Seasonal Dining Trends - US - January 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Retail maintains an edge for seasonal purchases
Figure 1: Seasonal purchase in foodservice versus retail, November 2017
Majority of consumers learn about seasonal offerings on premise
Figure 2: Seasonal menu item discovery, by age, November 2017
The opportunities
Instagram, Pinterest, and Snapchat are key social platforms for reaching the seasonal consumer
Figure 3: Seasonal consumer demographics and social media behavior, November 2017
A seasonal halo
Figure 4: Seasonal attitudes, “Seasonal menu items feel like a treat,” November 2017
Coffee shops are a key destination for seasonal consumers
Figure 5: Restaurant visitation by seasonal diners, November 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
RTD coffee beverages focus on seasonal flavors
Seasonal menu items create a treat-based appeal, but they also serve as a signal of quality
Retail leads in seasonal salty snack purchases, but can foodservice create its own niche?
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Grocery stores maintain an edge in seasonal snacking, but foodservice operators have a unique set of opportunities
Figure 6: Seasonal purchase in foodservice versus retail, “Salty snacks,” November 2017
Foodservice operators lean into seasonal RTD beverages for retail
Figure 7: Seasonal purchase in foodservice versus retail, “Coffee Beverages,” November 2017
Third wave coffee companies bring a seasonal focus to retail
Figure 8: Purchase intent for RTD coffee and seasonal pumpkin offerings, January 2017 – December 2017
Fruit forward summer flavors meet RTD coffee
Figure 9: Purchase intent for RTD coffee and seasonal fruit-based offerings, January 2017 – December 2017
MARKET FACTORS 
The seasonal cost
The real food movement and the seasonal impact
Demand can impact traditional seasonality
KEY TRENDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
The confluence of seasonality with virality
Determining the perfect seasonal time frame
Bringing seasonal produce to food deserts
WHAT’S WORKING?
Seasonal trends meet viral food sensations
Figure 10: Social media analysis of Starbucks’ Christmas Tree Frappuccino and Starbucks’ Zombie Frappuccino
Simple tweaks can give everyday flavors seasonal appeal
Tea gets seasonal
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Managing a seasonal time frame amid competition
WHAT’S NEXT?
Seasonal produce in food deserts
A seasonal approach to meat
Figure 11: Social media analysis of Arby’s Elk Sandwich
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
The on-premise experience drives seasonal awareness
The seasonal claim can create comfort around new flavors
Sweet is the preferred flavor profile across seasons
A DEEPER LOOK: THE SEASONAL CONSUMER
Two in five consumers report purchasing seasonal menu items
Figure 12: Seasonal Purchases, November 2017
Young women are more likely to purchase seasonal menu items
Figure 13: Seasonal consumer demographics and social media behavior, November 2017
Women that visit fast casuals and coffee shops are more motivated by comforting menu items
Figure 14: Seasonal motivators – CHAID – Tree output, November 2017
The affordability of seasonal menu items shapes purchase habits
Figure 15: Seasonal consumer demographics, by age and income, November 2017
Casual dining needs to focus on the 55+ crowd
Figure 16: Seasonal consumer restaurant visitation, November 2017
SEASONAL PREFERENCES OF COFFEE/TEA CONSUMERS
Coffee shops are a key destination for seasonal consumers
Figure 17: Restaurant visitation by seasonal diners, November 2017
Instagram is a key social channel for attracting a seasonal coffee consumer
Figure 18: Seasonal coffee/tea consumer demographics and social media behavior, November 2017
Figure 19: Seasonal coffee/tea consumer, seasonal marketing focus, November 2017
Figure 20: Total followers and number of engagements for Starbucks on Facebook and Instagram, Oct. 1, 2017 – Dec. 6, 2017
Sweet and spicy in the fall and tangy in the summer lead in flavor preferences
Figure 21: Seasonal coffee/tea consumer, seasonal beverage flavor preferences, November 2017
RETAIL VERSUS FOODSERVICE
Retail maintains an edge in seasonal purchase habits
Figure 22: Seasonal purchase in foodservice versus retail, November 2017
Younger consumers lean more toward foodservice for baked goods, but still rely on retail
Figure 23: Seasonal purchase in foodservice versus retail, seasonal baked goods, by age and gender, November 2017
Can soup make a comeback among Millennials?
Figure 24: Seasonal purchase in foodservice versus retail, seasonal soup, November 2017
Targeting consumers’ mood with seasonal beer
Figure 25: Seasonal purchase in foodservice versus retail, seasonal beer, by age and gender, November 2017
REASONS FOR PURCHASING SEASONAL DISHES
Limited time availability is integral for seasonal purchase habits
Figure 26: Seasonal motivators, November 2017
Men more likely to rely on the seasonal classics
Figure 27: Seasonal motivators, by gender, November 2017
Figure 28: Seasonal motivators – CHAID – Tree output, November 2017
Restaurant segments shape seasonal preferences
Figure 29: Seasonal motivators, by restaurant segment, November 2017
SEASONAL MARKETING
Restaurant menus lead in driving seasonal menu item awareness
Figure 30: Seasonal menu item discovery, November 2017
Television commercials can still reach younger consumers, but not necessarily in a traditional format
Figure 31: Seasonal menu item discovery, by age, November 2017
Figure 32: seasonal menu item discovery by social media, index against all diners, November 2017
SEASONAL FLAVOR BEVERAGE PREFERENCES AND ASSOCIATIONS
Seasonal flavor trends lean toward the classics, but there’s room for innovation
Figure 33: Seasonal beverage flavor preferences, November 2017
Men display an interest in savory beverage profiles
Figure 34: Seasonal spring and summer beverage flavor preferences, by gender, November 2017
Figure 35: Seasonal fall and winter beverage flavor preferences, by gender, November 2017
Millennial flavor preferences are not cut-and-dry
Figure 36: Seasonal fall and winter beverage flavor preferences, by older, younger, and non-Millennials, November 2017
Figure 37: Seasonal spring and summer beverage flavor preferences, by older, younger, and non-Millennials, November 2017
Figure 38: Social media analysis for Tim Horton’s Spicy Buffalo Latte
Hispanics lean toward sour flavor influences in the spring/summer
Figure 39: Seasonal fall and winter beverage flavor preferences, by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, November 2017
Figure 40: Seasonal spring and summer beverage flavor preferences, by Hispanic and non-Hispanic, November 2017
SEASONAL ATTITUDES
Fall/winter drive seasonal comfort
Figure 41: Seasonal dining attitudes, November 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – RIVAL IQ
APPENDIX – INFEGY METHODOLOGY
Theme Definitions:
APPENDIX – CHAID ANALYSIS
Methodology
Figure 42: Seasonal motivators – CHAID – Table output, November 2017
Figure 43: Seasonal motivators – CHAID – Table output, November 2017