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Sugar and Sweeteners - US - December 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Sales of sugar and sweeteners decline by 5% from 2011-16
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and sweeteners, at current prices, 2011-21
Dollar sales of sugar decline 16% from 2011-16
Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
84% of consumers are limiting the amount of sugar in their diet
Figure 3: Sweetener behavior, September 2016
The opportunities
A quarter of consumers desire natural sugar substitutes
Figure 4: Sweetener statements – Natural sweeteners, September 2016
Honey leads perception of health
Figure 5: Sweetener health, top rank and any rank, September 2016
Added sugar does not appear to be a big concern among consumers
Figure 6: Sweetener statements – Added sugar, September 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Sales of sugar and sweeteners decline by 5% from 2011-16
Dollar sales of sugar decline 16% from 2011-16
More than half of Americans are dieting
Sweetener knowledge appears limited
Government guidelines crack down on added sugar
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Sales of sugar and sweeteners decline by 5% from 2011-16
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and sweeteners, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and sweeteners, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and sweeteners, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Largest segments see sales declines, honey continues strong growth
Dollar sales of sugar fall 16% from 2011-16
Dollar sales of syrup and molasses decline by 2% from 2011-16
MULO sales of sugar substitutes decline by 13% during the period
Honey climbs 57% across the period
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
MARKET FACTORS
Obesity continues to be a big issue
Figure 11: Percentage of overweight and obese Americans, 2000-14
The diabetes rate is finally falling, but still remains high
More than half of Americans are dieting
Figure 12: Share of respondents who diet, June 2016
Dieters move from “diet” products to “better-for-you” products
Figure 13: Ingredient avoidance in BFY Foods, by diet status, June 2016
Sweetener knowledge appears limited
Figure 14: Sweetener statements, September 2016
Government guidelines crack down on added sugar
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Private label makes up the largest share of MULO sales in the category
ASR Group leads sales and growth of branded offerings
Honey brands continue to grow
Splenda sales decline by 10% in the 52-weeks ending Sept. 4, 2016
LEADING COMPANY SALES OF SUGAR AND SWEETENERS
Private label makes up the largest share of MULO sales in the category
Brand sales of sugar and sweeteners
Figure 15: MULO sales of sugar and sweeteners, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending Sept. 4, 2016
ASR Group leads sales and growth of branded offerings
Figure 16: “Domino Sugar Maple Flavored Granules,” online video, October 2016
Figure 17: MULO sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S WORKING?
ASR Group bucks sugar declines through innovation
Figure 18: MULO sales of sugar, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Honey brands blossom
Figure 19: MULO sales of honey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Use of regular syrups grows
Figure 20: Type of syrup used, 2012-16
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Leading company sales of syrup/molasses decline
Figure 21: MULO sales of syrup and molasses, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Splenda sales decline by 10%
Figure 22: MULO sales of sugar substitutes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Agave sales nosedive at natural channels
Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of sugar substitutes, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
WHAT’S NEXT?
Differentiation and specialization play strong roles in category innovation
Expanding flavor options
Appealing to foodies through a focus on expanded varieties and international origins
Complementary food trends
Blending sweetener types can help
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Half of consumers say a healthy diet should be low in sugar
84% of consumers are limiting the amount of sugar in their diet
Weight control is the leading reason for sugar reduction
Honey leads perception of health
Four in 10 consumers think artificial sweeteners should be avoided
Trust in packaged food manufacturers is low
SWEETENER USAGE
Seven in 10 consumers use white granulated sugar
Figure 24: Sweetener use – Net* any use, September 2016
Sugar and sugar substitute usage has declined in the past five years
Figure 25: Mean pounds of sugar used in the past 30 days, 2012-16
Figure 26: Use of sugar substitutes in the HH, 2012-16
Men make up a higher percentage of less-traditional sweetener users
Figure 27: Share of sweetener use – Net* any use, by gender, September 2016
Millennials make up the vast majority of sweetener usage
Figure 28: Share of sweetener use – Net* any use, by generation, September 2016
USAGE OCCASION
Sugar/honey lead for use in hot drinks
Figure 29: Usage occasion, by type, September 2016
Figure 30: Coffee and tea consumption – At home, October 2016
Liquid and easy-dissolve granules could resonate with cold beverage drinkers
Maple syrup leads as a topping
Sugar benefits from use in recipes
ROLE OF SUGAR
Half of consumers say a healthy diet should be low in sugar
Figure 31: Sweetener statements – Role of sugar, September 2016
Young adults don’t necessarily think limiting sugar is a pillar of a healthy diet
