Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies - US - November 2014

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Dollar sales in the category stagnate from 2009-14
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2009-19
Leading companies
Coca-Cola Co. represents 18% of MULO sales in the category
Figure 2: MULO sales of juice and juice drinks, by top six leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014 ($ millions)
Segment performance
The 100% juice segment continues to struggle
Figure 3: Total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by segment, at current prices ($ millions), 2009-14
The consumer
Three quarters of adults drink 100% juice and/or juice drinks
Figure 4: Personal juice and juice drink consumption, by age, September 2014
Consumers turn to juice for added nutrition and breakfast
Figure 5: Correspondence analysis, November 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How can juice move beyond breakfast?
Issue
Insight: Shine the spotlight on function, encourage sharing
How can the category address consumer interest in fresh?
Issue
Insight: Promote freshness where possible
What have we seen from premium juice?
Issue
Insight: Premium products are good attention-getting devices
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Transumers
Trend: Help Me Help Myself
Trend: Extend My Brand
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Declines projected through 2019
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2009-19
Forecast methodology
MARKET FACTORS
A quarter of consumers are buying less juice
Young consumers health/format conscious
Figure 9: Juice-related statements (change in purchase), by age, September 2014
Figure 10: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (health), by age, September 2014
Mixed messages make the category tough to navigate
Foodservice offerings have flavor appeal
Figure 11: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (competition), by age, September 2014
Competing beverage options abound
Figure 12: Correspondence Analysis, November 2014
Figure 13: Beverage use by occasion, November 2014
More than one quarter of juice buyers squeeze their own
Figure 14: Juice-related statements (behavior), by age, September 2014
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Smoothie segment is the only one to see positive two-year movement
Figure 15: Total US retail sales of fruit juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Sales of 100% juice dip 11% from 2009-14
US retail sales of 100% juice
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Frozen/refrigerated stays on top of 100% juice market
Figure 18: Sales of 100% juice, by format, at current prices, 2009-14
Juice drinks continuing to decline
US retail juice drinks
Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 20: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Frozen/refrigerated gains share on shelf-stable juice drinks
Figure 21: Sales of juice drinks, by format, at current prices, 2009-14
Smoothie sales grow by 166% to reach $790 million in 2014
US retail sales of smoothies
Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 23: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets represent more than half of category sales
Drug stores meet the need for convenience
Cold-pressed convenience
Figure 24: Total US retail sales of fruit juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Natural channel sales grow 28% from 2012-14
Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Refrigerated/frozen sees strongest gains in natural channel
Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juice/juice drinks, by form, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Products with no added sweeteners make up majority of natural channel sales
Figure 27: Supermarket sales of fruit juice/juice drinks, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Natural continues to outpace non-natural in natural channels
Figure 28: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juice/juice drinks, by "natural" designation, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Organic rules, but organic ingredients see strong percentage growth
Figure 29: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
More than half of natural channel offerings are packaged in glass
Figure 30: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by packaging, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRAND ANALYSIS
Key points
Coca-Cola represents 18% of MULO sales in the category
MULO sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies
Figure 31: MULO sales of juice and juice drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
PepsiCo’s Tropicana leads, but Coca-Cola tops the 100% juice segment
MULO sales of 100% juice
Figure 32: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Figure 33: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014 (Continued)
Coca-Cola and Kraft brands top juice drink performers at MULO
MULO sales of juice drinks
Figure 34: Sales of juice drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Figure 35: Sales of juice drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014 (Continued)
PepsiCo brands make up more than half of MULO sales of smoothies
MULO sales of smoothies
Figure 36: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
New packaging on the rise for 100% juice and juice drinks
Figure 37: 100% Juice launches, by launch type, 2010-14*
Figure 38: Juice drink launches, by launch type, 2010-14*
Category would do well to put greater emphasis on natural
Figure 39: 100% juice launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-14*
Figure 40: Juice drink launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-14*
Chilled products on the rise
Figure 41: 100% juice launches, by storage type, 2010-14*
Figure 42: Juice drink launches, by storage type, 2010-14*
Smaller sizes up among 100% juice
Figure 43: 100% juice launches, by top 10 pack sizes, 2010-14*
SOCIAL MEDIA
Key findings
Market overview
Key social media metrics
Figure 44: Key social media metrics for select juice brands, October 2014
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 45: Brand usage and awareness for select juice brands, September 2014
Interactions with juice brands
Figure 46: Interaction levels for select juice brands, September 2014
Leading online campaigns
Challenges
Packaging
Charitable involvement
What we think
Online conversations
Figure 47: Online conversations among select juice brands, Oct. 13, 2013-Oct. 12, 2014
Where are people talking about juice brands?
