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Frozen Breakfast Foods - US - August 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Handheld options cater to portability demand
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2012-22
Restaurants encouraging more breakfast consumption
Figure 2: Away-from-home (AFH) breakfast behavior changes from one year ago, April 2016
Increase in childless households portends a need for change
Figure 3: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
The opportunities
Breakfast anytime
Figure 4: Opinions, by age, May 2017
Portable potential
Figure 5: Opinions, by age, May 2017
Easing preparation
Figure 6: Opinions, by number of children under 18 in household, May 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Portability points to category's opportunities
Other retail channels encroaching upon supermarkets
Restaurant competition potentially opening breakfast to new dayparts
Catering to smaller households
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Handheld options point to consumer demands for category
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Stagnation for entrees and waffles
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Other channels outpace supermarkets’ growth
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and market share of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Competition from foodservice and even homemade breakfast options
Figure 12: Away-from-home breakfast behavior changes from one year ago, April 2016
Other at-home options vie for attention at breakfast
Figure 13: Breakfast food purchase, May 2016
MARKET FACTORS 
Hispanics, particularly Millennials, opt for frozen breakfast options
Figure 14: US population by Hispanic origin, 2017
Number of households with children continues decline
Figure 15: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
One company grows as a pair struggle
Entrees easing preparation
Recall negatively impacting Aunt Jemima frozen brands
Potential in ethical claims
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF FROZEN BREAKFAST FOODS
Tyson retains category lead, as Kellogg and General Mills stumble
Sales of frozen breakfast foods by company
Figure 16: MULO sales of frozen breakfast foods, by leading companies, in millions, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 17: MULO sales of frozen breakfast foods, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Breakfast entrees resonating
Figure 18: Amy’s Breakfast Scramble with Meatless Sausage & Country-Style Potatoes
Private label handhelds leveraging portability
Figure 19: Aldi’s Breakfast Best Mozzarella & Bacon Mini Bagels
Figure 20: Date published for frozen breakfast launches, branded vs private label, 2012-17
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Recall impacts Aunt Jemima frozen brands
Figure 21: Aunt Jemima frozen breakfast entrees
WHAT’S NEXT?
Ethical claim potential
Figure 22: Frozen breakfast food launches with ethical claims, 2017
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Consumption on weekends varies from weekdays
Mass merchandisers leveraging one-stop-shop appeal
Leveraging convenience along with health
Avoiding artificial in frozen
Embracing the real
Breakfast importance low among younger consumers
CONSUMPTION OF FROZEN BREAKFAST FOODS 
Portable options prove popular during the week
Figure 23: Consumption, May 2017
Popularity among households with children
Figure 24: Consumption, by presence and age of children in the household, May 2017
Older consumers turning to other breakfast options
Figure 25: Consumption, by age, May 2017
Figure 26: Opinions of frozen options and meals, by age, Fall 2016
Strong relevance among Hispanic Millennials
Figure 27: Consumption, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
PURCHASE LOCATION
Non-traditional retailers presenting opportunity and challenges
Figure 28: Purchase location, May 2017
Convenience even impacting purchase location for younger consumers
Figure 29: Purchase location, by age, May 2017
Walmart, dollar stores factor notably for lower-income households
Figure 30: Purchase location, by household income, May 2017
Hispanic Millennials turning to mass merchandisers and supermarkets
Figure 31: Purchase location, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
REASONS FOR CONSUMPTION
Convenience and ease weigh heavily among consumers
Figure 32: Reasons for consumption, May 2017
Potential in healthy convenience
Figure 33: Important attributes, May 2017
Healthy convenience factoring in Hispanic Millennial purchase
Figure 34: Important attributes, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
IMPORTANT LOW-IN ATTRIBUTES
Consumers also avoiding artificial in frozen
Figure 35: Important attributes, May 2017
Hispanic Millennials seeking fewer "low-in" options
Figure 36: Important attributes, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
INCREASING PURCHASE
Cleaner labels may resonate, as does value and trial
Figure 37: Increasing purchase, May 2017
Younger consumers appear to be avoiding wasted food, time, effort
Figure 38: Increasing purchase, by age, May 2017
Real approach to reach Hispanic consumers…and others
Figure 39: Increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
OPINIONS OF FROZEN BREAKFAST FOODS
Frozen options challenged to find distinct selling points
Figure 40: Opinions, May 2017
Breakfast’s importance waning, but usage could expand
Figure 41: Opinions, by age, May 2017
Potently portable
Figure 42: Opinions, by age, May 2017
Time saving resonates—to a point
Figure 43: Opinions, by number of children under 18 in household, May 2017
Reaching Hispanic consumers with proof
Figure 44: Opinions, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
APPENDIX—DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 45: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 47: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrees, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrees, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast handhelds, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast handhelds, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen waffles, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen waffles, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 54: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
Figure 55: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 56: US supermarket sales of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 57: US sales of frozen breakfast foods through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 58: MULO sales of frozen breakfast entrees, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 59: MULO sales of frozen breakfast handhelds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 60: MULO sales of frozen waffles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Figure 61: Opinions of frozen options and meals, by gender
Figure 62: Opinions of frozen options and meals, by age
Figure 63: Opinions of frozen options and meals, by Hispanic origin
Figure 64: Opinions of frozen options and meals, by household income
Figure 65: Opinions of frozen options and meals, by education
Figure 66: Opinions of frozen options and meals, by presence and number of children in household

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