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Children's Social Care - UK - February 2017

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market size
Figure 1: UK market for children’s social care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
Figure 2: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
Figure 3: Number of children looked after, by country, 2016, (% of UK total)
Figure 4: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (% of total market)
Market trends
Figure 5: UK children’s home placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £000)
Figure 6: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2016, by region and type of provision, (% of homes)
Figure 7: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of Children and £000)
Figure 8: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2012/13-2016/17, (% of total provision)
Government leading drive to install new delivery model
Referrals to children’s social care fell for the second consecutive year in 2015/16, while completed initial assessments rose for a second time
Figure 9: Number of referrals and initial assessments from referrals to children’s social care, England, 2011/12-2015/16, (number)
London is home to the most social workers but also has the highest staff turnover
Market factors
Funding pressures are influencing the provision of services
Government begins market reform that aims to rejuvenate performance and outcomes
Companies
Forecast
Diminishing rate of growth expected to 2021 due to external economic factors
Figure 10: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
Special education spend expected to slow but still account for largest proportion of total market expenditure
Figure 11: UK market segmentation forecast for children’s social care, by type of care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
What we think
KEY INSIGHTS
How are financial pressures affecting the market?
Are fostering services managing to deal with demand for placements?
What is likely to drive future growth?
INTRODUCTION
Definitions
Methodology
Abbreviations
Market positioning
UK ECONOMY
Key points
Overview
Figure 12: UK GDP, 2006-16, (% quarterly growth and GDP in £ billion)
Figure 13: UK output, by industry, 2008-16, (Index 2013 = 100)
Figure 14: Quarters after GDP peak, 1979, 1990 and 2008, (number of quarters and GDP as % of pre-downturn peak)
Inflation
Interest rates
House prices
Figure 15: UK house price changes, 2006-16, (12-month % change)
Consumer spending
Manufacturing
Figure 16: UK manufacturing, 2014-16, (Index, 2013 = 100)
Business investment
Figure 17: UK GFCF 2005-16, (£ million)
Imports
Exports
MARKET FACTORS
Key points
Funding pressures are influencing the provision of services
Push and pull factors leading to a rise in the number of care proceedings initiated in court
Government begins market reform to rejuvenate performance and outcomes
Industry’s existing barriers to market entry still restricting development
Legislation
MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
Key points
Figure 18: UK market for children’s social care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
Figure 19: UK market for children’s social care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
Regional analysis
Figure 20: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
Figure 21: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
Figure 22: Number of children looked after, by country, 2012-16, (number of children)
Figure 23: number of children looked after, by country, 2016, (% of UK total)
Figure 24: Number of children looked after in England, by age and gender, as of 31 March, 2012-2016, (number of children)
Figure 25: Number of children looked after in Scotland, by age and gender, as of 31 July, 2012-16, (number of children)
Figure 26: Number of children looked after in wales, by age and gender, as of 31 March, 2012-16, (number of children)
Figure 27: Number of children looked after in the UK, by age and country, as of 31 March (rest of UK) and 31 July (Scotland), 2016, (% of children looked after)
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Key points
Introduction
Residential care
Foster care
Special education
Figure 28: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
Figure 29: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (% of total market)
Figure 30: Number of children looked after, at 31 March and 31 July, by placement type, UK, 2012-16, (number of children)
Independent vs public supply
Figure 31: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2012/13-2016/17, (% and £ million)
Figure 32: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2012/13-2016/17, (% of total provision)
Figure 33: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by sector and type of provider, 2012/13-2016/17, (% and £ million)
Figure 34: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by sector and type of provider, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (% of total sector value)
Children’s homes
Figure 35: UK children’s home placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £ 000)
Figure 36: UK children’s home placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £ 000)
Figure 37: Number of children in children’s homes in Scotland, 2012-16, (number of children)
Figure 38: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2016, by region, (number)
Figure 39: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2016, by region and type of provision, (% of homes)
Fostering services
Figure 40: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £ 000)
Figure 41: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £000)
Figure 42: Foster placements in England, at 31 March of each year, by placement type and location, 2012-16, (number of children)
Figure 43: UK fostering rates, 2016/17 and 2017/18, (£ per week)
Special education
Figure 44: UK market for SEN care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
Figure 45: UK market for SEN care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
Figure 46: Students with special educational needs, by school type, England, 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and % of pupils in each school type)
Figure 47: Students with special educational needs, by academy type, England, 2014-16, (number of children and % of pupils in each academy type)
MARKET TRENDS
Key points
Government leading drive to install new delivery model...
... though the shift towards independent trusts has been met with some resistance
Figure 48: Referrals and initial assessments to children’s social care, England, 2011/12-2015/16, (number and rate per 10,000 children under 18 years)
Figure 49: Number of referrals and initial assessments from referrals to children’s social care, England, 2011/12-2015/16, (number)
Figure 50: Referrals to children’s social care, England, by most common source of referral, 2015/16, (%)
Figure 51: Initial assessments to children’s social care, England, by most common primary need, 2015/16, (%)
Children in poorer communities more likely to enter care system
London is home to the most social workers, but also has the highest staff turnover
Figure 52: Children’s social care workers in England, 2016, (number of fte workers and % turnover rate)
Figure 53: Children’s social care workers in England, 2016, (number of FTE workers and % turnover rate)
Growth in fostering care demand remains unsustainable
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Key points
Industry Development
Ofsted inspections imply slight annual decline in number of homes
Number of secure units remains constant after slight decline over previous years
Figure 54: Number of secure children’s homes in the UK, by country, 2012-16, (number)
Independent provision of services on the rise
Figure 55: Proportion of all children’s homes in England run by state or independent organisations, by region, as of 30 September 2016, (%)
Industry structure
Figure 56: Analysis of the changes in the structure of other residential care activities, 2012-16, (number of outlets and businesses)
Figure 57: Analysis of changes in the structure of ‘other residential care activities’, 2012-16, (number of outlets and businesses)
Figure 58: Analysis of the changes in the structure of other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c., 2012-16, (number of outlets and businesses)
Structure by employment
Figure 59: Analysis of the employment structure of ‘other residential care activities’, 2015 and 2016, (number of employees and outlets)
Figure 60: Analysis of the employment structure of other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c., 2015 and 2016, (number of employees and outlets)
Structure by turnover
Figure 61: Analysis of the financial structure of other residential care activities, 2015 and 2016, (£000 and number of businesses)
Figure 62: Analysis of the financial structure of other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c., 2015 and 2016, (£000 and number of businesses)
COMPANY PROFILES
ACORN CARE AND EDUCATION
Figure 63: Financial analysis of acorn care and education, 2011-15, (£ 000)
Figure 64: Financial analysis of fostering solutions, 2011-15, (£ 000)
Company strategy
CAMBIAN CHILDCARE (FORMERLY ADVANCED CHILDCARE)
Figure 65: Financial analysis of Cambian Childcare Limited, 2011-15, (£ 000)
Company strategy
FOSTER CARE ASSOCIATES (FORMERLY CORE ASSETS)
Figure 66: Financial analysis of Foster Care Associates (formerly traded under Core Assets Group), 2011-15, (£ 000)
Company strategy
KEDLESTON EDUCATION
Figure 67: Financial analysis of Kedleston Education, 2012-15, (£ 000)
Company strategy
KEYS GROUP
Figure 68: Financial analysis of Keys Group, 2012-16, (£ 000)
Company strategy
THE NATIONAL AUTISTIC SOCIETY
Figure 69: Financial analysis of the National Autistic Society, 2012-16, (£ 000)
Company strategy
NATIONAL FOSTERING AGENCY
Figure 70: Financial analysis of the National Fostering Agency, 2012-16, (£ 000)
Company strategy
PRIORY GROUP
Figure 71: Financial analysis of the Priory Group, 2011-2015, (£ Million)
Figure 72: Financial analysis of the Priory Education Services, 2011-2015, (£ 000)
Group strategy
Figure 73: Profiled companies’ combined turnover, 2011-15, (£ million)
FORECAST
Key points
Market size
Diminishing rate of growth expected to 2021 due to external economic factors
Figure 74: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
Figure 75: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
Market segmentation
Special education spend expected to slow but still account for largest proportion of total market expenditure
Figure 76: UK market segmentation forecast for children’s social care, by type of care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
Figure 77: UK market segmentation forecast for children’s social care, by type of care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
Increasing adoption rates could improve market efficiency and better allocate finances
Improving the way that social care workers operate in the market can aid future development
Additional funds released to improve innovation in the market
FURTHER SOURCES AND CONTACTS
Trade associations
Association of Directors of Children’s Services Ltd (ADCS)
CoramBAAF Academy of Adoption and Fostering
Independent Children’s Homes Association (ICHA)
Nasen
Nationwide Association of Fostering Providers (NAFP)
National Children’s Bureau (NCB)
National Portage Association
Trade magazines
Child Care (Monthly)
Children & Young People Now (Fortnightly)
Social Work News (Quarterly)
Who Cares? (Quarterly)
Trade Exhibitions
ADCS Annual Conference 2017
Community Care Live Manchester 2017
National Children and Adult Services Conference 2017
Skills for Care Annual Conference 2017

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