UK Retail Briefing - November 2016

ANALYST COMMENT
 AMAZON’S EVOLUTION: FROM RETAILER TO PLATFORM
Retail – marketplace the strength
Logistics – supporting growth
Prime: building an offer that stacks up
Groceries – experiment or serious challenge?
Profits – where art thou?
The Future
RETAIL SALES – BACKGROUND AND OUTLOOK
Key points
Retail sales
Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2015/16
Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, Oct 2014- Oct 2016
John Lewis
Figure 3: John Lewis: Year-on-Year Growth, Oct 2015- Nov 2016
Inflation and wages
Figure 4: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, 2012-2016
Inflation
Figure 5: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2015-16
Looking forward
SECTOR FOCUS – DIY RETAILING 
Erratic record
Figure 6: Year on year growth in DIY retailers sales, 2015-2016
Rising inflation
Figure 7: DIY retailers, implied deflator, 2015-2016
Specialists in decline
Figure 8: DIY retailers’ sales relative to all spending on the main products carried by DIY superstores, 2005-2015
Ageing population
Move back into inner cities
Figure 9: Proportion of households renting their home, 2005-2015
Distortions
Figure 10: Number of Residential Property Transactions with a value of £40,000+ In The UK, Non-Seasonally Adjusted, Apr 2015 – Sept 2016
Major players
Wickes
B&Q / Screwfix
Homebase
HEADLINES FOR THE MONTH
Grocers
Other food and drink specialists
Clothing retailers
Multi-sector retailing
Department stores
DIY retailing
Home shopping
Economy
NEWS ANALYSIS – FOOD AND DRINK
 CONVENIENCE STORES
UK: Booker like-for-like sales flat on the year
UK: Costcutter refreshes proposition with 'Shopper First Programme'
UK: Lifestyle Express reveals new fascia
 GROCERS
UK: Aldi takes on the premium retailers with luxury hamper range
UK: Asda apologises for nationwide card glitch
UK: Birds Eye and Walkers request up to 12% price increases
UK: Booths slips into a pre-tax loss
UK: Iceland to reveal new store concept
UK: Lidl scales up expansion with £55m warehouse
UK: Morrisons like-for-like sales rise 1.6%
UK: Planet Organic introduces mobile wallet
UK: Sainsbury's
…finally rolls out contactless as Tesco trials Tap&Tag
…like-for-like sales dip 1%
…opens first mini-Habitat concession
…pension deficit swells to £1bn
UK: Supermarkets to benefit from fall in business rates
UK: Tesco
…and Unilever in price dispute
…and Unilever settle dispute
…chairman warns of price rises
…faces court battle over pay changes
…joins Waitrose in launching meal kit range
 OTHER FOOD AND DRINK SPECIALISTS
UK: Conviviality Retail sales rise 2.5%
UK: Hotel Chocolat sales rise 12%
UK: Majestic Wine launches new delivery options
NEWS ANALYSIS – NON-FOOD
 CLOTHING RETAILING
UK: Abercrombie & Fitch rebrands to become more inclusive
UK: All Saints sales rise amid global expansion
UK: American Apparel UK stores to close as it enters administration
UK: Banana Republic to close all UK stores
UK: Bhs
…owners reveal international expansion plans
…unveils new clothing range
…launches first two Christmas ranges
UK: Burberry
…reports strong UK sales
…retail revenues rise 2%
…takes over Harrods with ‘A Very British Fairy Tale’
UK: Concept store stocking Australian brands set for London launch
UK: Diesel opens its new London flagship
UK: Duke & Dexter opens first UK store
UK: Exhibit enters administration
UK: French Connection eyed by investors
UK: Kenzo collaboration results in overnight queues outside H&M
UK: Matalan revenues fall 6.2%
UK: Mothercare adds Boohoo maternity range
UK: New Look reports 8.8% decline in like-for-like sales
UK: Next Q3 sales fall 3.5%
UK: Primark full-year revenues rise 11%
UK: Retailers expected to raise prices by 5%
UK: SuperGroup reports strong first half
UK: Ted Baker
…delivers good performance across markets
…partners with Google on voice recognition campaign
UK: TK Maxx profits jump 11%
UK: Whistles reports full-year loss of £2.9m
 FOOTWEAR RETAILING
UK: Footasylum sales surge 41.6%
UK: Kurt Geiger turnover rises 10%
UK: Shoe Zone sales fall 4.1%
 MULTI-SECTOR RETAILING
UK: John Lewis
…picks JLab winners
…Retail Director moves to Moneysupermarket.com
UK: Marks & Spencer
…to scale back European operations
…to close a raft of stores in China
…announces store closures as clothing sales fall 5.3%
UK: Poundland trials Pep&Co offering
 DEPARTMENT STORES
UK: Debenhams UK sales rise 1.2%
UK: Fenwick to relaunch transactional presence online
UK: Harrods
…profits surge 16.9%
…refits men's underwear department
UK: John Lewis
…appoints new managing director
…opens in Leeds
…unveils Christmas advert
UK: Liberty managing director moves to the Hudson Bay Company
UK: Selfridges grows sales 5%
UK: Victoria Gate shopping centre opens in Leeds
 DIY RETAILING
Germany: Praktiker brand returns online
UK: Bunnings prepares for first UK store
UK: Travis Perkins retail sales grow 9.1%
UK: Wickes introduces one hour delivery slots
 CARPET RETAILING
UK: Carpetright sales fall 2.7%
 FURNITURE RETAILING
UK: Furniture Village grows sales as it invests for growth
 HOMEWARES RETAILING
UK: Oliver Bonas like-for-like sales rise 14%
 HOME SHOPPING
UK: Amazon
…announces twelve-day Black Friday Sale
…extends Prime to include local stores
UK: Asos full-year sales grow 26%
UK: Gear4Music growth in Europe accelerates
UK: Missguided launches referral rewards scheme
UK: N Brown profits fall in promotion-led market
UK: Shop Direct launches Whatsapp-style customer service platform
 HEALTH & BEAUTY RETAILING
UK: Walgreens Boots Alliance sales fall due to weak UK performance
 BOOK AND STATIONERY RETAILING
UK: Paperchase poised to open first US stores in 2017
UK: WH Smith operating profits rise 7%
 SPORTS AND LEISURE GOODS RETAILING
UK: Halfords revenues rise but profits fall
UK: Jaguar Land Rover store opens in Westfield Stratford
UK: Mountain Warehouse halts IPO plans after Brexit vote
UK: Rapha Cycling sales grow 25.6%
UK: Sports Direct issues third profit warning this year
 JEWELLERS
UK: Pandora’s revenues increase 16%
 TOYS AND GAMES RETAILING
UK: GAME sales and profits fall
UK: Hamleys sales fall following a change in reporting period
 SHOPPING LOCATIONS
UK: Brent Cross shopping centre to receive £1.4 billion investment
UK: Carnaby Street collaborates with V&A for Christmas
UK: Centre:mk hosts Live in Style event
UK: Intu sells Bromley shopping centre
 ECONOMY
UK: BRC
…cites need for consumer-first Brexit strategy
…warns of long term retail job losses
UK: Retail footfall drops 0.9% in September
UK: Retail price deflation continues into October
UK: Retail sales grow 2.4% in October
UK: Retail sales grow 2.9% in September
UK: Retail sales rise by highest level in September