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Packaged Bread - US - July 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Growth expected to continue at slow pace
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2011-21
More consumers report purchasing less bread
Figure 2: Purchase behaviors, change in bread consumption, May 2016
Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten
Figure 3: Frequency of eating different types of bread, May 2016
The opportunities
Align bread with Millennials’ more purposeful snacking
Figure 4: Use occasions, by age, May 2016
Cater to the different health needs of different age groups
Figure 5: Purchase considerations, by age, May 2016
Refocus on the enjoyment of bread
Figure 6: Attitudes toward bread, by changes in bread purchase, May 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Only slow growth for large, mature category
Sales growth stagnates for fresh loaf bread as consumption declines
Among other types, tortillas lead growth
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Growth expected to continue at slow pace
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2011-21
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Sales growth stagnates for fresh loaf bread as consumption declines
Figure 9: Sales of packaged bread, by segment, 2016 (est)
Among other types, tortillas lead growth
Figure 10: Total US sales of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2011-16
MARKET FACTORS 
Core user groups growing
Figure 11: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Figure 12: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Obesity on the rise
Figure 13: Percentage of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2003-06 to 2011-14
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Top two competitors market extensive brand portfolios
Smaller competitors more focused on individual brands or segments
Gluten-free trend continues to drive growth for targeted brands
Organic brands gain traction, and attention from major competitor
Free-from and clean-label claims grow more prominent
New launches incorporate ancient grains
COMPANY SALES OF PACKAGED BREAD
Top two competitors market extensive brand portfolios
Smaller competitors more focused on individual brands or segments
Company sales of packaged bread
Figure 14: MULO sales of packaged bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S WORKING?
Gluten-free trend continues to drive growth for targeted brands
Organic brands gain traction and attention from major competitor
Cobblestone focuses on creative cooking and sandwich making
King’s Hawaiian rolls out on taste and indulgence
Wonder Bread rises again
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Frozen
Private label
Figure 15: Bread product launches by branded vs private label, 2011-16*
WHAT’S NEXT?
Free-from and clean-label claims grow more prominent
Figure 16: Bread product launches by top claims, 2011-16*
New launches incorporate ancient grains
Packaging extends shelf life
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten
Whole grain an increasingly common health priority
Sandwich the most common way to eat bread, other uses slip
More consumers report purchasing less bread
Refocus on the enjoyment of bread
BREAD CONSUMPTION FREQUENCY
Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten
Figure 17: Frequency of eating different types of bread, May 2016
Greater variety of bread types in larger households
Figure 18: Frequency of eating different types of bread, any weekly eaten, by household size, May 2016
Hispanic bread eaters enjoy variety
Figure 19: Frequency of eating different types of bread, any weekly eaten, by household size, May 2016
Young adults more likely to eat a variety of specialty breads
Figure 20: Consumption of nontraditional/ethnic breads, May 2016
BREAD PURCHASE CONSIDERATIONS
Whole grain an increasingly common health priority
Clean labels increasingly important
Figure 21: Purchase considerations, May 2016
Different health needs for different age groups
Figure 22: Purchase considerations, by age, May 2016
USE OCCASIONS
Sandwich the most common way to eat bread, other uses slip
Figure 23: Use occasions, May 2016
Opportunity to align bread with Millennials’ more purposeful snacking
Figure 24: Use occasions, by age, May 2016
New use ideas could boost consumption among bread lovers
Figure 25: Use occasions, purchase behavior groups, May 2016
PURCHASE BEHAVIORS
More consumers report purchasing less bread
Figure 26: Purchase behaviors, change in bread consumption, May 2016
Young adults more likely to report purchasing more bread
Figure 27: purchase behaviors, by age, May 2016
ATTITUDES TOWARD BREAD
Health – Whole grain and weight
Convert enjoyment of new bread to purchase
Keep it fresh
Figure 28: Attitudes toward bread, May 2016
Refocus on the enjoyment of bread
Figure 29: Attitudes toward bread, by changes in bread purchase, May 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – MARKET 
Figure 30: Total US sales and forecast of bread products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 31: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Figure 32: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 33: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 34: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 35: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated bread products, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 37: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery bread products, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 38: MULO dollar sales of packaged bread, by segment and subsegment, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 39: MULO volume sales of packaged bread, by segment and subsegment, in pounds, 2011-16
Figure 40: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 41: MULO sales of fresh loaf bread by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 42: MULO sales of rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 43: MULO sales of bagels/bialys/english muffins/pita bread by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 44: MULO sales of tortillas, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 45: MULO sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016

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