Breakfast Cereals - UK - August 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Values and volumes continue to decline in 2015
Value growth predicted for the future
Figure 1: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by value, 2011-21
RTE cereals continue to struggle
Hot cereals’ growth grinds to a halt
Sugar remains on the agenda
Competition for the breakfast occasion
Companies and brands
Market leader Kellogg’s continues to see falling RTE cereal sales
Figure 2: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value, 2015/16*
Quaker continues to dominate hot cereals
Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value, 2015/16*
Cereal launches hit four-year high in 2015
Kellogg’s and Quaker Oats target wellness trend with positive nutrition
Protein trend gathers momentum, low/no/reduced sugar remains niche
Advertising spend plateaus as focus turns to positive nutrition
Weetabix enjoys the highest brand commitment
The consumer
RTE cereals are eaten by 83%
Figure 4: Usage of breakfast cereals, by type, June 2016
Breakfast continues to be the main occasion for eating cereals
High fibre is a key factor
Figure 5: Nutritional factors deemed important when buying breakfast cereals, June 2016
Strong associations between fibre and digestive health
Figure 6: Behaviours relating to breakfast cereals, June 2016
‘Positive nutrition’ resonates
Figure 7: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2016
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Low sugar continues to warrant focus – control appeals to users
The facts
The implications
‘Positive nutrition’ resonates with consumers – natural has an edge over fortified
The facts
The implications
Opportunities are ripe for high-protein cereals
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Values and volumes continue to decline in 2015
Value growth predicted for the future
RTE cereals continue to struggle
Inflation to prop up RTE value sales
Hot cereals’ growth grinds to a halt
Growth expected to return to hot cereals
Sugar remains on the agenda
Competition for the breakfast occasion
MARKET SIZE, FORECAST AND SEGMENTATION
Values and volumes continue to decline in 2015
Figure 8: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by value and volume, 2011-21
Value growth predicted for the future
Figure 9: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by value, 2011-21
Figure 10: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by volume, 2011-21
RTE cereals continue to struggle
Inflation to prop up value sales
Figure 11: UK retail sales of RTE cereals, by value and volume, 2011-21
Figure 12: UK retail sales of RTE cereals, by value, 2011-21
Figure 13: UK retail sales of RTE cereals, by volume, 2011-21
Hot cereals’ growth grinds to a halt
Growth expected to return
Figure 14: UK retail sales of hot cereals, by value and volume, 2011-21
Figure 15: UK retail sales of hot cereals, by value, 2011-21
Figure 16: UK retail sales of hot cereals, by volume, 2011-21
Forecast methodology
MARKET DRIVERS
Sugar remains on the agenda
Competition for the breakfast occasion
Ageing population should benefit porridge
Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-16 and 2016-21
Weakening Pound poses risk of rising prices
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Market leader Kellogg’s continues to see falling RTE cereal sales
Weetabix extends lead, Nestlé’s sales fall
Quaker continues to dominate hot cereals
Cereal launches hit four-year high in 2015
Kellogg’s and Quaker Oats target wellness trend with positive nutrition
Protein trend gathers momentum, L/N/R sugar remains niche
Advertising spend plateaus as focus turns to positive nutrition
Weetabix enjoys the highest brand commitment
MARKET SHARE
Market leader Kellogg’s continues to see falling RTE cereal sales
Chocolate cereals buck health trend
Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Growth extends Weetabix’s lead as biggest RTE brand
Nestlé’s sales fall, ABF sees mixed results
Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Quaker continues to dominate hot cereals
Kellogg’s sees porridge sales fall as Special K struggles
Own-label grows ahead of market
Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Figure 22: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Cereal launches hit four-year high in 2015
Figure 23: Share of NPD in the UK breakfast cereals market, by sub-category, 2012-16
Kellogg’s targets wellness trend with positive nutrition
Figure 24: Share of NPD in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
Quaker Oats launches Super Goodness range
Protein trend gathers momentum
L/N/R sugar claims grow but remain niche
Gluten-free continues to receive growing attention
Figure 25: Share of NPD in the UK breakfast cereals market, by selected health claims, 2012-16
Sown & Grown launch in disruptive packaging
