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Fragrances - US - August 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Competitive landscape provides impetus for flat sales
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2010-20
Occasional-use status is barrier to category growth
Figure 2: Types of fragrance products used, by any and regular use, May 2015
Habitual tendencies influence fragrance purchases
Figure 3: Fine fragrance purchase influencers, any rank, May 2015
The opportunities
Focus on the male consumer
Figure 4: Attitudes toward fragrance selection, by gender, February 2015
Body spray provides inexpensive opportunity for customization
Figure 5: Reasons for wearing body spray, May 2015
Emphasize alternative formats
Figure 6: Any use of travel-sized and alternate perfume formats, by age, May 2015
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Flat performance in the competitive fragrance category
Men’s fragrance performs well, but women’s fragrance dominates
New product growth in unisex and men’s fragrances
Shifts in population trends impact market
Growth among multicultural population
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Historic and projected sales performance of fragrance
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Men’s fragrances gain, while women’s fragrance continues to struggle
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, 2010-15
Women’s fragrance maintains strong foothold on market performance
Men’s fragrance proving to be the market’s growth opportunity
Sales of fragrances occur beyond supermarket and drug channels
Figure 11: Total us retail sales of fragrances, by channel, 2013 and 2015
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Growth in unisex and men’s fragrances
Figure 12: Share of fragrance product launches, by subcategory, 2010-15*
Product claims help differentiate brands in a crowded marketplace
Figure 13: Top 10 fragrance product claims, by share, 2010-15*
MARKET FACTORS
Growing population should benefit market
Figure 14: US population, by age, 2010, 2015, and 2020
Figure 15: Any use of fragrance products, by age, May 2015
Men’s fragrance is key to future growth
Evolving multicultural demographics influence innovation and marketing
Figure 16: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010, 2015, and 2020
Figure 17: Fragrance expenditures, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2014-March 2015
Figure 18: Any use of fragrance products, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2015
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Leading players by usage penetration
Customization and alternative fragrance formats gain traction
Scented toiletries create competition
Transparency and technology are on deck
BRAND USAGE OF FRAGRANCE
Highly fragmented supply chain is a hallmark of competitive market
Brands of aftershave and cologne used
Figure 19: Brands of aftershave and cologne used, February 2009-March 2015
Brands of perfume, cologne and toilet water used
Figure 20: Brands of perfume, cologne, and toilet water used, February 2009-March 2015
Figure 21: Top 10 fragrance companies in new product launch activity, by share, 2010-15*
WHAT’S WORKING?
Customization of fragrance going mainstream
Alternative formats provide opportunity
Figure 22: Any use of alternative fragrance formats, by select demographics, May 2015
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Competition from scented toiletries erodes fine fragrance sales
Figure 23: Any use of scented toiletries, by age, May 2015
Celebrity endorsements
WHAT’S NEXT?
Transparency and the promise of pure fragrance
Technology can create interest and help shoppers navigate category
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Occasional use of fragrance a barrier to category growth
Department stores attract the male fragrance user
Habitual tendencies influence fragrance purchases
Body sprays perceived as lighter, portable and less expensive
Customization is in demand for fragrances
Fragrance scent reveals gender preferences
FRAGRANCE USAGE
Regular use of fragrance associated with aftershave and scented toiletries
Figure 24: Types of fragrance products use, by any and regular use, May 2015
In their words
RETAILER CHOICE
Department stores and mass merchants top choice for fragrance purchase
Figure 25: Retailer choice for fragrance purchase, by gender, May 2015
In their words
PURCHASE INFLUENCERS
Product sampling is top purchase influencer
Figure 26: Fine fragrance purchase influencers, by gender and age group, May 2015
In their words
REASONS FOR USING BODY SPRAY
Competitive context
Reasons for wearing body spray
Figure 27: Reasons for wearing body spray, May 2015
In their words
ATTITUDES TOWARD FRAGRANCE
Fragrance selection
Figure 28: Attitudes toward fragrance selection, by gender, May 2015
Fragrance scent
Figure 29: Attitudes toward fragrance scents, by gender, May 2015
Fragrance ingredients
Figure 30: Attitudes toward fragrance ingredients, by age, May 2015
FRAGRANCE PREFERENCE
Floral scents remain most popular
Figure 31: Any fragrance preference, by gender, May 2015
Fragrance users have distinct scent expectation by product type
Figure 32: Correspondence Analysis – Fragrance profiles, May 2015
Figure 33: Fragrance preference, by product, May 2015
In their words
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 34: Total US sales and forecast of fragrances, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 35: Total US retail sales of frangrances, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 36: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Correspondence analysis methodology

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