International Food Trends - US - March 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Moderate growth projected, lack of familiarity an obstacle to wider use
Figure 1: MULO sales and fan chart forecast of international foods, at current prices, 2010-20
Restaurant sales represent a challenge for home preparation brands
Figure 2: International food consumption, November 2015
The opportunities
Focusing on Millennials
Figure 3: International food consumption, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
An opportunity to leverage authenticity
Figure 4: Changes in behavior regarding international foods- authenticity, November 2015
Anticipating demand for emerging ethnic cuisine
Figure 5: Interest in Emerging International cuisine, November 2015
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Moderate growth projected as consumer palates expand
Mexican/Hispanic foods dominate among segments
Restaurant sales and lack of awareness negatively impact the category
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Moderate growth projected
Figure 6: MULO sales and fan chart forecast of international foods, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 7: MULO sales and fan chart forecast of international foods, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Mexican/Hispanic foods comprise majority share
Figure 8: Total US sales of international foods, by segment, 2015
Figure 9: MULO sales of international foods, by segment, 2010-20
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Consumers more apt to eat many ethnic foods at restaurants
Figure 10: International food consumption, November 2015
Figure 11: Changes in behavior regarding international foods, November 2015
A third of consumers are unfamiliar with international foods
Figure 12: Reasons for not eating international foods – unfamiliarity, dislike taste, November 2015
MARKET FACTORS
Taste for international foods increases
Figure 13: Changes in behavior regarding international foods – buying/spending and preparing, November 2015
Millennials represent opportunity for brands
Figure 14: International food consumption, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
Figure 15: US population by generation, 2010-20
Hispanics report more likelihood than non-Hispanics to eat ethnic foods
Figure 16: International food consumption, by Hispanics vs. non-Hispanics, November 2015
Figure 17: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Multiple leading players
Fresh, on-the-go foods, branded and authenticity drive gains
Declining Mexican/Hispanic turn focus to authenticity
Looking ahead: Bold flavors, authenticity
MANUFACTURER SALES OF INTERNATIONAL FOODS
Highly fragmented manufacturing landscape
Manufacturer sales of international foods
Figure 18: MULO sales of international foods, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Advanced Fresh Concepts Corp. leverages freshness, convenience
Figure 19: MULO sales of Advanced Fresh Concepts Corp. Asian/Indian foods, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
P.F Chang positioned as authentic, from scratch
Figure 20: P.F. Chang’s ad, 2015
Figure 21: MULO sales of Con Agra Foods Inc. Asian/Indian foods, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Mission and Guerrero drive growth for Gruma
Figure 22: MULO sales of Gruma SA Mexican/Hispanic foods, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Tribe innovates with Swirl Hummus
Figure 23: Tribe Hummus ad, 2015
Figure 24: MULO sales of Tribe Mediterranean Foods Mediterranean/Middle Eastern foods, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Old El Paso looks to reverse sales decline with new products
Figure 25: Old El Paso Bold Taco Shells ad, 2015
Figure 26: MULO sales of General Mills Mexican/Hispanic foods, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
B&G’s Ortega declines; new street taco kits go for authenticity
Figure 27: MULO sales of B&G Foods Mexican/Hispanic foods, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Dropping sales, Nissin launches authentic, bold flavors
Figure 28: MULO sales of Nissin Foods Asian/Indian foods, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Kraft’s Athenos experiences steep declines
Figure 29: MULO sales of Athenos Mediterranean/Middle Eastern foods, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S NEXT?
Expanding consumer palates result in bolder, more exotic flavors
Bold flavors, sweet and spicy pairings
Sauces and spices
Leveraging authenticity
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
High consumption of international foods
Unfamiliarity is an obstacle, especially among younger Millennials
Nutrition, familiarity, freshness, authenticity cited as important attributes
Increased use in the last year, specifically of authentic foods
Significant interest in emerging ethnic foods
INTERNATIONAL FOOD CONSUMPTION
Household income factors significantly in consumption
Figure 30: International food consumption (any made at home), by household income, November 2015
Households with kids much more apt to eat international foods
Figure 31: International food consumption (any made at home), by presence of children, November 2015
REASONS FOR NOT EATING INTERNATIONAL FOODS
Unfamiliarity dissuades four in 10 young Millennials
Figure 32: Reasons for not eating international foods – unfamiliarity, dislike taste, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
Familiarity with international foods increases with education level
Figure 33: Reasons for not eating international foods – unfamiliarity, household doesn’t eat it, by education level, November 2015
WHERE PACKAGED INTERNATIONAL FOODS ARE PURCHASED
A majority buy at supermarkets
Figure 34: Where international foods are purchased, November 2015
Millennials very likely to buy at mass, club, and less traditional channels
Figure 35: Where international foods are purchased, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
Value and specialty channels appeal to Hispanics
Figure 36: Where international foods are purchased, by Hispanics vs. non-Hispanics, November 2015
IMPORTANT INTERNATIONAL FOOD CHARACTERISTICS
Nutrition, familiarity, freshness important for many users
Figure 37: Important international food characteristics – pre-packaged foods, November 2015
Nutrition and freshness are important to Millennials
Figure 38: Important international food characteristics (pre-packaged foods) – nutrition and freshness, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
Nutrition, familiarity, freshness important to many Hispanics
Figure 39: Important international food characteristics (pre-packaged foods) – nutrition, familiarity, freshness, by Hispanics vs. non-Hispanics, November 2015
Authenticity is key for many food kit users
Figure 40: Important international food characteristics – kits for home preparation, November 2015
Millennials willing to spend on the experience of ethnic foods
Figure 41: Important international food characteristics (kits for home preparation) – affordability, preparation demonstrations, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
CHANGES IN BEHAVIOR REGARDING INTERNATIONAL FOODS
Increased home preparation, focus on authenticity
Figure 42: Changes in behavior regarding international foods- increased usage, use of authentic products, researching ethnic foods online, November 2015
Millennial consumption increases compared to a year ago
Figure 43: Changes in behavior regarding international foods – home preparation, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
Hispanic home preparation increases
Figure 44: Changes in behavior regarding international foods – pester power, home preparation, by Hispanics vs. non-Hispanics, November 2015
Authenticity more important to Millennials than non-Millennials
Figure 45: Changes in behavior regarding international foods – authenticity, spiciness, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
Millennials maintain/increase penetration
Figure 46: Changes in behavior regarding international foods – number of items bought, amount spent, variety, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
INTEREST IN EMERGING INTERNATIONAL CUISINES
Significant interest in less typical ethnic foods
Figure 47: Interest in Emerging International cuisine, November 2015
Hispanics still more likely to be interested in Latin American foods
Figure 48: Interest in Emerging International cuisine, by Hispanics vs. non-Hispanics, November 2015
Latin American foods appeal to Millennials specifically
Figure 49: Interest in Emerging International cuisine, by Millennials vs. non-Millennials, November 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of international foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of Mexican/Hispanic foods, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of Mexican/Hispanic foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of Asian/Indian foods, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of Asian/Indian foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of Mediterranean/Middle Eastern foods, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of Mediterranean/Middle Eastern foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Figure 57: Total US retail sales of international foods by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Retail channels
Figure 58: Total US retail sales of international foods, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 59: US supermarket sales of international foods, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 60: US sales of international foods through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 61: MULO sales of Mexican/Hispanic foods, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 62: MULO sales of Asian/Indian foods, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 63: MULO sales of Mediterranean/Middle Eastern foods, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015