Figure 48: Online conversations among select juice brands, Oct. 13, 2013-Oct. 12, 2014
What are people talking about?
Figure 49: Topics of conversation around select juice brands, Oct. 13, 2013-Oct. 12, 2014
JUICE PURCHASE AND CONSUMPTION
Key points
100% juice is preferred over juice drinks
Lower earning HHs less likely than higher earners to buy in to category
Figure 50: Household juice and juice drink purchase, by household income, September 2014
Men are strong targets for vegetable juice consumption
Figure 51: Personal juice and juice drink consumption, by gender, September 2014
25-34s lead consumption
Figure 52: Personal juice and juice drink consumption, by age, September 2014
Figure 53: Smoothies, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Refrigerated offerings find widest appeal
Fresh appeals to younger consumers
Figure 54: Juice-related statements (format), by age, September 2014
…but may appear as cost prohibitive
Figure 55: Juice-related statements (format), by household income, September 2014
Multi-serving rules
Single-serving appeals to younger consumers
Figure 56: Juice-related statements (size), by age, September 2014
Figure 57: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (packaging), by age, September 2014
CONSUMPTION OCCASIONS
Key points
Category limited by narrow perception of use
Youngest respondents least interested in nutrition
Figure 58: Juice/juice drink use by occasion, by age, September 2014
Figure 59: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (occasion), by age, September 2014
Figure 60: Juice-related statements (behavior), by age, September 2014
100% single-fruit juice rules for breakfast
Figure 61: Juice/juice drink use by occasion, by household juice purchase (1 of 3), September 2014
Figure 62: Juice/juice drink use by occasion, by household juice purchase (2 of 3), September 2014
Figure 63: Juice/juice drink use by occasion, by household juice purchase (3 of 3), September 2014
100% fruit juice works as snack; 100% multi-veg juice weight control go-to
Figure 64: Personal juice and juice drink consumption, by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (1 of 3), September 2014
Figure 65: Personal juice and juice drink consumption, by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (2 of 3), September 2014
Figure 66: Personal juice and juice drink consumption, by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (3 of 3), September 2014
Single-serve bottles important for those looking for hydration
Figure 67: Juice-related statements (size), by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (1 of 3), September 2014
Figure 68: Juice-related statements (size), by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (2 of 3), September 2014
Figure 69: Juice-related statements (size), by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (3 of 3), September 2014
Weight conscious most likely to squeeze their own
Figure 70: Juice-related statements (behavior), by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (1 of 3), September 2014
Figure 71: Juice-related statements (behavior), by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (2 of 3), September 2014
Figure 72: Juice-related statements (behavior), by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (3 of 3), September 2014
Nearly one quarter of smoothie drinkers do so for added nutrition
Figure 73: RTD smoothie use by occasion, by age, September 2014
SUGAR REDUCTION
Key points
More than one quarter of juice buyers buy reduced-sugar varieties
Figure 74: Juice-related statements (reduced sugar), by age, September 2014
Sugar control may be cost prohibitive
Figure 75: Juice-related statements (reduced sugar), by household income, September 2014
No sugar added leads sugar reduction tactic of interest
Older consumers don’t want added sugar, younger OK with smaller bottles
Figure 76: Sugar reduction, by age, September 2014
Half of non-drinkers appear somewhat interested in sugar reduction
Figure 77: Sugar reduction, by household juice purchase, September 2014
INNOVATION OF INTEREST
Key points
All natural leads interest in juice innovation
Nearly half of 25-34s look for all-natural products
Figure 78: Innovation of interest, by age, September 2014
Flavor innovation might resonate with younger shoppers, drive health innovation
Figure 79: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (innovation), by age, September 2014
Texture best reserved for higher-price-point products
Figure 80: Innovation of interest, by household income, September 2014
Unique fruit may be better left to non-breakfast occasions
Consumers see relationship between protein and exercise
Figure 81: Innovation of interest, by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (1 of 3), September 2014
Figure 82: Innovation of interest, by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (2 of 3), September 2014
Figure 83: Innovation of interest, by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (3 of 3), September 2014
New flavors might be a welcome change for weight watchers
Figure 84: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (innovation), by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (1 of 3), September 2014
Figure 85: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (innovation), by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (2 of 3), September 2014
Figure 86: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (innovation), by juice or juice drink consumption occasion (3 of 3), September 2014
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Asian consumers and shoppers of Hispanic origin strong targets
Figure 87: Household juice and juice drink purchase, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Fresh is big draw among Hispanics
Figure 88: Juice-related statements (types purchased), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 89: Juice-related statements (behavior), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Hispanics gravitate toward single-serving purchase
Figure 90: Juice-related statements (types purchased), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 91: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (packaging), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
More than one third of Hispanics say they are buying less
Figure 92: Juice-related statements (types purchased), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 93: Juice-related statements (types purchased), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 94: Sugar reduction, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Black consumers turn to juice for breakfast; Asians see it as a treat
Figure 95: Juice/juice drink use by occasion, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Hunger satiation may appeal to Asians in smoothie positioning; Hispanics look for energy boost
Figure 96: RTD smoothie use by occasion, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Natural is a strong driver among Asians; Hispanics interested in flavor innovation
