Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies - US - November 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Category sales stay flat in 2015; 4% growth 2010-15
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
Juice drinks and 100% juice lose share to smoothies
Figure 2: Segment share of total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, 2010-20
Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines
The opportunities
A move away from shelf stable may boost juice drink/smoothie appeal
Figure 3: Share of segment sales, by storage, 2010-15
Clean label claims see strong growth
Figure 4: Smoothie launches, by top 10 leading claims, 2010-15*
Occasion-specific smoothie positioning may be in order
Figure 5: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Category sales stay flat in 2015; 4% growth 2010-15
Smoothie sales grow 120% 2010-15
Move away from shelf stable may be boosting juice drink/smoothie appeal
Juice/juice drink consumption on the decline
Retail smoothies compete with foodservice and homemade
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Category sales stay flat in 2015; grow 4% overall 2010-15
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Juice drinks and 100% juice lose share to smoothies
Figure 7: Segment share of total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, 2010-20
Smoothie sales grow 120% 2010-15
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
A move away from shelf stable may boost juice drink/smoothie appeal
Figure 9: Share of segment sales, by storage, 2010-15
Convenience stores and natural channels see strong category growth
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Juice/juice drink consumption on the decline
Figure 11: Household consumption of juice/juice drinks, by type, 2011-2015
A range of non-alcoholic beverage categories experienced year-over-year growth in consumption
Figure 12: Any consumption in the past three months, by drink type, June 2014 and June 2015
Nutritional drinks see strong growth
Figure 13: Statements related to smoothies -- Meal, September 2015
Retail smoothies compete with foodservice and homemade
Figure 14: Smoothie purchase location (nets*), September 2015
MARKET FACTORS
2015 dietary guidelines link lack of vitamins/minerals to a rise in chronic diseases in the US
A healthy diet is seen as better than supplements for vitamin intake
Figure 15: Select attitudes toward vitamins, minerals, and supplements – any agree*, June 2015
Overweight/obesity rates remain an issue
Figure 16: National percent of adults aged 18+ who are obese or overweight, 2011-13
Figure 17: National percent of students in grades 9-12 who are obese or overweight, 2001-13
Snack habits can help drive category growth
Figure 18: Daily snacking frequency, January 2015
Households with children are important to the category, but wider appeal should be sought
Figure 19: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Top three companies lose slight share, Coca-Cola stays on top
Clean label claims see growth
Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines
Vegetable/savory flavors may broaden consumption occasion
MANUFACTURER SALES OF JUICE, JUICE DRINKS AND SMOOTHIES
Top three companies lose slight share, Coca-Cola stays on top
Figure 20: Share of sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Clean label claims see strong growth
Figure 21: Smoothie launches, by top 10 leading claims, 2010-15*
Figure 22: MULO sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Pepsico makes up half of smoothie sales and growing
Figure 23: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Coconut water continues to perform well
Figure 24: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Stevia sees strong growth as juice drinks sweetener in natural channels
Figure 25: Share of natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Probiotic claims on the rise
Figure 26: Share of natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by prebiotic and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Vegetable flavors up in 100% juice
Figure 27: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines
Shelf-stable launches down
Figure 28: Share of 100% juice, juice drink and smoothie launches, by storage type, 2010-15*
Natural claims down in 100% juice
Figure 29: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
Traditional flavors lose share in natural channels
Figure 30: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
WHAT’S NEXT?
