Crackers - US - January 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Cracker sales slow in 2016
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of crackers, at current prices, 2011-21
Nearly all households purchase crackers
Figure 2: Cracker purchase, any purchase, November 2016
Interest in health claims without sacrificing taste and flavor
Figure 3: Cracker attributes, November 2016
Crackers enjoy a healthy reputation
Figure 4: Cracker attitudes, health, any agree, November 2016
Current packaging letting consumers down
Figure 5: Cracker attitudes, packaging, any agree, November 2016
The opportunities
Simple and recognizable ingredients
Figure 6: Cracker attitudes, ingredients, any agree, November 2016
Room for flavor, function innovation
Figure 7: Cracker innovation, flavors and functions, November 2016
Improved packaging that delivers freshness and on-the-go features
Figure 8: Cracker innovation, packaging, November 2016
Highlight recipe and meal uses with crackers
Figure 9: Cracker usage, meal and recipe, November 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Cracker category posts modest growth in 2016, up only 0.8%
Other crackers segment dominates the category
Popularity in snacking creates more opportunity, yet more competition
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Cracker sales grow 13% from 2011-16
Figure 10: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of crackers, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of crackers, at current prices, 2011-21
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Other crackers dominate category sales
Figure 12: Total us retail sales of crackers, by segment share, 2016
Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of crackers, by segment, at current prices, 2010-16
Supermarkets maintain lion’s share of cracker sales
Figure 14: Percentage of us retail sales of crackers, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Competition heats up from all sides
Figure 15: BFY snack attitudes – Agree, June 2016
MARKET FACTORS 
Interest in healthy eating
Figure 16: Attitudes toward food, by diet status, June 2016
Core consumers hitting life milestones
Figure 17: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2016
Shrinking household size shows signs of rebound
Figure 18: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
Growing Hispanic, Asian populations
Figure 19: US population, by race, 2012-22
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Top four cracker manufacturers dominate the category
Brands known and not take the health approach
Wholesome positioning, ingredients make a connection
Thin for the win
Alternative bases emerging
BRAND SALES OF CRACKERS
Mondelēz continues reign as king of crackers
Figure 20: MULO sales of crackers, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S WORKING?
Keeping it real
Real life connections
Figure 21: MULO sales of Nabisco all other crackers
Figure 22: TV Ad - Glasses – Ritz
Figure 23: TV Ad - Little Brother – Honey Maid
Figure 24: MULO sales of Nabisco graham crackers
Real reformulations
Figure 25: MULO sales of Snyders-Lance crackers with fillings
Truly real
Figure 26: Cracker product launches, by natural and minus claims, 2011-16*
Going organic
Thin is in
Figure 27: MULO sales of Good Thins brand
Limited edition & seasonal flavors
Figure 28: MULO sales of Triscuit brand
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Kellogg brands struggle to grow
Austin crackers
Figure 29: MULO sales of Austin brand
Special K
Figure 30: MULO sales of Special K brand
Saltine crackers dry and outdated
Figure 31: MULO sales of saltine crackers
Sales of private label crackers continue to decline
Figure 32: MULO sales of private label crackers
WHAT’S NEXT?
