Full Service Restaurant Trends - US - January 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Consumers are visiting FSRs less often
Figure 1: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, October 2016
Falling retail prices are hurting FSR sales
Figure 2: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, October 2016
Deals may not be the ideal solution
Figure 3: FSR visitation motivators, October 2016
The opportunities
The FSR market is still growing
Figure 4: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
Loyalty programs can drive FSR visitation
Figure 5: Ideal FSR loyalty program, October 2016
A casual fine dining experience strips the segment of its exclusivity
Figure 6: FSR statement agreement, October 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Despite challenges, the FSR market is growing
FSRs face competition from all sides
Falling retail prices are a major concern
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
FSRs experience steady revenue growth
Figure 7: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
MARKET BREAKDOWN
FSRs slowly lose market share
Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2016-21
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
QSRs double down on value/convenience
Figure 10: Reasons for visiting a QSR, February 2016
New fast casuals pose a major threat to FSRs
Grocerants redefine the dining and shopping experience
Meal kits: a passing trend or serious competitor?
MARKET FACTORS 
Gap between AH and AFH prices grows
Follow the money
Figure 11: Median household income, by age of householder, 2015
Figure 12: Median household net worth, by age of householder, 2013
Consumer sentiment is up; will consumers dine out more?
Figure 13: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007 – November 2016
Figure 14: Dining out predicted changes in behavior, September 2016
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Major midscales carry on while the rest of the segment falls behind
Casual dining searches for answers
Fine dining doesn’t take itself too seriously
MIDSCALE RESTAURANTS 
What’s working?
Midscales get an upgrade
Midscales get real
Figure 15: Midscale visitation motivators, June 2016
The big three midscales keep up with the competition
Figure 16: Restaurant visitation in the past 30 days, 2012-16
What’s struggling?
Midscales faltering
Figure 17: Restaurant visitation in the past 30 days, 2012-16
What’s next?
Seniors and kids
Figure 18: Midscale visitation motivators: senior menus, June 2016
Figure 19: Midscale visitation motivators: kids menus, June 2016
Midscales to watch
CASUAL DINING RESTAURANTS 
What’s working?
A side of entertainment
Latin cocktails spice up menus
What’s struggling?
Mainstream casual dining fights for its future
Figure 20: Restaurant visitation in the past 30 days, 2012-16
A race to the bottom?
What’s next?
Diner – server model shifts
Food halls provide a culinary tour
Delivery: casual dining salvation or Band-Aid?
Casual dining chains to watch
FINE DINING RESTAURANTS 
What’s working?
Keeping it casual
What’s struggling?
Seafood, salad, and soup falling out of fashion
What’s next?
Light my fire
Veggies galore
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Fewer consumers are visiting FSRs
Have restaurants hit “peak Millennial”?
Consumers place quality over deals
Loyalty programs offers hope for struggling brands
Interest in a more casual fine dining experience is high
BEHAVIOR CHANGES – FSR VISITATION
Behavior changes are concerning for FSRs
Figure 21: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, October 2016
Female diners are dining out less
Figure 22: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, visiting more or less, by gender, October 2016
FSRs need to focus on non-Millennials
Figure 23: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, visiting more or less, by generation, October 2016
Only the affluent are dining out more
Figure 24: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, visiting more or less, by HH income, October 2016
Parents are dining out more often but are looking for deals
Figure 25: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, visiting more or less, by parents and number of children, October 2016
BEHAVIOR CHANGES AT FSRS
Consumers are looking for deals when they dine out
Figure 26: Behavior changes at FSRs, October 2016
Men are outspending women at FSRs
Figure 27: Behavior changes at FSRs, more and less, by gender, October 2016
Millennial experimentation may be hurting same-store traffic
Figure 28: Behavior changes at FSRs, more and less, by generation, October 2016
REASONS FOR VISITING FSRS LESS
Price, not experience deters FSR visitation
Figure 29: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, October 2016
Women are visiting all restaurants less often
Figure 30: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, by gender, October 2016
LSRs are attracting younger consumers
Figure 31: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, by age, October 2016
Middle and lower income consumers are dropping out of the market
Figure 32: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, by HH incomes, October 2016
FSR OCCASION PRICES
Price expectation varies by occasion
Figure 33: FSR price expectation, median price, October 2016
Demographic price expectation
Figure 34: FSR price expectation, median price, by gender and by generation, October 2016
