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Beer - US - January 2015

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The $97 billion beer market’s volume shrinks further
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of beer, at current prices, 2009-19
Market drivers
Companies, Brands, and Innovation
Figure 2: MULO sales ($ millions) of beer and cider, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 5, 2014
The consumer
Figure 3: Beer consumption by type, September 2014
Figure 4: Attributes that may increase domestic/imported beer usage, September 2014
Figure 5: Beer consumption attitudes (consumption and flavor), September 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Should big beer become more transparent?
Issues
Insights
Should big beer target Millennials via the beer-food connection?
Issue
Insight
Is beer’s demise as bad as it sounds?
Issue
Insight
Figure 6: Alcoholic beverage purchases, by generations – any consumption, February 2014
Figure 7: Trended alcohol consumption (# of drinks), by type, April 2009-June 2014
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Non-Standard Society
Trend: The Real Thing
Trend: Experience Is All
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Improving economy may lead to shifts with off- and on-premise consumption
Figure 8: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2011-November 2014*
Figure 9: Disposable personal income, January 2011-October 2014*
Figure 10: Consumer confidence, January 2012-November 2014*
Estimated Hispanic population growth could slow beer’s decline a bit
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Beer volumes down, dollar sales incrementally increase
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of beer, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 12: US volume sales and forecast of beer, 2009-18
Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of beer, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of beer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Imports and craft brands bright spots in a declining market
Figure 15: US volume sales of beer, by type, 2009, 2014, 2018
Figure 16: US volume sales of light beer, 2009-18
Figure 17: US volume sales of super-premium and premium beer, 2009-18
Figure 18: US volume sales of imported beer, 2009-18
Figure 19: US volume sales of craft beer, 2009-18
Figure 20: US volume sales of popular beer, 2009-18
Figure 21: US volume sales of ice beer, 2009-18
Figure 22: US volume sales of malt liquor beer, 2009-18
Hard cider rapidly gaining ground
Figure 23: US volume sales of hard cider, 2010-14
SALES CHANNELS
Key points
Off-premise beer consumption gains some ground during 2009-14
Figure 24: US volume sales of beer, by channel, 2009-14
Craft/premium beer’s star is rising in retail, but big beer is getting lost in the shuffle
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRAND ANALYSIS
Key points
Two giants losing market share
AB-InBev
MillerCoors
Constellation Brands Inc.
Heineken USA Inc.
Boston Beer Co.
Other brands and cider
Figure 25: MULO sales of beer and cider, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 5, 2014
Figure 26: MULO sales of beer, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 5, 2014
Figure 27: MULO sales of cider, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 5, 2014
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Key points
Craft brands driving innovation numbers in recent years
Figure 28: Beer launches, by leading companies, 2010-14*
Figure 29: Beer launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-14*
Figure 30: Beer launches, by top launch types and packaging, 2010-14*
Middle ground between basic lager and craft flavors bears examination
Other recent innovations and marketing of note
Budweiser centers on younger adults with a host of advertising angles
Figure 31: Budweiser Global Be(er) Responsible Day;  “Friends Are Waiting” TV ad, September 2014
Miller Fortune targets “middle premiums”
Figure 32: Better (Miller Fortune) TV ad, March 2014
SOCIAL MEDIA
Key findings
Market overview
 KEY SOCIAL MEDIA METRICS
Figure 33: Key social media metrics, December 2014
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 34: Brand usage and awareness for select beer brands, Oct. 2014
Interactions with beer brands
Figure 35: Interaction levels for select beer brands, Oct. 2014
 LEADING ONLINE CAMPAIGNS
Sporting events
Lifestyle marketing
What we think
 ONLINE CONVERSATIONS
Figure 36: Online mentions for select beer brands, by week, Dec. 22, 2013-Dec. 21, 2014
Where are people talking about beer online?
Figure 37: Online mentions for select beer brands, by week, Dec. 22, 2013-Dec. 21, 2014
What are people talking about online?