Innovative packaging
Keep it fresh
Alternative bases
Figure 33: 2016 cracker launches, by ingredients, 2011-16
Exotic flavors
Out of the center
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Nearly all consumers buy crackers
Clear and simple
Packaging improvements due
Bold flavors, combo-packs spark consumer interest
CRACKER PURCHASE
92% of consumers purchase crackers
Figure 34: Cracker purchase, any purchase, November 2016
Nearly half of consumers have established patterns
Figure 35: Cracker behavior, assortment of cracker types and annual cracker purchase, November 2016
Higher purchase among young adults
Figure 36: More than once a month cracker purchase, by age, November 2016
Figure 37: Cracker behavior, purchasing more crackers than last year, by age, November 2016
Figure 38: Repertoire of type of cracker purchase, by generation, November 2016
Parents most likely to purchase every type of cracker
Figure 39: Cracker purchase, any purchase, by parental status, November 2016
Figure 40: Cracker purchase, more than once a month, by number of children under 18 in household, November 2016
Hispanics purchase crackers most frequently
Figure 41: More than once a month cracker purchase, by Hispanic origin, November 2016
Figure 42: Cracker purchase, by Hispanic origin, November 2016
CRACKER ATTRIBUTES
Health takes a backseat to taste and flavor
Figure 43: Cracker attributes, November 2016
Whole grain, fiber, and real ingredients garner widespread appeal
Figure 44: Cracker types, by attributes, November 2016
Young adults place importance on brand, older seek specific health cues
Figure 45: Cracker attributes, by generation, November 2016
Parents more interested in brand and organic claim than non-parents
Figure 46: Cracker attributes, by parental status, November 2016
BEHAVIORS RELATED TO CRACKERS
Majority of consumers stick with their patterns
Figure 47: Cracker behavior, November 2016
Younger adults balance indulgent with healthy components
Figure 48: Cracker behavior, indulgent and healthy crackers/toppings, by generation, November 2016
Figure 49: Cracker behavior, by age, November 2016
Parents seeking new types, uses for crackers
Figure 50: Cracker behavior, by parental status, November 2016
ATTITUDES ABOUT CRACKERS
Product transparency, taste, and nutrition the perfect balance
Figure 51: Cracker attitudes, any agree, November 2016
Generation cracker attitudes
Millennials feel most cracker brands are still too processed
Figure 52: Cracker attitudes, cracker brands too processed, by generation, November 2016
High reports of stale crackers, Millennials most interested in on-the-go packaging
Figure 53: Cracker attitudes, packaging, by generation, November 2016
Taste is king for all, younger generations want added flavors and recipe ideas
Figure 54: Cracker attitudes, taste, flavor, and use, by generation, November 2016
Room to improve ingredients and packaging with parents
Figure 55: Cracker attitudes, by parental status, November 2016
Hispanics an opportunity for store brand crackers
Figure 56: Cracker attitudes, by Hispanic Origin, November 2016
CRACKER USAGE
Majority of consumers report eating crackers as a snack
Figure 57: Cracker usage, November 2016
Different cracker types lend themselves to particular eating occasions
Figure 58: Cracker types, by cracker usage, November 2016
Brand matters most for recipe use
Figure 59: Cracker usage, by cracker attributes, Brand, November 2016
Age and cracker use go hand in hand
Figure 60: Cracker usage, by age group, November 2016
Parents use crackers on-the-go, in recipes
Figure 61: Cracker usage, by parental status, November 2016
INNOVATION POTENTIAL
Consumers seek better packaging, bolder flavors, alternative bases
Figure 62: Cracker innovation, November 2016
Heavy and light users indicate different areas of interest
Figure 63: Cracker innovation, by purchase frequency, more than once a month, November 2016
Figure 64: Cracker innovation, by purchase frequency, less than once a month, November 2016
Cracker usage an indicator innovation
Figure 65: Cracker innovation, by cracker usage, on-the-go, November 2016
Figure 66: Cracker innovation, by cracker usage, as an ingredient in a recipe, November 2016
Offering varied innovation types will reach a majority of consumers
Figure 67: TURF analysis – Cracker innovation areas, November 2016
Differences in desire among age groups for innovation types
Figure 68: Packaging innovation, by age group, November 2016
Figure 69: Flavor innovation, by age group, November 2016
Figure 70: Benefit and claim innovation, by age group, November 2016
Parents want easy, indulgent snacks without compromising on health
Figure 71: Cracker innovation, by parental status, November 2016
Women focus on packaging and health, men on flavors
Figure 72: Cracker innovation, by sex, female preferred, November 2016
Figure 73: Cracker innovation, by sex, male preferred, November 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – TURF ANALYSIS
Methodology
Figure 74: Table - TURF analysis – Crackers innovation areas, November 2016
APPENDIX – MARKET 
Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of crackers, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of crackers, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 77: Total US retail sales of crackers, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of crackers with fillings, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of graham crackers, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of saltine crackers, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of other crackers, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 82: Total US retail sales of crackers, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 83: Total US retail sales of crackers, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Figure 84: US supermarket sales of crackers, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 85: US sales of crackers through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 86: MULO sales of crackers with fillings, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 87: MULO sales of graham crackers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 88: MULO sales of saltine crackers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 89: MULO sales of other crackers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016