Fruit - US - June 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Fruit sales surpass $50 billion
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2012-22
The issues
Sales of canned/jarred fruit fall year-over-year
Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at current prices, 2012-22
Consumers view canned fruit/fruit cups as too sugary and processed
Figure 3: Reasons for not buying canned/fruit cups, March 2017
The opportunities
Consumers want to fit more fruit in their diets
Figure 4: Fruit statement agreement, March 2017
Opportunity exists for new fruit products
Figure 5: Fruit product interest, March 2017
Different fruits satisfy unique occasions
Figure 6: Fruit usage by fruit type, by fruit type buyers, March 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Fresh fruit drives total market sales
Chefs are using fruits in new and interesting ways
Consumers want healthful snacks
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Fruit continues to experience consistent growth
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Fresh fruit commands more than 90% of the total fruit market
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of fruit by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Sales of frozen and dried fruit grow while canned/jarred continues to decline
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Other channel fruit sales growth is outpacing supermarkets
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Fruits are trending at restaurants
Figure 12: Incidence of the top 10 fruits used as an ingredient on menus, Q1 2015- Q1 2017
Figure 13: Ingredient Matrix, top 10 fruits (excluding avocados) used as an ingredient, Q1 2015- Q1 2017
Figure 14: Ingredient Matrix, top 11-20 fruits used as an ingredient, Q1 2015- Q1 2017
Fruits are most often used in salads/desserts
Figure 15: Change in the incidence of the top 10 dishes on menus that use fruit as an ingredient, Q1 2015-Q12017
Figure 16: Change in the incidence of the top 10 dishes on menus that use fruit as an ingredient (excluding avocados), Q1 2015-Q12017
Claims offer insight on how fruit is marketed at restaurants
Figure 17: Change in the incidence of the top 10 fruit claims used on menus, Q1 2015-Q12017
Preparation methods indicate innovation opportunities
Figure 18: Menu examples of grilled fruits
Figure 19: Menu examples of pickled fruits
MARKET FACTORS
Fresh fruit prices down slightly
Figure 20: Consumer Price Index, percent change in fruit prices
More than half of Americans are dieting
Figure 21: Share of respondents who diet, June 2016
Figure 22: Daily snacking frequency, 2015-17
Figure 23: Snacking behaviors, March 2017
Organics become more common
Figure 24: HH organic fruit consumption
The Arctic Apple and Pink Pineapple are litmus tests for GMOs
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Small brands thrive
Fruit chips and dates are trendy dried fruits
Dole and Del Monte innovate the fruit cup
Ugly fruit is an attractive opportunity
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF FRUIT
Smaller brands grow as main players see declines
Figure 25: MULO sales of fruit*, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
The crunch consumers want
Figure 26: MULO sales of dried fruit chips, 2012-16
It’s a date
Brands give their packaging a facelift
Figure 27: Fruit product launch type, new packaging, 2012-17
Figure 28: Food packaging statement agreement, March 2017
Fruit cups grow up
Figure 29: Fruit comparison: Dole Mixations and Del Monte Refreshers, Purchase intent score, April 2016-April 2017
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Decline of canned/jarred fruit continues
Figure 30: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 31: New fruit product introductions by packaging type, 2012-16
Figure 32: Grocery department associations, October 2016
Figure 33: Grocery department associations, October 2016
Raisins and cranberries lose share of dried fruit sales
Figure 34: MULO sales distribution of dried fruit by fruit type, 2012-16
WHAT’S NEXT?
Freeze-dried fruits could be the next fruit chips
Smoothie bowls offer new opportunities for frozen fruit
Making “ugly” fruit beautiful
Value-added produce appeals to time-crunched consumers
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Fruit is a staple product
Consumers have negative perceptions of canned fruit/fruit cups
Most fruit is eaten as a snack
Consumers want to eat more fruit
Consumers have varying perceptions of organic fruit
FRUIT PURCHASES
Fruit purchases are nearly universal
Figure 35: fruit purchases, March 2017
Types of fruit purchased varies by generation
Figure 36: Fruit purchases, by generation, March 2017
Women are fresh and dried fruit buyers; men are canned buyers
Figure 37: Fruit purchases, by gender, March 2017
Figure 38: Fruit purchases, by gender and age, March 2017
Frozen fruit is primarily purchased by young, affluent consumers
Figure 39: Fruit purchases, by HH income, March 2017
Figure 40: Fruit purchases, by HH income and age, March 2017
Parents are key fruit buyers
Figure 41: Fruit purchases, by age and parental status, March 2017
Figure 42: Fruit purchases, by age and parental status, March 2017
75% of consumers purchase up to four types of fruit
Figure 43: Repertoire analysis – fruit purchases, March 2017
CANNED/FRUIT CUP NON-PURCHASERS
Canned fruit and fruit cups face an uphill battle
Figure 44: Reasons for not buying canned/fruit cups, March 2017
Young consumers may prove hard to attract
Figure 45: Reasons for not buying canned/fruit cups, by age, March 2017
Figure 46: Reasons for not buying canned/fruit cups, by age and gender, March 2017
Dried fruit buyers have negative views of the canned/jarred segment
Figure 47: Reasons for not buying canned/fruit cups, by fruit type buyers, March 2017
Organic-buying consumers think canned/fruit cups are too processed
Figure 48: Reasons for not buying canned/fruit cups, by organic segmentation, March 2017
FRUIT USAGE BY ALL FRUITS
Fruit is most often consumed as a snack
Figure 49: Fruit usage, any fruit type, March 2017
Fruit usage varies by generation
Figure 50: Fruit usage, any fruit type, by generation, March 2017
Figure 51: Fruit usage, any fruit type, by age and HH income, March 2017
FRUIT USAGE BY FRUIT TYPE
Different fruits fulfil different occasions
Figure 52: Fruit usage by fruit type, by fruit type buyers, March 2017
Figure 53: Fruit usage by fruit type, by fruit type buyers, March 2017
Figure 54: Top five uses of each fruit type, among fruit type users, March 2017
FRUIT ATTITUDES
Over a quarter of consumers struggle to eat enough fruit
Figure 55: Fruit statement agreement, March 2017
Millennials are looking to eat more fruit
Figure 56: Fruit statement agreement, by generation, March 2017
Figure 57: Fruit statement agreement, by age and gender, March 2017
Parents look for fruit value
Figure 58: Fruit statement agreement, by parental status and age, March 2017
Misshapen fruit is ripe for canned and frozen products
Figure 59: Fruit statement agreement, by fruit type buyers, March 2017
Organic Enthusiasts are least likely to waste fruit
Figure 60: Fruit statement agreement, by organic segmentation, March 2017
FRUIT PRODUCT INTEREST
Interest in new fruit products is high
Figure 61: Fruit product interest, March 2017
Women are relatively disinterested in canned fruit innovations
Figure 62: Fruit product interest, any interest, by gender, March 2017
Figure 63: Interest in organic canned fruit, any interest, by age and gender, March 2017
Younger consumers are open to trying new fruits
Figure 64: Fruit product interest, any interest, by generation, March 2017
Figure 65: Fruit product interest, any interest, by Hispanic origin and generation, March 2017
Suburbanites and rural consumers are less open to trying new fruit products
Figure 66: Fruit product interest, any interest, by area, March 2017
Parents are more interested in new fruit products than non-parents
Figure 67: Fruit product interest, any interest, by parental status and age, March 2017
Interest in fruit segment products is high among segment buyers
Figure 68: Fruit product interest, any interest, by fruit type buyers, March 2017
ORGANIC ATTITUDES
Consumers believe in the environmental benefits of organic fruits
Figure 69: Organic fruit attitudes, March 2017
Figure 70: Organic segmentation index against all fruit buyers, March 2017
Dried/frozen fruit buyers are organic champions
Figure 71: Organic fruit attitudes, by fruit type buyers, March 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Mintel Menu Insights
APPENDIX – MARKET 
Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 77: MULO sales of canned/jarred fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 78: MULO sales of frozen fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 79: MULO sales of dried fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
APPENDIX – CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS
Methodology
Figure 80: Correspondence analysis – Fruit type usage
APPENDIX – CONSUMER 
Figure 81: Organic fruit attitudes, by generation, March 2017
Figure 82: Organic fruit attitudes, by area, March 2017