11: Monthly movement in selected components of the Canadian Consumer Price Index, seasonally adjusted, December 2012-December 2017
Parents are becoming increasingly time-strapped
An aging population may benefit casual dining
Figure 12: Population aged 0-14 and over 65, 1995-2035*
HMR options may be cutting in to the competition
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Canadians love eating out
Food trends are more visible than ever
Minimum wage increases will have an impact
Foodservice vendors take a stand
WHAT’S WORKING?
Dining out is the top splurge for Canadians
Figure 13: Select attitudes towards patronizing restaurants, December 2017
The emotional connection with foodservice: spotlight on Tim Hortons
Figure 14: Tim Hortons True Stories TV Commercial – Dad's Place, March 2016
Figure 15: Tim Hortons Guests Share Their Perfect Pairings, February 2017
Food has never been so visible
Figure 16: Reasons for patronizing restaurants, women 18-24 vs overall, December 2017
Social media is keep trendy foods and ingredients top of mind
Rainbow colours take over social media feeds: Starbucks Unicorn Frappuccino
So does black (charcoal) ice cream
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Restaurants brace for change with minimum wage increases
There’s a real cost to eating out for 18-24s
Figure 17: Select attitudes towards patronizing restaurants, 18-24s vs overall, December 2017
Opportunities to connect with iGens with snacking
Figure 18: $5 fill ups: crowd pleaser, August 2017
Gamifying discounts will also appeal to iGens
Lunches are a primary meal occasions, but are under threat
Figure 19: Dining out occasions (any day), December 2017
WHAT’S NEXT?
Fast food chains sell hardware
Figure 20: Introducing the Bling Mac, February 2018
Foodservice vendors tackle real life issues: spotlight on Burger King
Burger King and anti-bullying
Figure 21: Bullying Jr., October 2017
Burger King and net neutrality
Figure 22: Whopper Neutrality, January 2018
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Quick and casual options prove most common
Lunches and dinners drive patronage, though young consumers are keen on non-traditional occasions
Restaurant patronage stems from both physical and emotional needs
Chain restaurants and independent restaurants satiate different interests
WHERE CANADIANS ARE EATING
Fast and casual options more commonly patronized
Figure 23: Venues, December 2017
Attention to health may be hindering older women’s interest in fast food
Women aged 55+ are least likely to patronize fast food restaurants
Figure 24: Fast food venues, by gender and age, December 2017
Healthy options and smaller portion sizes will appeal to women aged 55+
Older and more affluent consumers driving patronage of casual dining
Figure 25: Patronizing casual dining restaurants, by age and income, December 2017
Gains to be had by catering to the in-person experience to a maturing audience
Fast food venues can stay in their lane
Patronage doesn’t differ by income
Figure 26: Patronage of fast food venues, by income, December 2017
Don’t fix what ain’t broke, give them more of what they already want
Figure 27: BMxB Limited Edition Collaboration – Touch It, January 2018
FREQUENCY OF RESTAURANT PATRONIZATION
Patronizing restaurants is almost a routine activity for many
Figure 28: Frequency of patronizing restaurants (net any restaurant), December 2017
Gains to be had by catering to iGen women as they’re already there
Figure 29: Frequency of patronizing any restaurants, men and women 18-24 vs overall, December 2017
Figure 30: patronizing select foodservice vendors, men 18-24 vs women 18-24, December 2017
Tantalizing cravings through social media to win over iGen women
Parents are reliant on foodservice – Logistics and emotions play a role
Figure 31: Patronizing select foodservice vendors, parents vs overall, December 2017
Foodservice patronage serves different needs for different occasions
DAYPARTS: WHEN CANADIANS EAT AT RESTAURANTS
Dinners and lunches are the primary meal occasions for Canadians
Figure 32: Dining out occasions (any day), December 2017
The lunchtime competition is stiff – Opportunities to leverage health and downtime
Healthy options will appeal
Let’s take a break! Opportunities to appeal to those who want a quick getaway
Parents have differing needs depending on their children’s life stage
Figure 33: Dining out for weekend lunch and weekday dinners, by age of children at home vs non-parents, December 2017
Going out for food is a family decision – Restaurants need to have kid appeal
18-24s drive non-traditional occasions
Figure 34: Dining out for non-traditional meal occasions, by men and women aged 18-24 vs overall, December 2017
Brunches could draw iGen women to casual dining venues
REASONS FOR PATRONIZING RESTAURANTS
Eating is about physical satiation, but is also emotionally gratifying
Figure 35: Reasons for patronizing restaurants, December 2017
Dining out is a highly social experience – In their words
Socializing is a key aspect for women aged 35+
Figure 36: Patronizing restaurants for social time with friends and family, by age and gender, December 2017
Make it a night out for Boomer women: dinner and a live theatre performance
Figure 37: Agreement with ‘The social aspect of eating out is important to me’, Women 55+ vs overall, December 2017
Cravings and time drive parents to restaurants
Taking a bite out of the time crunch will appeal to moms
Parents have cravings too
Figure 38: Reasons for patronizing restaurants: to satisfy a craving, parents vs non-parents, December 2017
It really is an experiential and emotional thing for Chinese Canadians
Figure 39: Reasons for patronizing restaurants, Chinese Canadians vs overall, December 2017
Figure 40: Select attitudes towards eating out, Chinese Canadians vs overall, December 2017
Elevating the experiential should yield gains
Figure 41: Meant to #EatTogether, December 2017
For Quebecers, eating out is more routine, but no less meaningful
Figure 42: Reasons for patronizing restaurants as a “treat to myself”, Quebec vs overall, December 2017
Figure 43: Select attitudes towards eating out, Quebec vs overall, December 2017
Mealtime is no time to rush – Quebecers are unique in their approach to eating
Messages touting the satiation of the mind and body will resonate
MOTIVATORS FOR PATRONIZING CHAIN RESTAURANTS 
Predictability and consistency are draws
Figure 44: Motivations for patronizing chain restaurants, December 2017
Men like predictability
Figure 45: ‘Consistent taste’ a motivator for patronizing chain restaurants, by gender, December 2017
Chain restaurants make it easy to dine with kids – Parents of 6-11s
Figure 46: ‘Ease of dining out with kids’ a motivator for patronizing chain restaurants, by age of children in the household, December 2017
Showing off fun times on social media should gain the attention of other parents
MOTIVATORS FOR PATRONIZING INDEPENDENT RESTAURANTS 
Unique offerings and supporting local are drivers
Figure 47: Motivations for patronizing independent restaurants, December 2017
Independent restaurants have a personal touch – In their words
Acknowledging local ties should bring gains
Figure 48: TURF analysis, motivations for patronizing independent restaurants, December 2017
Consumers have taken a stand to support local businesses
Older consumers care more about supporting local
Figure 49: ‘Desire to support local businesses’ as a reason for patronizing independent restaurants, over-55s vs overall, December 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – TURF ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
Methodology
Figure 50: Table – TURF analysis –Independent motivators, December 2017