Soup - US - June 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Struggling category kept afloat by small segments
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of soup, at current prices, 2012-22
Packaged soup struggles with image
Figure 2: Soup attitudes, soup comparisons, March 2017
Cooking enthusiasm impacts the category
Figure 3: Soup attitudes, made from scratch, March 2017
Lack of interest in soup innovation
Figure 4: Soup innovation, March 2017
The opportunities
Refrigerated soup shows promise
Figure 5: MULO sales of refrigerated fresh soup, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Focus on the positives and the lack of negatives
Figure 6: Soup attributes, health attributes, March 2017
Convenience packaging broadens opportunity
Figure 7: Soup innovation, microwavable and resealable packaging, March 2017
Growth opportunities to come from diversity in occasion
Figure 8: Soup behavior, season, weather, and when sick, March 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Soup sales projected to remain stationary
Refrigerated/frozen soups, wet broth/stock, are areas of opportunity
Foodservice soup part competition, part inspiration for packaged soup
Some packaged soups shunned for high sodium content, processed perception
In-store positioning hurts RTS wet and condensed soup, helps refrigerated
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Soup sales remain stagnant
Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of soup, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Category sales hurt by RTS wet and condensed declines
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of soup, by segment share, at current prices, 2017
Soups in natural supermarkets finding success
Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of soup, by total and by category, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 3/22/15 and 3/19/17
Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of soup, by labeling/claims on packaging, at current prices, % change, rolling 52-weeks ending 3/22/15 and 3/19/17
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Foodservice soup part competition, part inspiration
Figure 16: Soup menu items, cuisine types, and ingredients, by menu incidence change from Q1 2015-17
MARKET FACTORS 
Migration away from center of store hurts certain soup segments
Interest in health
Figure 17: Crude percentages of selected circulatory diseases among adults aged 18 and over, by all types of heart disease and hypertension – United States, 2013-15
Simple ingredients, free-from claims influencing food shoppers
Figure 18: Lifestyle statements: attitudes/opinions about food – Any agree, by look for organic/natural and preference for food without artificial additives
Consumers interested in trying international foods
Figure 19: Lifestyle statements: attitudes/opinions about food – Any agree, by enjoy eating foreign foods
Consumer interest in cooking can help and hurt category
Figure 20: Lifestyle statements: attitudes/opinions about food – Any agree, by like to try new recipes
Soup with room to be positioned as a snack
Figure 21: Soup attitudes, March 2017
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Top companies driving soup category decline
Broth and dry soup likely benefiting from home cooking
Frozen soup sales continue to plummet
Despite small size, bone broth has potential to continue rapid growth
BRAND SALES OF SOUP
Top three soup manufacturers struggle, drive decline in category
Figure 22: MULO sales of soup, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Both Campbell’s and General Mills struggle in RTS wet soup segment
Figure 23: MULO sales of ready to serve wet soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Ramen falters, dry broth/stock flourishes
Figure 24: Online video – “Spicy Beef & Broccoli” – Better Than Bouillon
Figure 25: MULO sales of dry soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Sales of refrigerated soups heat up
Figure 26: MULO sales of refrigerated fresh soup/ frozen soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Campbell’s dominates wet broth/stock segment, yet smaller brands grow
Figure 27: TV Advertisement – “Get Inspired” – College Inn Broth
Figure 28: MULO sales of wet broth/stock, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Interest in cooking, making soup from scratch benefits broth and dry soup
Flavor innovation and convenient packaging drive refrigerated growth
Figure 29: Online video – “Recipe: Butternut Squash mac & Cheese” – Boulder Organic!
Success in multiple segments leads to private label soup growth
Figure 30: MULO sales of private label soup, total soup, and segments, by change from rolling 52 weeks 2016 to 2017
Figure 31: Purchase intent, by private label soup and national branded soup, April 2017
Focus on free-from claims, simple ingredients
Figure 32: Soup launches, by organic and free-from claims, 2014-16
Figure 33: Online video – “Blount Organic Broccoli Cheddar Soup” – Blount Fine Foods
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Campbell’s and Progresso struggle with healthy, premium soup lines
Frozen soup free fall driven by location in store, processed perception, and inconvenient packaging
Maruchan bagged ramen struggles
Lack of innovation
Figure 34: New soup launches, 2014-16
WHAT’S NEXT?
