Frozen Snacks - US - April 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Moderate growth for frozen snacks
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2010-20
Health factors weigh heavily on frozen snacks
Figure 2: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, by generation, January 2016
Higher-income households wanting more organic options
Figure 3: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, by household income, January 2016
Frozen snacks possibly suffering a lack of identity among consumers
Figure 4: Frozen snack attributes, January 2016
The opportunities
Consumers believe snacks can be healthy and tasty
Figure 5: Salty snack opinions – Any agree, January 2016
Familiar brands, organic options offer potential for households with children
Figure 6: Frozen snack purchase factors, by presence of children in household, January 2016
Hispanic consumers seeking healthier, if indulgent, snacks
Figure 7: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Frozen snack sales begin to rise
Slow growth for both category segments
Snacking almost a meal unto itself
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Moderate growth forecast for frozen snacks
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Both handheld entrees and appetizers segments forecast to grow, though slowly
Figure 9: Sales of frozen snacks, by segment, 2010-20
Frozen appetizers/snack rolls to grow more than 2% annually
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen appetizers/snack rolls/pretzels, at current prices, 2010-20
Slow growth, but still a turnaround in handheld entrees fortunes
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen handheld entrees, at current prices, 2010-20
Frozen snacks faring well in other channels, less so in supermarkets
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Grab-and-go options resonate more with on-the-go consumers
Figure 13: Food sales at home and away from home, January 2012-December 2015
Foodservice encroaching on snacking occasions
Figure 14: LSR specialty snack shops – Any snacking, by gender, March 2015
MARKET FACTORS
Growing demographic groups looking to snack more
Figure 15: Population, by generation, in millions, 2011-21
Households with children snack more often
Figure 16: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Manufacturers seek to counter consumer perceptions of frozen snacks as artificial
Private label frozen snacks enter the public eye
Restaurant and other CPG brands continue to emerge in frozen snacks
MANUFACTURER SALES OF FROZEN SNACKS
Frozen brands capitalize on convenience and ease
Figure 17: Totino's Pizza Rolls TV Commercial "Sports" ad, 2015
Figure 18: Hot Pockets TV ad, “Hot Pockets House: Skydiving Chamber,” 2015
Figure 19: Farm Rich Snacks TV ad, “Real Life Good – Laundry,” 2014
Figure 20: Welch's Graham Slam! ads, “Unicycle Football and SkiJoring,” 2014
Manufacturer sales of frozen snacks
Figure 21: MULO sales of frozen snacks, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Microwaveable, real ingredient claims surge in frozen snack launches
Figure 22: Frozen snack introductions, by claim, 2010-15
Private label frozen snack sales rise 13% year-on-year
Figure 23: MULO sales of frozen appetizers/pretzels, by leading companies and brands, 52-weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015
Figure 24: Frozen snack introductions, private label versus branded, 2010-15
Figure 25: Private label frozen snack launches
Frozen snacks with free-from claims emerge
Figure 26: Frozen snack introductions by claim category, 2010-15
Figure 27: Frozen snack launches with free-from claims
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Stouffer’s handhelds struggle, as segment begins slight recovery
Figure 28: Advancepierre Foods’ Steak Eze
Nestlé focuses healthy efforts on struggling brands
Figure 29: Stouffer’s TV ad, “Made for You to Love,” 2016
WHAT’S NEXT?
Non-frozen brands making headway in frozen snacks
Figure 30: Frozen snacks from brands outside frozen
Culinary influences impacting launches
Figure 31: Culinary influenced frozen snacks
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Frozen snacks could benefit from fresh perceptions
Increased snacking occasions could boost frozen snacks
Frozen snack convenience resonating with Millennials
Functional benefits could resonate with households with children
Hispanics seek healthier snacks, but family demands take priority
Potential for leveraging frozen snacks' ease of preparation and consumption
Health factors top the deterrents to frozen snack purchase
PURCHASE OF FROZEN SNACKS
Consumers concerned about healthy aspects of frozen snacks
Figure 32: Frozen snack purchase, January 2016
Millennials seeking international flavors in frozen snack purchases
Figure 33: Frozen snack purchase, by generation, January 2016
Households with children notably more likely to turn to frozen snacks
Figure 34: Frozen snack purchase, by number of children in household, January 2016
Italian, Mexican snacks of most interest to Hispanic consumers
Figure 35: Frozen snack purchase, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
FROZEN SNACK EATING OCCASIONS
Half of consumers have replaced meals with frozen snacks
Figure 36: Frozen snack occasions, January 2016
A quarter of Millennials eating frozen snacks away from home
Figure 37: Frozen snack occasions, by generations, January 2016
Households with 2+ children almost twice as likely as childless households to have frozen snacks as a meal
Figure 38: Frozen snack occasions, by presence of children in household, January 2016
Half of those using frozen snacks for breakfast/lunch want more microwavable packaging options
Figure 39: Frozen snack occasions, by purchase factors, January 2016
Almost three quarters of Hispanics replaced a meal with frozen snacks in the past six months
Figure 40: Frozen snack occasions, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
ATTRIBUTES ASSOCIATED WITH FROZEN SNACKS
Apps and snack rolls most likely regarded as convenient, handhelds as filling
Figure 41: Frozen snack attributes, January 2016
Convenience of frozen snacks resonating most with younger generations
Figure 42: Frozen snack attributes, by generation, January 2016
"Kid friendly" describes most frozen snack options – even for childless households
Figure 43: Frozen snack attributes, by presence of children in household, January 2016
Hispanics most likely to describe frozen apps and snack rolls as "tasty"
Figure 44: Frozen snack attributes, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
FROZEN SNACK PURCHASE FACTORS
Price of frozen snacks resonating with nearly half of consumers
Figure 45: Frozen snack purchase factors, January 2016
Frozen snack price resonating most with youngest generation
Figure 46: Frozen snack purchase factors, by generation, January 2016
Brand resonating with more than a third of all races, except for Asians/Pacific Islanders
Figure 47: Frozen snack purchase factors, by race, January 2016
Low price motivating lower-income households; organic resonating more with higher incomes
Figure 48: Frozen snack purchase factors, by household income, January 2016
Familiar brands a key frozen snack factor for half of households with 3+ children
Figure 49: Frozen snack purchase factors, by presence of children in household, January 2016
Brand and resealable packaging most important factors for Hispanic frozen snack consumers
Figure 50: Frozen snack purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
OPINIONS OF SNACKS
Consumers believe snacks can be healthy and tasty
Figure 51: Salty snack opinions – Any agree, January 2016
Younger generations seeking healthier snack options
Figure 52: Doritos Jacked 3D ad, 2015
Figure 53: Salty snack opinions – Any agree, by generations, January 2016
Sizable portion of consumers cite health concerns about snacks
Figure 54: Salty snack opinions – Any agree, by race, January 2016
Hispanic consumers seeking healthier, if indulgent, snacks
Figure 55: Salty snack opinions – Any agree, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
OPINIONS OF FROZEN SNACKS
Brands can capitalize on frozen snacks’ ease of preparation and eating on-the-go
Figure 56: Frozen snack opinions – Any agree, January 2016
Youngest generations seeking frozen snacks to satiate between meals
Figure 57: Frozen snack opinions – Any agree, by generation, January 2016
The more children, the greater a household's interest in frozen snacks for on-the-go consumption
Figure 58: Frozen snack opinions – Any agree, by presence of children in household, January 2016
Those who use snacks as part of a meal less likely to say snacks keep them full between meals
Figure 59: Frozen snack opinions – Any agree, by occasions, January 2016
Customizability could offer potential for both frozen snack segments
Figure 60: Frozen snack opinions – Any agree, by purchases, January 2016
Hispanics express notable interest in frozen snacks with more international flavors
Figure 61: Frozen snack opinions – Any agree, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
DETERRENTS TO PURCHASING FROZEN SNACKS
Health issues top consumer concerns about frozen snacks
Figure 62: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, January 2016
Calorie, salt, fat content weigh heavily on older generations
Figure 63: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, by generation, January 2016
Asian, Other consumers more likely to prefer fresh foods to frozen snacks
Figure 64: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, by race, January 2016
Higher-income households worry about calories and fat, but also want more organic options
Figure 65: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, by household income, January 2016
A quarter of households with 2+ children want more organic frozen snacks
Figure 66: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, by presence of children in household, January 2016
Consumers eating frozen snacks at breakfast notably likely to indicate a preference for fresh foods
Figure 67: Deterrents, by occasions, January 2016
For both appetizer and handheld purchasers, calorie, fat, and salt issues top the list of deterrents
Figure 68: Deterrents, by purchases, January 2016
Almost a quarter of Hispanics would like more organic options, and also prefer homemade snacks to frozen options
Figure 69: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
TARGET GROUP SEGMENTATION
Figure 70: Target groups, January 2016
Group one: Super Snackers
Figure 71: Opinions – Any agree, by Super Snackers
Group two: Convenient Snackers
Figure 72: Opinions – Any agree, by Convenient Snackers, January 2016
Group three: Apathetic Snackers
Figure 73: Opinions – Any agree, by Apathetic Snackers
Group four: Healthy Snackers
Figure 74: Opinions – Any agree, by Healthy Snackers
Group five: Simple Snackers
Figure 75: Opinions – Any agree, by Simple Snackers
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 76: Total US sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 78: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen appetizers/snack rolls/pretzels, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen handheld entrees, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 81: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 82: US supermarket sales of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 83: US sales of frozen snacks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 84: MULO sales of frozen handheld entrees, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 85: MULO sales of frozen appetizers/pretzels, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015