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Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - July 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Sales of frozen treats sluggish
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
Health plays a role in purchase, but consumers still want a treat
Figure 2: Statements related to frozen treats (health), March 2015
The opportunities
A focus on quality may help boost health perception
Specialty offerings and smaller brands find appeal
Figure 3: Frozen treat (ice cream, gelato, frozen custard) purchase at a supermarket, convenience store or other store, by generation, April 2015
Non-dairy meets interests as well as needs
Figure 4: Reasons for choosing non-dairy, April 2015
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Sales of frozen treats projected to reach $12.3 billion in 2015
Ice cream leads category sales, gelato helps to drive growth
Health plays a role in purchase, but consumers still want a treat
Foodservice competes for more specialty offerings, attracts young adults
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties to reach $12.3 billion in 2015
Figure 5: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Ice cream leads category sales, gelato helps to drive growth
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 7: MULO sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2010-2015
Frozen yogurt is on a downward trend
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and volume sales of frozen yogurt/dairy alternatives, at current prices, 2010-15
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Health plays a role in purchase, but consumers still want a treat
Figure 9: Statements related to frozen treats (health), March 2015
Foodservice competes for specialty offerings, young adult appeal
Figure 10: Frozen treat purchase, by purchase location, April 2015
Figure 11: Frozen treat purchase, by generation, April 2015
Listeria scare impacts brand availability, but should spare the market
Figure 12: Statements related to frozen treats (safety), March 2015
MARKET FACTORS
Ice cream is popular for dessert, but in moderation
Figure 13: Dessert consumption, April 2015
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Seven leading companies make up 63% of MULO sales in the category
Gelato continues to see strong growth
Frozen yogurt falling out of favor
Smaller brands see growth across most segments
MANUFACTURER SALES OF ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES
Unilever pushes past Nestlé with Talenti acquisition
Blue Bell recall opens the door for other companies to grow
Figure 14: MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies ($ million), rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Gelato continues to see strong growth
Non-dairy is a bright spot in frozen yogurt/dairy alternatives segment
Smaller brands see growth across most segments
Ben & Jerry’s continues to go big
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Frozen yogurt may be falling out of favor
Consumers aren’t drawn to diet brands
Fruit-based treats struggle to meet sweet cravings
WHAT’S NEXT?
Hormone-free/allergen claims see strong growth in 2010-15 launches
Figure 15: Ice cream and frozen novelties launches, by leading claims, June 2010-May 2015
Flavor innovation aims for adult appeal
Tea
Coffee
Alcohol
International
Vegetables may work to boost health profile
Smaller pack sizes allow for price/calorie control
Figure 16: Statements related to frozen treats (size), March 2015
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Millennials, Hispanics, parents appear as key consumers
Sweet satisfaction and snackability lead reasons for purchase
Non-dairy meets interests as well as needs
Frozen novelties may suffer from being pigeonholed for kids
FROZEN TREAT PURCHASE
Millennials, Hispanics, parents show interest in smaller parts of the market
Figure 17: Frozen treat purchase at a supermarket, convenience store, or other store, by generation, April 2015
Will gelato and frozen custard go the way of frozen yogurt?
Figure 18: Frozen treat (ice cream, gelato, frozen custard) purchase at a supermarket, convenience store ,or other store, by generation, April 2015
Figure 19: Frozen treat purchase at a supermarket, convenience store, or other store, by Hispanic origin, April 2015
Figure 20: Frozen treat (ice cream, gelato, frozen custard) purchase at a supermarket, convenience store, or other store, by Hispanic origin, April 2015
Figure 21: Frozen treat purchase at a supermarket, convenience store, or other store, by parental status, April 2015
Sherbet, sorbet, ices, turnaround may be on the horizon
Figure 22: Frozen treat purchase at store – CHAID – Tree output, April 2015
Figure 23: Frozen treat purchase at store – CHAID – Table output, April 2015
REASONS FOR PURCHASE
Sweet satisfaction and snackability lead reasons for purchase
Figure 24: Reasons for purchase, by generation, April 2015
Shake positioning may be a cool move
Figure 25: Reasons for purchase (use), by generation, April 2015
FROZEN TREAT TRAITS
Single-flavor varieties rule
Figure 26: Frozen treat traits, April 2015
Customization and international flavors can match interests of key purchase groups
Figure 27: Statements related to frozen treats (flavor), by generation, March 2015
Local ingredients can be a consideration for future product development
Figure 28: Statements related to frozen treats (local ingredients), by generation, March 2015
Non-dairy meets interests as well as needs
Figure 29: Reasons for choosing non-dairy, April 2015
PERCEPTIONS OF FROZEN TREATS
Frozen novelties may suffer from being pigeonholed for kids
Figure 30: Correspondence Analysis – Characteristics associated with frozen treats, April 2015
Figure 31: Characteristics associated with frozen treats, April 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
CHAID methodology
Correspondence map methodol
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 32: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 33: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 34: Total US retail volume sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2010-15
Figure 35: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 37: MULO sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 38: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 39: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 40: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/dairy alternatives, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/dairy alternatives, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 42: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 44: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 45: US convenience sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 46: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
Natural channel sales
Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 2013-April 2015
Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen desserts, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of organic frozen desserts, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
Figure 51: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
Figure 52: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
Figure 53: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
Figure 54: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by lactose-free labeling, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
Figure 55: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 56: MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 57: MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 58: MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 59: MULO sales of frozen yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 60: MULO sales of sherbet, sorbet and ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 61: Frozen treats launches, by top 10 claims 2010-15*
Figure 62: Ice cream launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
Figure 63: Frozen novelty launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
Figure 64: Frozen yogurt/dairy alternative launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
Figure 65: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*

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