Portioning and resealable packaging
Figure 35: Soup launches, by packaging type, 2014-16
Bone broth is booming
Figure 36: New soup launches, by bone broth, 2014-16
Authentic Asian and Asian inspired soups
Figure 37: New soup launches, by Asian soups, 2014-16
Scratch fast
New directions
Figure 38: TV Advertisement – “New Well Yes! Soups” – Campbell’s Soup
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Soup purchase is universal
Soup regarded by consumers as generally nutritious, versatile
Good in, bad out
Desired innovation center on packaging
SOUP PURCHASE
Soup is a household staple
Figure 39: Soup purchase, any purchase, March 2017
Soup purchased infrequently
Figure 40: Soup purchase, purchase frequency, March 2017
Men eat a variety of soups
Figure 41: Soup purchase, any purchase, by gender, March 2017
Figure 42: Soup purchase, more than once a month, by gender, March 2017
Age and lifestage influence soup purchase
Older Millennials are new core canned soup consumers
Figure 43: Soup purchase, any purchase of wet, restaurant branded, or ready-to-eat soup, by age, March 2017
Younger consumers most likely to purchase broth and dry soup
Figure 44: Soup purchase, any purchase of any broth or any dry soup, by age, March 2017
Younger Millennials are core consumers of refrigerated and frozen soups
Figure 45: Soup purchase, any purchase of refrigerated, frozen, or chilled bottled soup, by age, March 2017
Parents beat non-parents in purchase across soup types
Figure 46: Soup purchase, any purchase, by parental status, March 2017
SOUP BEHAVIOR
Consumption of soup increases in the winter, when sick
Figure 47: Soup behavior, season, weather, and when sick, March 2017
Adding toppings to soup, preparing from scratch popular soup behaviors
Figure 48: Soup behavior, toppings and soup from scratch, March 2017
Looking for new soup flavors may influence increased soup purchase
Figure 49: Soup behavior, purchase and looking for new flavors, March 2017
Soup a popular at-home pairing
Figure 50: Soup behavior, toppings, and soup from scratch, March 2017
Women focus on soup occasion; men value convenience, new flavors
Figure 51: Soup behavior, by gender, March 2017
Behavioral differences between younger and older consumers
Older consumers more likely to eat soup in winter, prepared from scratch
Figure 52: Soup behavior, season, and prepare from scratch, by age, March 2017
Younger consumers purchasing more soup as they look for new flavors
Figure 53: Soup behavior, soup uses, when sick, looking for new flavors, and purchase, by age, March 2017
SOUP ATTRIBUTES
Taste and flavor most important soup attributes
Figure 54: Soup attributes, taste, flavor, and texture, March 2017
Low/no sodium leads soup health attributes
Figure 55: Soup attributes, health attributes, March 2017
Older consumers most likely to regard taste as important attribute
Figure 56: Soup attributes, taste and texture, by age, March 2017
Older females value free-from claims, younger men look for soup with added health benefits
Figure 57: Soup attributes, free-from claims, by gender and age, March 2017
Figure 58: Soup attributes, health claims, by gender and age, March 2017
SOUP ATTITUDES
Soup enjoys several positive reputations, but can’t seem to get over particular health concerns
Figure 59: Soup attitudes, March 2017
Older consumers agree soup is nutritious, younger consumers prefer premium and restaurant soups
Figure 60: Soup attitudes, by age, March 2017
Parents most likely to agree across soup attitudes
Figure 61: Soup attitudes, by parental status, March 2017
Parents interested in organic soup are most likely to pay more for premium soups
Figure 62: Soup attitudes about premium soups – CHAID analysis – tree output, March 2017
REFRIGERATED AND FROZEN SOUP ATTITUDES 
Refrigerated soups appear to have slight advantage in reputation for taste, health
Figure 63: Refrigerated and frozen soup attitudes, March 2017
Fathers have most favorable views on refrigerated soups
Figure 64: Refrigerated soup attitudes, by parental status and gender, March 2017
SOUP INNOVATION
Consumers desire convenient packaging
Figure 65: Soup innovation, packaging, March 2017
Nearly a quarter of consumers interested in international soups, functional benefits
Figure 66: Soup innovation, ingredients, March 2017
iGeneration/Millennials especially interested in packaging innovations
Figure 67: Soup innovation, packaging, by generation March 2017
Soup brands have potential to capture Hispanics with exciting innovation
Figure 68: Soup innovation, ingredients, by Hispanic origin, March 2017
CONSUMER SEGMENTATION
Figure 69: Soup clusters, March 2017
Souper Fans
Soup Sticklers
Apathetic Soup Shoppers
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – CHAID
Figure 70: Soup attitudes – CHAID – Table output, March 2017
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 72: Total US retail sales of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry soup, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of wet broth/stock, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of wet broth/stock, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 83: Total US retail sales of soup, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
Figure 84: Total US retail sales of soup, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 85: US supermarket sales of soup, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 86: US sales of soup through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 87: MULO sales of condensed wet soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017