Air Care - US - February 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The market
Market contracts slightly from 2016-17; slow future projected growth
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of air care products, at current prices, 2012-22
The issues
Unscented preferences, absence of odors prohibit use for some
Figure 2: Select usage barriers, November 2017
Importance of discounts signals disengagement in the category
Figure 2: Select purchase Influencers, by product type, November 2017
The opportunities
Emphasize fun and celebration to widen penetration and increase demand
Yankee Candle is one example of a brand whose products embrace fun and celebration, as unique scents such as Peeps allow adults to act like kids again, and a wide variety of scents encourage experimentation (see What’s Working?).
Figure 3: Select usage drivers, November 2017
Strengthen product association with specific odors to compel users
Figure 4: Select smell sources, by select product usage, November 2017
Target certain demographics to reach a captive audience
Figure 5: Select product usage, by those aged 18-34, parental status, and Hispanic origin, November 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Market contracts slightly from 2016-17, slow future projected growth
Candle sales decline while home, vehicle air fresheners grow
Smoking trends, scent delivery from other industries impact market
Consumer confidence levels, demographic growth help industry
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Market contracts slightly from 2016-17, future is slow
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of air care products, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of air care products, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Safety issues, declines within Glade challenge candle sales
Figure 8: Total US retail sales of air care products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-17
Brand growth, innovations help home air freshener sales
Momentum slows for vehicle air freshener sales
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of air care products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-17 (est)
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Smoking declines are good news for public health, affect demand
Figure 10: Smokers in the US, by high school students and adults, 1965-2014
Scented surface cleaners, trash bags hinder air care market
Air pollution issues bring opportunity to widen health benefits
MARKET FACTORS 
Consumer confidence bodes well for spending in air care
Figure 11: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-December 2017
Hispanic, Black population growth is positive for air care market
Figure 12: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2017-22
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Market share leader experiences flat sales and share growth
Products, brands addressing usage drivers experience growth
Broad-line candles, private label air fresheners beat out by more expensive options
Hygge, essential oils begin to shape the industry
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF AIR CARE
Most MULO manufacturers struggle to achieve growth
Leader S.C. Johnson sees flat sales and share growth
P&G capitalizes on market trends to achieve growth
Figure 13: Multi-outlet sales of air care, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING? 
Products addressing (and communicating) consumer needs grow
Air care items that create a pleasant ambiance see growth
Brands encourage experimenting with scents and having fun
Subtler scents gain traction as some prefer an unscented space
Figure 14: Febreze ONE fabric and air mist commercial, October 30, 2017
Male-positioned air care products establish a presence
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Specialty brands challenge broad-line candles such as Glade
Private label air fresheners struggle to keep pace
WHAT’S NEXT?
New wave of demand for air care possible as hygge takes hold
Mass brands make the leap into essential oils, diffusers
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Use of air care is widespread
Usage drivers are both functional and experiential
Users rely on different products to treat various odors
Users appreciate promotions, experimenting in the category
Category users prioritize scent, discounts regardless of format
Preferring an unscented space is top usage barrier
PRODUCT USAGE AND FREQUENCY
Products addressing usage drivers have highest penetration
Figure 15: Product usage, November 2017
Category enjoys frequent use
Figure 16: Usage frequency of air fresheners, wax melts, and scented candles, November 2017
Women are heavier category users than men
Figure 17: Select product usage, by gender, November 2017
18-34s, parents use wider variety of air care products
Figure 18: Select product usage, by age, November 2017
Figure 19: Select product usage, by parental status, November 2017
Hispanics, Black consumers are above-average category users
Figure 20: Select product usage, by Hispanic origin and race, November 2017
USAGE DRIVERS
Primary usage drivers are two-pronged
Secondary usage drivers address persistent smells, cleanliness
Supplemental usage drivers focus on fun and celebration
Figure 21: Usage drivers, November 2017
Heavier users report more reasons for using air care
Figure 22: Usage drivers, by usage group, November 2017
Women cite experiential drivers, men take functional approach
Figure 2: Usage drivers, by age and gender, November 2017
A clean home is a heightened priority for Hispanics, Black consumers
Figure 23: Usage drivers, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
SMELL SOURCES
Air care used more for temporary odors
Figure 24: Smell sources, November 2017
Consumers rely on certain products to eliminate specific smells
Figure 25: Select smell sources, by select product usage, November 2017
Air care use for specific odors varies by age group, life stage
Figure 26: Select smell sources, by age, November 2017
Pet ownership, smoking explain differences by race and Hispanic origin
Figure 27: Select smell sources, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
PURCHASE BEHAVIOR
Category is promotional, experimental to users
Figure 28: Purchase behavior, November 2017
Reasons for purchase inform behaviors
Figure 29: Purchase behavior, by select usage drivers, November 2017
Age influences purchase behavior
Figure 30: Select purchase behaviors, by age, November 2017
Parents are promotionally driven, experiential
Figure 31: Select purchase behaviors, by parental status, November 2017
PURCHASE INFLUENCERS
Purchase influencers similar across products
Scent dictates air care purchases, followed by discounts
Secondary criteria can further differentiate products
Figure 32: Purchase influencers, by product, November 2017
18-34s are prime audience for new air care launches
Figure 33: Select purchase influencers, by age and parental status, November 2017
USAGE BARRIERS
Unscented preferences are primary barrier to use
Some don’t have odors to eliminate
Figure 34: Usage barriers, November 2017
Female non-users report more strongly felt barriers
Figure 35: Select usage barriers, by gender, November 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 36: Total US sales and forecast of air care products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 37: Total US sales and forecast of air care products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 38: Total US retail sales and forecast of candles, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 39: Total US retail sales and forecast of home air fresheners, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 40: Total US retail sales of air care products, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
Figure 41: Total US retail sales of air care products, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 42: Multi-outlet sales of candles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 43: Multi-outlet sales of home air fresheners, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 44: Multi-outlet sales of vehicle air fresheners, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
TURF analyses
Methodology
Figure 45: TURF Analysis – Purchase influencers for wax melts, November 2018
Figure 46: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase influencers for wax melts, November 2018
Figure 47: TURF Analysis – Purchase influencers for air fresheners, November 2018
Figure 48: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase influencers for air fresheners, November 2018
Figure 49: TURF Analysis – Purchase influencers for scented candles, November 2018
Figure 50: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase influencers for scented candles, November 2018
Figure 51: Target air care seasonal end-cap display, December 2017