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Advertising spend plateaus in 2015
Figure 26: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by category, 2012-16
Kellogg’s continues repositioning of Special K
Kellogg’s supports Ancient Legends launch with VR experience
Weetabix and Quaker focus on positive nutrition and wholesomeness
Weetabix shifts focus to nutritional benefits
Quaker ups spend to support granola launch
Figure 27: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by top 5 advertisers (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
Alpen and Quaker focus on the breakfast occasion
Customisation and creativity take centre stage
Nestlé opens Aisle of Wonder pop-up cereal store
Brands look to promote sports and activity
Kellogg’s goes for gold with Team GB Olympic sponsorship…
…while Weetabix launches Summer of Sport
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
What you need to know
Brand map
Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, June 2016
Key brand metrics
Figure 29: Key metrics for selected brands, June 2016
Brand attitudes: Weetabix and Kellogg’s Corn Flakes excel on trust, quality and reputation
Figure 30: Attitudes, by brand, June 2016
Brand personality – macro: Krave stands out as fun and vibrant
Figure 31: Brand personality – macro image, June 2016
Brand personality – micro: Weetabix and Kellogg’s Corn Flakes share a traditional, family image
Figure 32: Brand personality – micro image, June 2016
Brand analysis
Quaker Oat So Simple stands out as moving forward
Figure 33: User profile of Quaker Oat So Simple, June 2016
Weetabix is the most trusted and reputable brand
Figure 34: User profile of Weetabix, June 2016
Jordans enjoys a strong ethical image
Figure 35: User profile of Jordans, June 2016
Kellogg’s Corn Flakes has the strongest image as traditional and family
Figure 36: User profile of Kellogg’s Corn Flakes, June 2016
Healthy image remains Special K’s key strength
Figure 37: User profile of Special K, June 2016
Alpen challenges competitors on health and naturalness
Figure 38: User profile of Alpen, June 2016
Shreddies lacks momentum
Figure 39: User profile of Shreddies, June 2016
Krave has the fun factor, but loses out on healthiness
Figure 40: User profile of Krave, June 2016
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
RTE cereals are eaten by 83%
Two in five eat porridge oats
Breakfast continues to be the main occasion for eating cereals
High fibre is a key factor
Demand for low-sugar cereals
Young men value high protein most
Strong associations between fibre and digestive health
‘Positive nutrition’ resonates
Cereal and yogurt pots attract interest
Parents struggle to find healthy and tasty kids’ cereals
Taste trumps healthiness for many
BREAKFAST CEREAL USAGE
RTE cereals are eaten by 83%
Figure 41: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, June 2016
Two in five eat porridge oats
Plain cereals are most popular type
Figure 42: Usage of breakfast cereals, by type, June 2016
Families are core eaters of RTE cereals
Figure 43: Usage of RTE breakfast cereals, by type, by the presence of children, June 2016
Flavoured cereals are popular with 16-24-year-olds
Use of granola and muesli skewed towards higher earners
Figure 44: Usage of granola and muesli, by gross annual household income, June 2016
OCCASIONS FOR EATING BREAKFAST CEREALS
Breakfast continues to be the main occasion for eating cereals
Figure 45: Occasions for eating breakfast cereals, June 2016
Under-45s are main users beyond breakfast
NUTRITIONAL FACTORS DEEMED IMPORTANT WHEN BUYING BREAKFAST CEREALS
High fibre is a key factor
Figure 46: Nutritional factors deemed important when buying breakfast cereals, June 2016
Wholegrain is important to 47%
Demand for low-sugar cereals
Naturalness appeals to 56%
Young men value high protein most
BEHAVIOURS RELATING TO BREAKFAST CEREALS
Strong associations between fibre and digestive health
Figure 47: Behaviours relating to breakfast cereals, June 2016
Tailoring sugar contents appeals
Toppings are popular
ATTITUDES TOWARDS BREAKFAST CEREALS
‘Positive nutrition’ resonates
Figure 48: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2016
Cereal and yogurt pots attract interest
Parents struggle to find healthy and tasty kids’ cereals
Taste trumps healthiness for many
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast Methodology
Figure 49: Total UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Figure 50: Total UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Figure 51: UK retail value sales of RTE breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Figure 52: UK retail volume sales of RTE breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Figure 53: UK retail value sales of hot breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Figure 54: UK retail volume sales of RTE breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21