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Frozen Breakfast Foods - US - July 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Frozen breakfast handhelds only segment to grow
Figure 1: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods ($ millions), by segment, 2010-15
Strong competition from other breakfast foods
Figure 2: Personal consumption and purchase of select breakfast foods, April 2015
Consumers remain skeptical about nutrition
Figure 3: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
The opportunities
Emphasize similarities to foodservice options
Figure 4: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by frozen breakfast foods consumption – Any consumption, April 2015
Promote occasions outside of breakfast
Figure 5: Frozen breakfast food behaviors, April 2015
Highlight product ingredients, nutrition
Figure 6: Important product attributes, April 2015
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Frozen breakfast sales struggle to grow
Increased away-from-home food spending
Declining households with children negatively impact category
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Strong historic growth, but future gains expected to be modest
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2010-2020
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-2020
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Frozen breakfast handhelds largest segment, only growth
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by segment share, 2015
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods ($ millions), by segment, 2010- 2015
Other retail channels gain market share
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods ($ millions), by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Foodservice a competitive threat
Figure 13: Day part where consumers purchase, retail versus foodservice, by nets – February 2015
Numerous breakfast options
Figure 14: Personal consumption and purchase of select breakfast foods, April 2015
MARKET FACTORS
Favorable spending outlook
Figure 15: Consumer Confidence, 2007-15
Figure 16: Food sales at home and away from home, 2003-15
Decline in households with children
Figure 17: Personal consumption of select frozen breakfast foods, November 2008 – December 2014
Figure 18: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Hillshire, Kellogg sales represent more than half of the category
Convenient, healthy formats see success
Waffle segment declines
BFY products to become more mainstream
MANUFACTURER SALES OF FROZEN BREAKFAST FOODS
Hillshire, Kellogg represent more than half of category sales
Manufacturer sales of frozen breakfast foods
Figure 19: MULO sales of frozen breakfast food, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Portable options
Figure 20: MULO sales of Jimmy Dean’s frozen breakfast handhelds
Figure 21: MULO sales of Kellogg’s frozen breakfast handhelds
Figure 22: MULO sales of Kellogg’s Eggo frozen breakfast entrées
Figure 23: MULO sales of hot Pockets frozen breakfast handhelds
Better-for-you
Figure 24: MULO sales of De Wafelbakkers frozen breakfast entrées
Figure 25: MULO sales of Lean Cuisine Morning Collection frozen breakfast handhelds
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Real fruit not enough to boost sales
Figure 26: MULO sales of Pillsbury other frozen breakfast foods
Figure 27: MULO sales of Weight Watchers frozen breakfast entrées
Waffle segment struggles
Figure 28: “Breakfast Network” Eggo TV commercial, April 2015
Figure 29: MULO sales of Kellogg’s frozen waffles
Homestyle handhelds
Figure 30: MULO sales of Marie Callender’s frozen breakfast handhelds
Figure 31: MULO sales of Odom’s Tennessee Pride’s frozen breakfast handhelds
WHAT’S NEXT?
Artificial is out, ingredients you can see, recognize are in
Retail brands put the fresh in frozen?
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Parents, Millennials most likely to eat frozen breakfast foods
Consumers value nutritional attributes
Occasions outside of breakfast equally important
FROZEN BREAKFAST FOODS CONSUMPTION
Four in five adults eat frozen breakfast foods
Figure 32: Frozen breakfast foods consumption, April 2015
Households with children more likely to eat frozen breakfast foods
Figure 33: Frozen breakfast foods consumption, by parental status, April 2015
iGeneration/Millennials more likely to eat all types of frozen breakfast foods
Figure 34: Frozen breakfast foods consumption, by generation, April 2015
REASONS FOR EATING
Ease of preparation, convenience, largest drivers
Figure 35: Reasons for eating frozen breakfast foods, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
Figure 36: Reasons for eating frozen breakfast foods, by generation, April 2015
IMPORTANT PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES
High protein, fiber, most important
Figure 37: Important product attributes, April 2015
INFLUENTIAL FACTORS FOR INCREASING PURCHASE
Quality ingredients, product trial influential
Figure 38: Influential factors for increasing purchase, by frozen breakfast foods consumption – Any consumption, April 2015
Figure 39: Influential factors for increasing purchase, by parental status, April 2015
Restaurant-quality options can boost purchase among males
Figure 40: Influential factors for increasing purchase – Restaurant-quality options – CHAID – Tree output, April 2015
FROZEN BREAKFAST FOOD BEHAVIORS
Consumption not limited to the breakfast occasion
Figure 41: Frozen breakfast food behaviors, April 2015
iGeneration/Millennials more likely to eat on the go
Figure 42: Frozen breakfast foods behaviors, by generation, April 2015
Handhelds, other frozen breakfast foods more versatile
Figure 43: Frozen breakfast foods behaviors, by frozen breakfast foods consumption – Any consumption, April 2015
ATTITUDES TOWARD FROZEN BREAKFAST FOODS
Appeal to Millennials’ willingness to try new foods
Figure 44: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by generation, April 2015
Restaurant savings to appeal to frozen handheld eaters
Figure 45: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by frozen breakfast foods consumption – Any consumption, April 2015
Hispanics more critical of food pricing, ingredients
Figure 46: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2010-2020
Figure 48: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrées, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast handhelds, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen waffles, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of other frozen breakfast food, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 53: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 54: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 55: US supermarket sales of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 56: US sales of frozen breakfast foods, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 57: MULO sales of frozen breakfast entrées, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 58: MULO sales of frozen breakfast handhelds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 59: MULO sales of frozen waffles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 60: MULO sales of other frozen breakfast foods, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Figure 61: Attitudes/opinions about food, November 2013 – December 2014
Figure 62: Attitudes/opinions about food, November 2013 – December 2014
APPENDIX – CHAID ANALYSIS
Methodology
Figure 63: Influential factors for increasing purchase – CHAID – Table output, April 2015

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