Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks - US - August 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Spoonable yogurt declines 6.8% from 2015 – 2017
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2015-17
Newer yogurt segments and flavors have a lower perception of health
Figure 2: Yogurt perceptions, May 2017
Purchase often based on habitual preferences
Figure 3: Purchase/consumption behaviors, May 2017
Added sugars remain a concern
Figure 4: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
The opportunities
Yogurt drinks and kefir expected to continue strong growth and drive the category
Figure 5: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Innovative textures and flavors can expand the market
Figure 6: Purchase/consumption behaviors, May 2017
Consumers still seek protein first, also yogurts with probiotics and low sugar
Figure 7: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, May 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Overall sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks are expected to decline in 2017
Momentum of yogurt drinks and kefir will eventually begin to wane
Spoonable dairy takes a hit
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Sales are expected to slightly decrease by 2.5% in 2017
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Yogurt drinks/kefir steals share from spoonable
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, market share by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Yogurt drinks growth continues, spoonable yogurt stabilizes
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Supermarkets and other channels see similar sales patterns
Figure 13: US supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at current prices, 2012-17
Category sees growth in natural channel
Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 5/24/15-5/21/17
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
High-protein’ products increase yogurt competition, especially Greek
Figure 15: Seeking In Better-For-You Foods, June 2016
Diverse breakfast palates and behaviors support millennial engagement
Figure 16: Behavior changes, by Millennials and non-Millennials, May 2016
Increased snacking positions category at advantage
Figure 17: Perceptions of yogurt types, may 2017
MARKET FACTORS 
FDA delays nutrition label update
Millennials are becoming parents
Figure 18: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2016
The iGeneration emerges as a key consumer group
Figure 19: Population by generation, 2012-22
Obesity rates continue to rise among adults
Figure 20: Prevalence of obesity among adults aged 20 and over: US 1997-2015
Changing face of health
Figure 21: Self-perceptions, by respondents with a positive outlook on life, October 2016
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Group Danone dominates, widens the gap
General Mills struggles tied to Yoplait, stalled innovation
Chobani rallied by drink offerings
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF YOGURT AND YOGURT DRINKS
Category leader Group Danone gains through drinks, acquisition
Figure 22: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2016 and 2017
Figure 23: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, market share 2017
Chobani approaches General Mills as Yoplait sees sharp decline
Smaller brands see big success
Figure 24: MULO sales of spoonable yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Chobani gains with entry in drink segment, expands with product extensions
Figure 25: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, market share change by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Small brands, private label get the jump on established brands in drinks
Figure 26: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S WORKING?
Yogurt drinks and kefir gain traction
Figure 27: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
International yogurts attract consumers seeking authenticity and texture
Mixable yogurts add excitement to a slowing Greek yogurt category
Dessert flavors elicit interest and excitement in the category
Figure 28: Consumer perception of sweet flavored yogurts vs total category, Jul 2017
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Dairy spoonable yogurts take a hit
Figure 29: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, change in market share by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 24, 2015 – May 21, 2017
WHAT’S NEXT?
Non-dairy yogurt can appeal to consumers outside of dietary restrictive reasons
Full-fat yogurts moving forward at full force
Citrus flavors add pizzazz to traditional fruit options
Figure 30: Yogurt new product or new variety/range extension launch, by flavor and percent of total, 2013-16
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Young adults have a wider yogurt portfolio
Yogurt moves beyond breakfast
Spoonable yogurt is seen as more nutritious than yogurt drinks
Most yogurt consumers are habitual purchasers, one third open to new yogurt options
Claims of low fat and low sugar may not drive purchase
Consumers’ ideal yogurt contains fruit and protein
YOGURT/YOGURT DRINK PURCHASE
Greek, fruit flavored yogurts are most common types purchased
Figure 31: Yogurt Purchase, May 2017
Younger adults branch into new varieties of yogurt
Figure 32: Yogurt purchase, by age, May 2017
Yogurt drink and kefir consumers purchase more yogurt overall
Figure 33: Yogurt purchase, by yogurt purchase, May 2017
Hispanic millennials are a strong target for yogurt and yogurt drinks
Figure 34: Yogurt purchase, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
YOGURT PERCEPTIONS
Beyond Breakfast
Yogurt expands beyond the breakfast occasion
Figure 35: Perceptions, May 2017
Younger consumers use decadent flavored yogurts as a “healthier” dessert option
Figure 36: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
Flavor innovation has men eating more yogurt
Figure 37: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by age and gender, May 2017
Multicultural consumers see nutritious aspects of dessert flavored yogurts
Figure 38: Yogurt perceptions, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
Health perception
Spoonable yogurts are thought to be better for you than yogurt drinks
Figure 39: Yogurt perceptions, May 2017
Traditional, spoonable types still hold the health halo