Figure 32: Sweetener statements – Role of sugar, by generation, September 2016
SWEETENER BEHAVIOR
84% of consumers are limiting the amount of sugar in their diet
Use of natural sugar substitutes in food/drink may do well to educate consumers about sweetener options
Figure 33: Sweetener behavior, September 2016
REASONS FOR LIMITING SUGAR
Weight control is the leading reason for sugar reduction
Figure 34: Reasons for limiting sugar consumption, September 2016
Women are more likely than men to limit sugar for weight management
Figure 35: Select reasons for limiting sugar consumption, by gender, September 2016
iGens are particularly health conscious
Figure 36: Select reasons for limiting sugar consumption, by generation, September 2016
HEALTH OF SWEETENERS
Honey leads perception of health
Figure 37: Sweetener health, top rank and any rank, September 2016
A third of consumers think artificial sweeteners are bad for health
Figure 38: Sweetener statements – Bad for health, September 2016
Women are more likely than men to think agave is healthy
Figure 39: Sweetener health, any rank, by gender, September 2016
iGens are most critical of white granulated sugar
Figure 40: Sweetener health, any rank, by generation, September 2016
Figure 41: Sweetener statements – Bad for health, by generation, September 2016
Asian shoppers are less likely to think artificial sweeteners are healthy
Figure 42: Sweetener health, any rank, by race, September 2016
Figure 43: Sweetener statements – Bad for health, by race, September 2016
SWEETENERS IN PACKAGED FOOD/DRINK
Trust in packaged food manufacturers is low
Figure 44: Sweetener statements – Packaged food, September 2016
Millennials appear more trusting
Figure 45: Sweetener statements – Packaged food, by generation, September 2016
Artificial sweeteners
Four in 10 consumers think artificial sweeteners should be avoided
Figure 46: Sweetener statements – Artificial sweeteners, September 2016
Half of iGens believe it’s best to avoid artificial sweeteners
Figure 47: Sweetener statements – Artificial sweeteners, by generation, September 2016
Half of Asian shoppers believe it’s best to avoid artificial sweeteners
Figure 48: Sweetener statements – Artificial sweeteners, by race, September 2016
Natural sweeteners
A quarter of consumers desire natural sugar substitutes, but don’t want to pay more for these
Figure 49: Sweetener statements – Natural sweeteners, September 2016
Natural sweeteners are most likely to resonate with younger consumers
Figure 50: Sweetener statements – Natural sweeteners, by generation, September 2016
Added sugar
Added sugar does not appear to be a big concern among consumers
Figure 51: Sweetener statements – Added sugar, September 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of syrup and molasses, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of syrup and molasses, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar substitutes, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar substitutes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of honey, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of honey, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 60: US supermarket sales of sugar and sweeteners, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 61: Sales of sugar and sweeteners through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 62: Natural supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 63: Natural supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 64: Natural supermarket sales of granulated cane sugar, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 65: Natural supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 66: Organic share of natural supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 67: Natural supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by fair trade claim, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 68: Fair trade share of natural supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 69: Natural supermarket sales of sugar and sugar substitutes*, by non-GMO claim at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 70: Non-GMO-claim share of natural supermarket sales of sugar and sugar substitutes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 71: Natural supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by “natural” labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 72: “Natural” labeled/perceived share of natural supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 73: MULO sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 74: Natural supermarket sales of sugar substitutes, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014-Oct. 2, 2016
Figure 75: Honey launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 76: Sugar launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 77: Sugar substitute launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 78: Syrup launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 79: Honey launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 80: Sugar launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 81: Sugar substitute launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 82: Syrup launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 83: Honey launches, by package type, 2012-16*
Figure 84: Sugar launches, by package type, 2012-16*
Figure 85: Sugar substitute launches, by package type, 2012-16*
Figure 86: Syrup launches, by package type, 2012-16*
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER
Figure 87: Type of syrup used, 2012-16
Figure 88: Means pounds of sugar used in the past 30 days, 2012-16

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