Figure 35: FSR price expectation, median price, by Hispanic origin, HH income, and by parental status, October 2016
Figure 36: price expectation, median price, by census region and by area, October 2016
FSR CHAIN VISITORS – DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES 
Methodology
Applebee’s
Figure 37: General demographic statistics, Applebee’s Customers
Figure 38: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Applebee’s Customers
Buffalo Wild Wings
Figure 39: General demographic statistics, Buffalo Wild Wings Customers
Figure 40: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Buffalo Wild Wings Customers
Cheesecake Factory
Figure 41: General demographic statistics, Cheesecake Factory Customers
Figure 42: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Cheesecake Factory Customers
Chili’s
Figure 43: General demographic statistics, Chili’s customers
Figure 44: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Chili’s customers
Cracker Barrel
Figure 45: General demographic statistics, Cracker Barrel customers
Figure 46: Demographic Breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Cracker Barrel customers
Denny’s
Figure 47: General demographic statistics, Denny’s customers
Figure 48: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Denny’s customers
IHOP
Figure 49: General demographic statistics, IHOP customers
Figure 50: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, IHOP customers
Olive Garden
Figure 51: General demographic statistics, Olive Garden customers
Figure 52: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Olive Garden customers
Outback Steakhouse
Figure 53: General demographic statistics, Outback Steakhouse customers
Figure 54: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Outback Steakhouse customers
P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
Figure 55: General demographic statistics, P.F. Chang’s China Bistro customers
Figure 56: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, P.F. Chang’s China Bistro customers
Red Lobster
Figure 57: General demographic statistics, Red Lobster customers
Figure 58: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Red Lobster customers
Red Robin
Figure 59: General demographic statistics, Red Robin customers
Figure 60: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Red Robin customers
T.G.I. Friday’s
Figure 61: General demographic statistics, T.G.I. Friday’s Customers
Figure 62: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, T.G.I. Friday’s Customers
FSR VISITATION MOTIVATORS 
Food comes first
Figure 63: FSR visitation motivators, October 2016
Location/dishes motivate female diners
Figure 64: FSR visitation motivators, by gender, October 2016
Figure 65: FSR visitation motivators, by gender and age, October 2016
iGens consider service, Boomers want variety
Figure 66: FSR visitation motivators, by generation, October 2016
Urbanites care about tertiary factors
Figure 67: FSR visitation motivators, by area, October 2016
Consumers that dine out “less” consider food quality
Figure 68: FSR visitation motivators, by FSR changes in behavior, October 2016
IDEAL FSR LOYALTY PROGRAM
Consumers prefer a spend-based loyalty program
Figure 69: Ideal FSR loyalty program, October 2016
Figure 70: Ideal FSR loyalty program, among those who would be interested in joining a FSR loyalty program, October 2016
Ideal loyalty program by demographics
Figure 71: Ideal FSR loyalty program, by gender, generation, October 2016
Figure 72: Ideal FSR loyalty program, by Hispanic origin, HH income, parental status, October 2016
Figure 73: Ideal FSR loyalty program, by region, area, October 2016
Figure 74: Ideal FSR loyalty program, by FSR changes in behavior, October 2016
IDEAL FSR LOYALTY PROGRAM REWARDS
Show them the money
Figure 75: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, October 2016
Hispanics express interest in delivery rewards
Figure 76: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, by Hispanic origin, October 2016
Urbanites drive interest in unique rewards
Figure 77: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, by area, October 2016
55+ consumers want special occasion rewards
Figure 78: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, by age, October 2016
Consumers visiting FSRs less want monetary rewards
Figure 79: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, by FSR changes in behavior, October 2016
FSR ATTITUDES
Fine dining for the masses
Figure 80: FSR statement agreement, October 2016
Making meals a “special occasion” for female consumers
Figure 81: FSR statement agreement, by gender, October 2016
Affluent retirees may be an untapped market
Figure 82: FSR statement agreement, by age, October 2016
Figure 83: FSR statement agreement, by age + income and employment status, October 2016
Who are the deal chasers?
Figure 84: FSR statement agreement, “visiting a FSR is only worth it if I can get a deal,” index against all respondents, October 2016
CHAID ANALYSIS
Methodology
Opportunity for better sports bars
Figure 85: FSR statement agreement, October 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – MARKET 
Figure 86: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – CONSUMER 
Figure 87: Household income distribution, 2015
APPENDIX – LOYAL REWARD CROSS-INTEREST 
Figure 88: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, cross interest, October 2016