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Cruises - UK - October 2014

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Growth stalled but major capacity increase due in 2015
Figure 1: Volume forecast of sea cruises, 2014-19
Figure 2: Value forecast of sea cruises, 2014-19
Full steam ahead for no-fly cruise
Figure 3: UK sea cruise market, fly cruises versus UK port departures, 2008-13
Market factors
Fuel challenge
Ageing society offers big opportunity
Figure 4: UK age group projections, 2014-2034
Companies, brands and innovation
Figure 5: Top ten global cruise brands estimated share of global capacity, 2014
New vessels offer high-tech and design-led approaches
Co-creation cruise
Excursions forced to raise their game
The consumer
Three in ten adults are would-be cruisers
Figure 6: UK adults by sea cruise holiday target groups, July 2014
The gastro-cruiser
Figure 7: Influences on choosing a cruise holiday, July 2014
UK port departures now more popular than fly-cruise
Figure 8: Interest in taking particular types of cruise holiday, July 2014
Several holidays in one
Figure 9: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by ‘interested’ target groups July 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How might rising fuel costs re-shape the cruise product?
The facts
The implications
On which demographic groups should cruise brands concentrate their marketing resources?
The facts
The implications
What are the opportunities for river cruises?
The facts
The implications
How can cruise holidays appeal to AB independent travellers who would not normally consider a mainstream cruise?
The facts
The implications
TREND APPLICATION
Make it Mine
Extend My Brand
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Overseas holidays still some way off recovery
Figure 10: Overseas holidays, volume and expenditure 2008-13
Figure 11: Sterling exchange rate, 2009-14
Oil price pressure eases…
Figure 12: Brent Spot Oil Price, January 2000-June 2014
… but new fuel challenges mounting
APD reform offers boost to Caribbean cruises
Figure 13: Advanced Passenger Duty (APD) rates April 2012-April 2015
Cruise truce with agents
Ageing population promises cruise bonanza
Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2009-19
Figure 15: UK age group projections, based on 2012 population data, 2014-2034
Retirement & pension changes
Ageing singles growth
Figure 16: Projected singles population by age group, England & Wales, 2008-2033
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Hi-tech cruise
Boutique Britannia
Metal mariners & crochet cruisers
DIY itineraries
Virtual cruising
Sea/land combo
New wave of excursions
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Growth stalls but new supply boost in 2015
Figure 17: UK sea cruise market volume and value, 2004-19
Discounting rescues market from decline
2014 and beyond
Forecast
Figure 18: Volume forecast of sea cruises, 2014-19
Figure 19: Value forecast of sea cruises, 2014-19
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
No fly cruise accounts for all growth since 2010
Figure 20: UK sea cruise market, fly cruises versus UK port departures, 2008-13
Norway becomes most popular no-fly destination
Figure 21: UK sea cruise market, by destination, 2008-13
Ultra-luxury cruise up 38% over past five years
Figure 22: Volume of UK ultra-luxury cruises taken, 2008-13
The age of cruisers gets higher
Figure 23: Age analysis of cruise holidaymakers, 2006-13*
The multiple cruiser
Figure 24: Number of cruises taken in the last year (%), 2008-13
Late booking trend
Figure 25: How long before cruise holidays bookings were made, by percentage of bookings, 2006-13
Take me to the river
Figure 26: UK river cruise market, passenger volume by destination, 2009-13
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Overall supply
Figure 27: Estimated global cruise industry capacity (number of berths), 2014-18, as at 1st quarter 2014
Carnival controls six out of top ten brands
Figure 28: Top ten global cruise brands by estimated capacity (number of berths), 2008-18, as at 1st quarter 2014
UK-based brands
New entrants
Viking invasion
Figure 29: Selected leading river cruise brands by estimated capacity, 2008-18, as at 1st quarter 2014
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Cruise advertising
Figure 30: Top 20 cruise advertisers, by brand, 2012-14
Figure 31: Cruise advertising expenditure, by media type, 2012-14
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Carnival Corporation
Figure 32: Key financials for Carnival Corporation, 2012 and 2013
Selected Carnival brands
Holland America Line
Princess Cruises
P&O Cruises
Royal Caribbean Cruises limited
Figure 33: Key financials for Royal Caribbean Cruises ltd, 2012 and 2013
Selected Royal Caribbean brands
Royal Caribbean International
Celebrity Cruises
MSC Cruises
Figure 34: MSC Cruises Limited key financials 201213
Hurtigruten
Figure 35: Key financials for Hurtigruten Group, 2012 and 2013
Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines
Figure 36: Key financials for Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines ltd, 2011-12
Viking River Cruises
Figure 37: Key financials for Viking River Cruises, 2012 and 2013
SEA & RIVER CRUISE TAKING
Key points
Figure 38: Sea and river cruises, previous experience and future intentions, July 2014
A third of adults interested in cruising
Cruise groups
Figure 39: UK adults by sea cruise holiday target groups, July 2014
Figure 40: UK adults by river cruise holiday target groups, July 2014
IMPORTANT FACTORS IN CHOOSING A CRUISE
Key points
Dining experience is critical success factor
Figure 41: Influences on choosing a cruise holiday, July 2014
Figure 42: Important factors in choosing a cruise by Satisfied Cruisers and New Potentials, July 2014
Value of excursions
Family favourites
Room with a view
INTEREST IN TAKING DIFFERENT TYPES OF CRUISE
Key points
No fly cruise is now most popular
Figure 43: Interest in taking particular types of cruise holiday, July 2014
Pushing the boat out
Mini-cruise potential
Figure 44: Interest in taking different types of cruise by Satisfied Cruisers and New Potentials, July 2014
Demographic factors
Child-free cruising
Best of both worlds
PREFERRED SEA CRUISE DESTINATIONS
Key points
Caribbean is dream destination
Figure 45: Most popular sea cruise destinations, July 2014
Figure 46: Preferred sea cruise destinations by Satisfied Cruisers and New Potentials, July 2014
Figure 47: Preferred sea cruise destinations by lifestage groups, July 2014
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CRUISES
Key points
Expensive exploration
Figure 48: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, July 2014
Figure 49: Attitudes towards cruise holidays by target groups, July 2014
Variety is spice of cruising life
Awareness gap re on-board experience
Restrictiveness a key deterrent
Demographic factors

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