Soup - Global Annual Review - 2016
Overview
 
●	Top soup markets struggle with slowing growth, while smaller countries in the Asia-Pacific region expand rapidly on small bases
●	Europe leads global soup NPD in 2015
●	Healthy convenience is the key driver of uptake in the soup category

Retail market volume in the top 20 global soup markets reached an estimated 5.24 million tonnes in 2015, increasing 0.7% from 5.20 million tonnes in 2014, primarily reflecting growth in markets that skew towards lower-value dry soups, such as China, Poland and Japan. The US remains the largest soup market in the world by volume, growing 1.3% in 2015 to reach an estimated 1.57 million tonnes. By volume, Poland is the next largest soup market globally, estimated at 0.56 million tonnes in 2015, with year-on-year volume growth of 2.4%.

FIGURE 1: Prepared soup, Global market volume performance
  
Source: Statistics Canada, Nielsen Canada, Information Resources, Inc., Office of The Economic Advisor, Ministry of Commerce & Industry – Government of India, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan, CBS, Statistics Korea, MAGRAMA, InfoScanCensusTM, IRI Espana, Alimarket, Economist Intelligence Unit, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Mintel

Retail market value for prepared soup in the world’s top 20 markets declined to an estimated US$11.2 billion in 2015 from US$12 billion in 2014. Two of the largest markets, the US and the UK, have experienced CAGR declines in value and volume over the last five years, while the Japanese market has proven to be surprisingly buoyant. Rounding out the top five, market value in France and Canada increased by an estimated 2.9% and 0.4%, respectively, in 2015. Over the past five years, France has experienced a flat value CAGR on slightly declining volume, while Canada’s CAGR was nominal in both value and volume from 2010-14.

FIGURE 2: Prepared soup, top 5 countries, market value (local currency and m US$) 2015*, CAGR value and volume 2010-14
 
  	Local Currency 		m US$ 	Value CAGR last 5 yrs 	Volume CAGR Last 5 yrs 	
Country 	Units 	2015 (f) 	2015 (f) 	% 	% 	
US	m USD	4,955.0	4,955	-0.4	-0.9	
Japan	bn JPY	179.4	1,470	2.8	3.3	
UK	m GBP	555.0	841	-0.5	-3.3	
France	m EUR	562.6	605	0.2	-0.9	
Canada	m CAD	702.6	553	1.0	1.2	

*forecast

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Information Resources, Inc., Fuji-Keizai Group, Nielsen Canada, Economist Intelligence Unit, Mintel

In the Asia-Pacific region, several rapidly growing markets to watch include China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. These countries have all enjoyed CAGR value growth above 7% from 2010-14, albeit on small bases of business. Increasing urbanization, rising incomes and the expansion of modern retail, especially the convenience store channel, is driving uptake of convenient and easy to prepare foods such as prepared soup.

Elsewhere in the developed world, time-pressed consumers have adopted snacking lifestyles, and are now looking for healthy, nutritionally dense snack products to meet their on-the-go needs. Prepared soup is well-regarded as a healthy option and well-positioned to take advantage of consumers’ changing lifestyle needs.

Globally, the European region accounted for the largest share (48%) of global prepared soup NPD in 2015, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 29% and North America at 14%. Overall, Japan was the leading country for soup introductions in 2015, followed by the UK, the US and France.

FIGURE 3: Top 10 countries for prepared soup introductions, Global, 2015
  
Source: Mintel GNPD

Globally, the dominant share of prepared soup NPD remained focused on shelf-stable products in 2015, which accounted for 73% of soup product launches, split about evenly between wet and dry soup formats. Meanwhile, chilled wet soup innovation remained steady in 2015, accounting for 21% of new products, followed by frozen wet soups, at 6% in the same period.

Chilled soup innovation is most prevalent in Europe, led by the UK at 39% of new product and Spain with 40% of new soups introduced in chilled formats. In North America, Canada leads chilled innovation, with chilled formats accounting for 37% of soup innovation in 2015, compared to just 17% in the US.

FIGURE 4: Prepared soup introductions, by storage, by region, global, 2015
 
  	Europe 	Asia Pacific 	North America 	Latin America 	Middle East & Africa 	
Storage 	% 	% 	% 	% 	% 	
Shelf stable	66	82	71	89	76	
Chilled	29	14	25	3	22	
Frozen	5	4	4	7	2	

Source: Mintel GNPD

Prepared soup uptake is driven by convenience, as evidenced by the preponderance of convenience-related claims in the category since 2013. In 2015, more than two-thirds (67%) of soup products launched globally carried a convenience-related claim such as microwaveable, easy to use or quick to prepare.

Naturalness is also playing a critical role in product innovation and consumer uptake as consumers look for healthy vegetable-rich products that are less processed. Half of new prepared soup products launched globally in 2015 carried a naturalness-related claim, led by no additives/preservatives and organic claims.

FIGURE 5: Prepared soup introductions, by storage, by region, global, 2015
 
  	2013 	2014 	2015 	
Claim Category 	% 	% 	% 	
Convenience (microwaveable, easy to use, time/speed)	61	66	67	
Natural (no additives, all-natural, organic)	45	47	50	
Suitable for (vegetarian, diabetic, halal, gluten-free, etc.)	25	26	31	
Ethical & environmental (animal, human, environment)	26	26	27	
Minus (low/no fat, low/no calorie, etc.)	21	19	19	
Positioning (premium, economy, seasonal)	16	19	18	
Functional (bone, cardio, brain, etc.)	5	4	5	
Plus (high protein, calcium, fibre, etc.)	3	4	4	
Demographic (kids, seniors, males, females)	2	2	2	

Source: Mintel GNPD

* Please note: the market size data referenced in this report is current as of January 31, 2016