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Nail Color and Care - US - January 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
After years of growth, category sales have stalled
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2009-19
Women less engaged in the nail category
Figure 2: Mean (#) use of nail products among women and teens, April 2008-June 2014
Women are returning to the salon
Figure 3: Nail services done at a salon, October 2013 and November 2014
The opportunities
Focus on women aged 25-34
Figure 4: Frequency of doing nails, by women aged 18-24 and 25-34, November 2014
Highlight natural and gentle claims
Figure 5: Attitudes toward ingredients in nail products, November 2014
Figure 6: Interest in natural nail product concepts, November 2014
Emphasize ease of use and convenience
Figure 7: Attitudes toward use of nail products and nail maintenance, November 2014
Figure 8: Interest in convenient nail products and services, November 2014
What we think
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Trend-driven nature of nail category Impacts historic and projected sales performance
Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2009-19
Historical sales trends of nail color and care
Figure 11: Percent change in sales of nail color and care products, 2000-14
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Figure 12: Sales of nail color and care, by segment share, 2014
Figure 13: Sales of nail color and care, by segment, 2009-14
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Figure 14: Sales of color cosmetics, by segment, 2012 and 2014
MARKET FACTORS
Economy continues to stabilize
Figure 15: Types of nail services done – At a salon, by household income, November 2014
Declining participation in the nail category
Figure 16: Nail product usage among women and teens, April 2008-June 2014
Figure 17: Mean (#) use of nail products among women and teens, April 2008-June 2014
Women returning to more classic nail polish shades
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
CONSISTENT WITH SALES DECLINES, LEADING BRANDS STRUGGLE
Manufacturer sales of nail color and care
Figure 18: Leading manufacturer sales of nail color and care, 2013 and 2014
WHAT’S WORKING?
Gel hybrid products
Figure 19: MULO sales of Sally Hansen Miracle Gel Nail Polish, 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014
Unique collaborations
Nail treatments
Figure 20: MULO sales of select Sally Hansen nail treatments, 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Special effect polish
Figure 21: MULO sales of select special effect nail polishes, 2011-14
Artificial nails
Figure 22: MULO sales of select Broadway Nails artificial nails, 2011-14
Nail polish strips
Figure 23: MULO sales of Sally Hansen Salon Effects Nail Polish Strips, 2011-14
WHAT’S NEXT?
Convenient forms
Natural products
Super premium polish
Nail polish as wearable tech
THE CONSUMER - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
TYPES OF NAIL SERVICES DONE
Pedicures, single color manicures are most common nail services
Figure 24: Types of nail services done, November 2014
SALON AND AT-HOME NAIL SERVICES
Growing reliance on the salon is leading to mixed results for the at-home market
Figure 25: Nail services done at a salon, October 2013 and November 2014
Figure 26: Nail services done myself, October 2013 and November 2014
NAIL PRODUCTS USED
Colored polish is most used nail product
Figure 27: Nail products used, by age, November 2014
FREQUENCY OF DOING NAILS
Opportunity to focus marketing efforts on women aged 25-34
Figure 28: Frequency of doing nails, by age, November 2014
NUMBER OF NAIL POLISHES OWNED AND USED
Women own more nail polish than they use
Figure 29: Number of nail polishes owned and used, November 2014
TIME SPENT ON NAILS
Young women spending less time in the nail category
Figure 30: Time spent on nails, November 2014
ATTITUDES TOWARD NAIL PRODUCTS
Despite upsides, women express some concerns about nail care
Figure 31: Select attitudes toward nail products, by age, November 2014
SHOPPING FOR NAIL PRODUCTS
Women inclined to stick with what they like
Figure 32: Select attitudes toward shopping for nail products, by age, November 2014
INTEREST IN TRYING NAIL PRODUCT CONCEPTS
Natural, convenience-driven concepts generate strong interest
Interest in natural concepts fueled by concerns about ingredient safety
Smaller, easy-to-use products translate to convenience and eco-consciousness
Figure 33: Interest in trying select nail product concepts, by age, November 2014
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 34: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Figure 35: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Figure 36: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14"
Figure 37: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Figure 38: Changes in DPI (disposable personal income), 2007-14
Figure 39: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, 2007-14
Figure 40: Summary of bases for nail product usage and mean (#) usage of nail products, April 2008-June 2014
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 41: MULO sales of nail polish, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Figure 42: MULO sales of nail accessories and implements, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Figure 43: MULO sales of nail treatments, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Figure 44: MULO sales of artificial nails and accessories, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Figure 45: MULO sales of nail polish removers, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Figure 46: Brands of nail products used, April 2008-June 2014
Figure 47: Frequency of use, April 2008-June 2014
Figure 48: Brands of nail products used among teen girls, April 2008-June 2014
Figure 49: Frequency of use among teen girls, April 2008-June 2014

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