Figure 40: Yogurt perceptions, May 2017
Consumers think spoonable Greek yogurt is more nutritious than drinkable
Figure 41: Yogurt perceptions of spoonable Greek and drinkable Greek yogurts, May 2017
More than a quarter of 18-34-year-olds see non-dairy yogurt as nutritious
Figure 42: Yogurt perceptions, non-dairy yogurt, by age and gender, May 2017
Multicultural consumers see nutritional perks of yogurt drinks
Figure 43: Yogurt perceptions, yogurt drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
Good for kids
Parents see nutritional value and multiple usage occasions for yogurt drinks
Figure 44: Yogurt perceptions, yogurt drinks, May 2017, by demographics
Fathers also perceive drinkable Greek yogurt as good for kids
Figure 45: Yogurt perceptions, good for kids, by gender and parental status, May 2017
On-the-go
Ease of consuming on-the-go is unique to yogurt drinks
Figure 46: yogurt drinks and kefir products, by unit pack size, Jan 2014-June 2017
18-24-year-olds realize the portable benefit of yogurt drinks
Figure 47: Yogurt perceptions, convenience by age, May 2017
Parents with 3+ children appreciate the convenience of yogurt drinks
Figure 48: Yogurt perceptions, yogurt drinks, by number of children, May 2017
Correspondence analysis
Methodology
Newer yogurt segments and flavors have identity issue
Figure 49: Correspondence analysis – Yogurt perceptions, May 2017
YOGURT BEHAVIORS
Motivations
Nutritional attributes and aided digestion drive yogurt consumption
Figure 50: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2017
Younger consumers turn to yogurt for weight loss
Figure 51: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
Urban consumers find a variety of uses for yogurt
Figure 52: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by living area, May 2017
More than a quarter of Hispanic consumers use yogurt as an ingredient
Figure 53: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
Habits
Figure 54: Purchase/consumption behaviors, May 2017
Men are less habitual yogurt shoppers
Figure 55: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by gender, May 2017
While somewhat overwhelming, the number of yogurts available does not hinder urban consumption
Figure 56: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by living area, May 2017
Asians are mixing up their flavor choices
Figure 57: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
YOGURT ATTITUDES 
Fat
Majority of consumers do not claim to prefer low-fat varieties
Figure 58: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2017
Low-fat preference increases in importance with age
Figure 59: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
Sugar
Nearly one third of consumers seek yogurt with low sugar
Figure 60: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2017
Older consumers care about amount of sugar, not kind
Figure 61: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
Women seek out low-fat and low-sugar yogurts; men prefer natural and organic
Figure 62: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by gender, May 2017
Ingredients
Nearly one third of 18-24-year-olds choose yogurt based on texture
Figure 63: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
Most consumers aren’t looking for organic yogurts
Figure 64: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, Seek organic, by gender and age, May 2017
Hispanics want natural and organic ingredients
Figure 65: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
IDEAL YOGURT
Yogurt type
Fruit flavored and Greek yogurts top the list for ideal types
Figure 66: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt type, May 2017
An increased repertoire makes it hard to play favorites
Figure 67: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation - Yogurt type, by repertoire of yogurt purchase, May 2017
One in five moms desire dessert flavored yogurts
Figure 68: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt type, by gender and parental status, May 2017
Asians seek plain/unflavored yogurts
Figure 69: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, yogurt type, by race, May 2017
Attributes
Protein is the most desired yogurt attribute
Figure 70: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, May 2017
Low sugar and probiotics appeal to older yogurt consumers
Figure 71: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, by age, May 2017
Rural consumers want yogurt to help aid digestion and provide vitamins and minerals
Figure 72: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, by living area, May 2017
Black consumers want added vitamins and minerals in yogurt
Figure 73: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, by race, May 2017
Ingredients
Fruit mixed in is preferred over sweet or savory mix-ins
Figure 74: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, ingredients, May 2017
Younger men seek indulgence and texture
Figure 75: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, ingredients, by age and gender, May 2017
As kids get older, parents’ preferences change
Figure 76: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, ingredients, by age of children, May 2017
Sweet ingredients appeal to Hispanic yogurt consumers
Figure 77: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, ingredients, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 78: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of spoonable yogurt, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 79: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of yogurt drinks and kefir, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 81: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks and kefir, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks and kefir, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 86: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
Figure 87: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 88: US supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 89: US sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 90: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2016 and 2017
Figure 91: MULO sales of spoonable yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 92: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Figure 93: Food and health attitudes, July 2016-March 2017