Occasion-specific smoothie positioning
Figure 31: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
Savory flavors may appeal for lunch/dinner
International flavors and formats
Alcohol positioning can boost adult feel
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
100% juice leads consumption
Breakfast rules consumption occasion; opportunity for snack positioning/breakfast smoothies
A quarter of smoothie drinkers are interested in chunky mix-ins
Category may represent convenient health for parents
CONSUMPTION OCCASION
100% juice leads as part of breakfast; opportunity for snack positioning
Figure 32: Select juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption occasions, September 2015
Millennials appear as a target across 100% juice occasions
Figure 33: Select 100% juice consumption occasions, by generation groups, September 2015
iGens look to juice drinks as snacks
Figure 34: Select juice drink consumption occasions, by generation groups, September 2015
Opportunity exists for stronger smoothie breakfast positioning
Figure 35: Select smoothie consumption occasions, by generation groups, September 2015
Hispanics view 100% juice as versatile
Figure 36: Select juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption occasions, by Hispanic, September 2015
SMOOTHIE FORMAT
Single-serving smoothies are most popular
Figure 37: Smoothie statements – Format, September 2015
Single-serving smoothies may appear as an affordable option
Figure 38: Smoothie statements – Format, by household income September 2015
Hispanics are more likely than average to drink shelf-stable smoothies
Figure 39: Smoothie statements – Format, by Hispanic origin, September 2015
Multi-serving smoothies popular for breakfast drinkers
Figure 40: Smoothie statements – Format, by consumption occasion, September 2015
OPINIONS TOWARD JUICE, JUICE DRINKS, AND SMOOTHIES
Juice drinks and shelf-stable smoothies suffer from poor health perceptions
Figure 41: Correspondence Analysis – Opinions toward juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
Figure 42: Opinions toward juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
Smoothies should aim at convenience positioning to target Millennials
Figure 43: Millennial opinions toward juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, September 2015
SMOOTHIE PURCHASE LOCATION
Mass leads retail purchase location
Figure 44: Smoothie purchase location, September 2015
Millennials less likely to make smoothies at home
Figure 45: Smoothie purchase location, by generation group, September 2015
Hispanics less likely to purchase smoothies at foodservice
Figure 46: Smoothie purchase location, by Hispanic origin, September 2015
Breakfast drinkers make smoothies at home; foodservice is for snacking
Figure 47: Smoothie purchase location, by consumption occasion, September 2015
IDEAL SMOOTHIE
Strawberries lead smoothie ingredients of interest
Figure 48: Ideal smoothie*, September 2015
More vegetables show up in Millennial smoothies, but so do indulgent mix-ins
Figure 49: Ideal smoothie* - Millennials, September 2015
Functional benefits, such as high protein, important among Hispanics
Figure 50: Ideal smoothie* - Hispanics, September 2015
Interest in function appears among consumers building healthy smoothies
Figure 51: Ideal smoothie* - Healthy smoothie, September 2015
Fruit of interest even among indulgent smoothie seekers
Figure 52: Ideal smoothie* - Indulgent smoothie, September 2015
Functionality desired for breakfast smoothies
Figure 53: Ideal smoothie* - breakfast smoothie, September 2015
SMOOTHIE INNOVATION OF INTEREST
A quarter of smoothie drinkers interested in chunky mix-ins
Figure 54: Statements related to smoothies – Innovation of interest, September 2015
International flavors may appeal to Millennial smoothie drinkers
Figure 55: Statements related to smoothies – Innovation of interest, by generation, September 2015
Chunky smoothies appeal for breakfast
Figure 56: Statements related to smoothies – Innovation of interest, by consumption occasion, September 2015
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUP: HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN
Parents significantly more likely than average to drink juice drinks and smoothies
Figure 57: Juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption, by households with children, September 2015
Category may represent convenient health for parents
Figure 58: Parent opinions toward juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, September 2015
Focus on convenience seen in parental smoothie purchase habits
Figure 59: Smoothie purchase location, by households with children, September 2015
Vitamin/mineral delivery may appeal to parents
Figure 60: Ideal smoothie* -- For giving to a child, September 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Correspondence map methodology
CHAID methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 69: Sales of 100% juice, by storage, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 70: Sales of 100% juice, by format, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 71: Sales of juice drinks, by storage, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 72: Sales of juice drinks, by format, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 73: Sales of smoothies, by storage, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 74: US supermarket sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 75: US convenience store sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 76: US sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 77: Household consumption of juice/juice drinks, by type, 2011-2015
Figure 78: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks September 2013-September 2015
Figure 79: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by form, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 80: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by brand positioning, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 81: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by packaging, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 82: Any consumption in the past three months, by drink type, June 2014 and June 2015
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 83: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 84: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 85: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by prebiotic and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 86: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 87: sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 88: Share of 100% juice, juice drink and smoothie launches, by storage type, 2010-15*
Figure 89: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
Figure 90: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
Figure 91: Share of juice drink launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
Figure 92: Share of juice drink launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
Figure 93: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
Figure 94: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*