Figure 38: Topics of conversation for select beer brands, Dec. 22, 2013-Dec. 21, 2014
BEER CONSUMPTION BY TYPE
Key points
Beer usage continues to favor men
Figure 39: Beer consumption by type, by gender, September 2014
Youthful drinkers are still core beer drinking group
Figure 40: Beer consumption by type, by age, September 2014
Affluents lead the pack with beer consumption
Figure 41: Beer consumption by type, by household income, September 2014
Beer usage by volume and type
Figure 42: Trended beer consumption, by type, April 2009-June 2014
Figure 43: Trended beer consumption frequency (mean # of drinks), by type, April 2009-June 2014
Men continue downing considerably more beer than women
Figure 44: Beer consumption frequency (mean # of drinks), by type, by gender, April-June 2014
Despite market concerns, 21-34s are heaviest beer drinkers
Figure 45: Beer consumption frequency (mean # of drinks), by type, by age, April-June 2014
Why consumers haven’t recently tried mass-craft beer
Figure 46: Why consumers haven’t recently tried mass-craft beer, by gender, September 2014
Figure 47: Why consumers haven’t recently tried mass-craft beer, by age, September 2014
Figure 48: Why consumers haven’t recently tried mass-craft beer, by household income, September 2014
INTEREST IN BEER TYPES AND PACKAGING
Key points
Seasonal, fruit-flavored, and beer-based cocktails have appeal
Figure 49: Interest in types and packaging, September 2014
Women want beer-based cocktails; men find higher ABV appealing
Figure 50: Interest in types and packaging, by gender, September 2014
Adults 22-44 have tried, find more innovative beer types appealing
Figure 51: Interest in types and packaging, by age, September 2014
Higher-income consumers have tried more beer types
Figure 52: Interest in types and packaging, by household income, September 2014
Packaging concepts with functional benefits win
Figure 53: Interest in types and packaging, by gender, September 2014
Mature adults less interested in new beer concepts
Figure 54: Interest in types and packaging, by age, September 2014
Brand trumps flavor in 45+ purchase decision
Figure 55: What matters with beer purchases, by age, September 2014
BEER INNOVATION
Key points
Higher ABV and light beer flavor variants could spark growth
Figure 56: Attributes that may increase domestic/imported beer usage, by age, September 2014
Urbanites most interested in domestic/imported beer innovation
Figure 57: Attributes that may increase domestic/imported beer usage, by area, September 2014
Higher-income consumers have stronger interest in beer innovation
Figure 58: Attributes that may increase domestic/imported beer usage, by household income, September 2014
BEER CONSUMPTION ACTIVITIES
Key points
Video media and meal-time go hand in hand with beer consumption
Figure 59: Domestic/Imported Beer consumption activities, by gender, September 2014
35-44 drink beer while watching sports; 22-34 buy locally affiliated brands
Figure 60: Domestic/Imported Beer consumption activities, by age, September 2014
Urban beer drinkers OK consuming beer alone
Figure 61: Domestic/Imported Beer consumption activities, by area, September 2014
High-income consumers enjoy beer in a variety of ways
Figure 62: Domestic/Imported Beer consumption activities, by household income, September 2014
BEER CONSUMPTION ATTITUDES
Key points
Beer needs a facelift inside and out; quality is most important
Figure 63: Beer consumption attitudes, September 2014
Quality differences could help make brands more distinct
Figure 64: Beer consumption attitudes, by age, September 2014
Higher-income consumers prefer ingredient/label transparency, packaging advances
Figure 65: Beer consumption attitudes, by household income, September 2014
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Blacks and Hispanics represent core beer consumer groups
Figure 66: Beer consumption by type, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 67: Beer consumption frequency (mean # of drinks), by type, by race/Hispanic origin, April-June 2014
Figure 68: Why consumers haven’t recently tried mass-craft beer, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 69: Interest in types and packaging, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 70: Attributes that may increase domestic/imported beer usage, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 71: Domestic/Imported Beer consumption activities, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUPS
Custom group definition
Beer Programmers
My Meal, My Beers
Beer Creatives
Consumer tables – by beer user behavior
Figure 72: Beer consumption by type, by beer user behavior, September 2014
Figure 73: Why consumers haven’t recently tried mass-craft beer, by beer user behavior, September 2014
Figure 74: Interest in types and packaging, by beer user behavior, September 2014
Figure 75: Interest in types and packaging, by beer user behavior, September 2014
Figure 76: Attributes that may increase domestic/imported beer usage, by beer user behavior, September 2014
Figure 77: Domestic/Imported Beer consumption activities, by beer user behavior, September 2014
Figure 78: Beer consumption attitudes, by beer user behavior, September 2014
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL TABLES
Consumer data
Alcoholic beverage consumption locales
Figure 79: Alcoholic beverage consumption locales – Beer, January 2013-March 2014
Interest in types and packaging
Figure 80: Interest in types and packaging, by household income, September 2014
Figure 81: Interest in types and packaging, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
What matters with beer purchases
Figure 82: What matters with beer purchases, by gender, September 2014
Figure 83: What matters with beer purchases, by household income, September 2014
Figure 84: What matters with beer purchases, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Beer consumption attitudes
Figure 85: Beer consumption attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Custom consumer groups
Craft-captivateds
Beer’s Just OKs
Middle Of The Roads
Consumer tables – by beer consumption, by type
Figure 86: Interest in types and packaging, by beer consumption by type, September 2014
Figure 87: Interest in types and packaging, by beer consumption by type, September 2014
Figure 88: What matters with beer purchases, by beer consumption by type, September 2014
Figure 89: Attributes that may increase domestic/imported beer usage, by beer consumption by type, September 2014
Figure 90: Domestic/imported Beer consumption activities, by beer consumption by type, September 2014
Figure 91: Beer consumption attitudes, by beer consumption by type, September 2014
Market and demographic data
Figure 92: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009-19
Figure 93: Population by generation, 2009-19
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA – BEER
Brand usage or awareness
Figure 94: Brand usage or awareness, October 2014
Figure 95: Stella Artois usage or awareness, October 2014
Figure 96: Heineken usage or awareness, October 2014
Figure 97: Bud Light usage or awareness, October 2014
Figure 98: Coors Light usage or awareness, October 2014
Figure 99: Miller Lite usage or awareness, October 2014
Figure 100: Modelo Especial usage or awareness, October 2014
Activities done
Figure 101: Activities done, October 2014
Figure 102: Stella Artois – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 103: Stella Artois – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 104: Stella Artois – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 105: Heineken – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 106: Heineken – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 107: Heineken – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 108: Bud Light – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 109: Bud Light – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 110: Bud Light – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 111: Coors Light – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 112: Coors Light – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 113: Coors Light – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 114: Miller Lite – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 115: Miller Lite – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 116: Modelo Especial – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 117: Modelo Especial – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, October 2014
Key social media metrics
Figure 118: Key social media metrics, December 2014
Online conversations
Figure 119: Online mentions for select beer brands, by week, Dec. 22, 2013-Dec. 21, 2014
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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