Figure 97: Innovation of interest, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 98: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (innovation), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Asians want healthy kid options; texture represents health for Hispanics
Figure 99: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (health), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Foodservice tie-ins may attract Asians and Hispanics
Figure 100: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (competition), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUP – HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN
Key points
Households with children are significantly more likely to purchase all products measured here
Figure 101: Household juice and juice drink purchase, by presence of children in household, September 2014
Households with children are significantly more likely to purchase all products measured here
Figure 102: Household juice and juice drink purchase, by parents with children in household, September 2014
Figure 103: Other juices and drinks, April 2013-June 2014
Dads open to vegetable juice
Figure 104: Household juice and juice drink purchase, by parental status, September 2014
Fresh-squeezed appeals to parents
Figure 105: Juice-related statements (types purchased), by presence of children in household, September 2014
Figure 106: Juice-related statements (behavior), by parents with children in household, September 2014
Small formats particularly resonate with households with children
Figure 107: Juice-related statements (types purchased), by presence of children in household, September 2014
Figure 108: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (packaging), by presence of children in household, September 2014
Drink mixes may present strong competition among HHs with children
Figure 109: Juice-related statements (types purchased), by presence of children in household, September 2014
Seven in 10 households with children interested in sugar reduction
Figure 110: Sugar reduction, by presence of children in household, September 2014
Figure 111: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (health), by presence of children in household, September 2014
Figure 112: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (health), by parental status, September 2014
Promoting juice use throughout the day will be key for HHs with kids
Figure 113: Agreement with attitudes toward juice (occasion), by presence of children in household, September 2014
Figure 114: Orange juice, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 115: Other juices and drinks, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 116: Orange juice, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 117: Orange juice, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 118: Other juice or lemonade, April 2013-June 2014
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA
Brand usage or awareness
Figure 119: Brand usage or awareness, September 2014
Figure 120: Evolution Fresh usage or awareness, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 121: Naked usage or awareness, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 122: Odwalla usage or awareness, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 123: Tropicana usage or awareness, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 124: V8 usage or awareness, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 125: Capri Sun usage or awareness, by demographics, September 2014
Activities done
Figure 126: Activities done, September 2014
Figure 127: Evolution Fresh – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 128: Evolution Fresh – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 129: Evolution Fresh – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 130: Evolution Fresh – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 131: Naked – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 132: Naked – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 133: Naked – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 134: Naked – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 135: Odwalla – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 136: Odwalla – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 137: Odwalla – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 138: Odwalla – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 139: Tropicana – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 140: Tropicana – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 141: Tropicana – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 142: Tropicana – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 143: V8 – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 144: V8 – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 145: V8 – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 146: V8 – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 147: Capri Sun – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 148: Capri Sun – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 149: Capri Sun – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
Figure 150: Capri Sun – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
Key social media metrics
Figure 151: Key social media metrics for select juice brands, October 2014
Online conversations
Figure 152: Online conversations among select juice brands, Oct. 13, 2013-Oct. 12, 2014
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL TABLES
Juice purchase
Figure 153: Household juice and juice drink purchase, by gender and age, September 2014
Figure 154: Personal juice and juice drink consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Figure 155: Juice-related statements (format), by gender and age, September 2014
Figure 156: Juice-related statements (size), by gender and age, September 2014
Figure 157: Juice-related statements (change in purchase), by gender and age, September 2014
Figure 158: Orange juice in bottles, cans or cartons, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Juice behavior
Figure 159: Juice-related statements (behavior), by gender and age, September 2014
Consumption occasions
Figure 160: Juice/juice drink use by occasion, by gender and age, September 2014
Smoothie occasions
Figure 161: RTD smoothie use by occasion, by gender and age, September 2014
Sugar reduction
Figure 162: Juice-related statements (reduced sugar), by gender and age, September 2014
Figure 163: Sugar reduction, by gender and age, September 2014
Figure 164: Sugar reduction, by household income, September 2014
Innovations of interest
Figure 165: Innovation of interest, by gender and age, September 2014
Attitudes toward juice
Figure 166: Attitudes toward juice, September 2014
Flavors
Figure 167: Orange juice in bottles, cans or cartons, by presence of children in household, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 168: Other fruit juices and drinks, by age, April 2013-June 2014
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS