Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - July 2014

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Ice cream and frozen novelties sales freeze in 2014
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2009-19
Leading companies
Blue Bell pushes 10% growth as other leaders decline
Figure 2: MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties at retail,  by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Segment performance
Steady growth of frozen yogurt slows in 2014
Figure 3: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties (and percentage change) ($ millions), by segment, at current prices, 2009-14
Competitive context
Figure 4: Reasons for buying less (top five), April 2014
The consumer
Nearly a third of frozen treat eaters look for all-natural products
Figure 5: Retail purchase drivers (health-related) (top five), April 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Why the slowdown in ice cream and frozen novelty sales?
Issues
Insight: Expand permissible indulgence
What are growth opportunities in the ice cream and frozen novelties category?
Issue
Insight: Emphasize quality, even in smaller formats
How strong is the demand for non-dairy frozen treats?
Issue
Insight: Expanding dairy-free offerings may be one means of shining up the health halo
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Non-Standard Society
Trend: Factory Fear
Trend: Locavore
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Ice cream and frozen novelties sales freeze in 2014
Sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecast
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2009-19
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Consumers eating less ice cream and frozen novelties
Figure 9: Change in purchase, by purchase by segment, April 2014
Figure 10: Change in purchase, personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
Health concerns lead reasons for cutting back
Figure 11: Reasons for buying less, by purchase by segment, April 2014
Figure 12: Reasons for buying less, by purchase by segment, April 2014 (continued)
Close to half of frozen treats eaters say restaurant/ice cream shop offerings are better quality than the freezer case
Figure 13: Household frozen treat purchase, by personal location, April 2014
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Frozen yogurt grows, but remains small part of the market
Figure 14: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Ice cream sales grow 6% from 2009-14, boosted by gelato
US retail sales of ice cream
Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Spotlight on gelato
US retail sales of gelato brands within the ice cream segment
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of gelato brands within the ice cream segment at current prices, 2009-19
Frozen novelties grow 7% from 2009-14
US retail sales of frozen novelties
Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Frozen yogurt and tofu segment grows 67% from 2009-19
US retail sales of frozen yogurt and tofu
Figure 20: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt and tofu at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 21: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt and tofu at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Sherbet, sorbet, and ices only segment to fall over measurement period
US retail sales of sherbet, sorbet, and ices
Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 23: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets continue to dominate, despite sales declines
Figure 24: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2012-14
Store brands represent slightly more than a quarter of launches
Figure 25: Frozen treats launches, by private label, 2010-14
Young shoppers open to wider array of purchase locations
Figure 26: Purchase location, by age, April 2014
Low-income households look to save on frozen treats at mass outlets
Figure 27: Purchase location, by household income, April 2014
Mass merchandisers and club stores appeal to HHs with children
Figure 28: Purchase location, by presence of children in household, April 2014
High-frequency eaters patronize a range of outlets
Figure 29: Purchase location, personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRAND ANALYSIS
Key points
Nestlé and Unilever continue to reign, Blue Bell posts strongest growth
MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
Figure 30: MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Ice cream segment grows slightly as leading brands focus on flavor
Figure 31: Blue Bell TV Ad, “Show and Tell,” 2014
Figure 32: Blue Bunny TV Ad, “Real Ice Cream. Real Moments.”  2014
MULO sales of ice cream
Figure 33: MULO sales of ice cream at retail,  by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Popularity of Greek yogurt boosts frozen yogurt sales
Figure 34: Cherry Garcia, Product Description, July 2014
Figure 35: Introducing Two New Healthy Choice Flavors, Twitter Photo, July 2014
Figure 36: “World’s Shortest Grant Application - #140difference,” YouTube Video, 2014
MULO sales of frozen yogurt
Figure 37: MULO sales of frozen yogurt at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Sherbet, sorbet, and ices segment declines from poor differentiation
Figure 38: “Talenti Gelato: A Vacation For Your Mouth,” YouTube Video, 2014
MULO sales of sherbet, sorbet, and ices
Figure 39: MULO sales of sherbet, sorbet, and ices at retail,  by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
New frozen novelty formats fail to captivate consumers
Figure 40: “It’s All Good,” Promotional Song, 2013
MULO sales of frozen novelties
Figure 41: MULO sales of frozen novelties at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
New product innovation down
Figure 42: Frozen treats launches, by launch type, 2010-14*
Non-dairy offerings on the rise
Figure 43: Frozen treats launches, by subcategory, 2010-14*
Vanilla, chocolate lead flavor launches, see slight decline
We all scream for…vegetables
Figure 44: Frozen treats launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-14*
Category can find inspiration from international flavors and trends
Brands from other categories enter the market with street cred
Dessert-inspired flavors hit, well, dessert
Premiumization and elimination of allergens among growing claims
Figure 45: Frozen treats launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-14*
Product names imply healthier fare
Handheld formats on the rise
Figure 46: Frozen treats launches, by format type, 2010-14*
SOCIAL MEDIA
Key points
Market overview
Key social media metrics
Figure 47: Key social media metrics, June 2014
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 48: Brand usage and awareness for selected ice cream and frozen novelty brands, April 2014
Interactions with ice cream and frozen novelty brands
Figure 49: Interactions with select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, April 2014
Leading online campaigns
Highlighting lifestyles
Flavor innovations
Apps and gaming
What we think
Online conversations
Figure 50: Online mentions for select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, by week, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
Where are people talking about ice cream and frozen novelties?
Figure 51: Online mentions for select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, by page type, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
What are people talking about?
Figure 52: Topics of conversation around selected ice cream and frozen treat brands, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
FROZEN TREAT CONSUMPTION
Key points
More than eight in 10 adults eat frozen treats
Figure 53: Frozen treat purchase (for self), personal consumption by segment, April 2014
10% of category participants eat frozen treats at least once a day
Figure 54: Consumption frequency, personal consumption by segment, April 2014
Men show greater consumption frequency
Figure 55: Consumption frequency, by gender and age, April 2014
25-34s sweet on gelato and non-dairy offerings
Figure 56: Frozen treat purchase (for self), personal consumption by age, April 2014
… particularly young men
Figure 57: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by gender and age, April 2014
Non-dairy consumers also appear more engaged in the products
Figure 58: Consumption frequency, personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
Frozen yogurt and gelato may appear as cost prohibitive
Figure 59: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by household income, April 2014
Smaller formats may appeal to single-person HHs
Figure 60: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by household size, April 2014
PURCHASE DRIVERS
Key points
Flavor big among seniors, young shoppers look for indulgence
Figure 61: Retail purchase drivers, by age, April 2014
Seniors most finicky
Figure 62: Alternate product purchase decision, by age, April 2014
Older consumers interested in low-in, younger users want more
Figure 63: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by age, April 2014
Young men open to ice cream and frozen novelty experimentation
Figure 64: Alternate product purchase decision, by gender and age, April 2014
Low earners aim to save money, higher earners want premium, health
Figure 65: Retail purchase drivers, by household income, April 2014
Daily eaters less price conscious, higher than average interest in health
Figure 66: Retail purchase drivers, personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
Figure 67: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
Gelato buyers less driven by price
Figure 68: Retail purchase drivers, by purchase by segment, April 2014
Non-dairy buyers also less interested in price, more likely to prioritize health
Figure 69: Retail purchase drivers, personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
Dairy-free buyers significantly more interested in natural and organic
Figure 70: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by purchase by segment, April 2014
ATTITUDES TOWARDS FROZEN TREATS
Key points
Quality
Nearly half of frozen treat eaters believe ice cream shops best CPG
Men may be more brand aware, but appreciate local quality
Figure 71: Attitudes toward frozen treats (quality), by gender and age, April 2014
Seniors fine with quality of freezer case offering
Figure 72: Attitudes toward frozen treats (quality), by age, April 2014
Daily frozen treat eaters twice as likely to prefer local
Figure 73: Attitudes toward frozen treats (quality), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
Occasion
More than a third of respondents eat the products away from home
Figure 74: Attitudes toward frozen treats (occasion), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
Health
Majority of respondents say frozen yogurt is healthier than ice cream
Figure 75: Attitudes toward frozen treats (health), by age, April 2014
Frozen yogurt eaters tolerant of low-in varieties
Figure 76: Attitudes toward frozen treats (health), personal consumption by segment, April 2014
…as are high-frequency eaters
Figure 77: Attitudes toward frozen treats (health), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
Price
Majority of respondents willing to spend more on quality
Seniors not sold on store brands
Figure 78: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), by age, April 2014
Lower earners not willing to spend more
Figure 79: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), by household income, April 2014
Gelato eaters will pay for quality
Figure 80: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), personal consumption by segment, April 2014
…as will non-dairy consumers
Figure 81: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
Daily eaters are generally more tolerant
Figure 82: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Gelato, non-dairy find favor among Asian consumers
Figure 83: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
Other segments appeal to higher-earning Hispanics
Figure 84: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by Hispanic origin and household income, April 2014
Hispanics appear less price conscious about frozen treats
Figure 85: Retail purchase drivers, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
Higher-earning Hispanics are particularly attuned to quality
Figure 86: Attitudes toward frozen treats, by Hispanic origin and household income, April 2014
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUP – HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN
Key points
HHs with children more likely to buy frozen treats across the board
Figure 87: Household frozen treat purchase, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Opportunity exists to grow sales to parents of kids 5 and under
Figure 88: Household frozen treat purchase, by who purchased for, April 2014
Moms stick to ice cream, dads over index in most everything else
Figure 89: Household frozen treat purchase, by gender and parents with children in household, April 2014
Parents particularly interested in a product looking healthy
Figure 90: Retail purchase drivers, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Figure 91: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by presence of children in household, April 2014
Kids-focused frozen yogurt brands may hit sweet spot
Figure 92: Attitudes toward frozen treats, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Teens eat ice cream only slightly more than once per week
Figure 93: Ice cream, November 2012-December 2013
Kids eat it slightly more often
Figure 94: Ice cream, December 2013
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Frozen treat purchase
Figure 95: Household frozen treat purchase, by age, April 2014
Figure 96: Household frozen treat purchase, by gender and age, April 2014
Figure 97: Household frozen treat purchase, by household income, April 2014
Figure 98: Household frozen treat purchase, by household size, April 2014
Consumption frequency
Figure 99: Consumption frequency, by gender, April 2014
Figure 100: Consumption frequency, by age, April 2014
Figure 101: Consumption frequency, by household income, April 2014
Figure 102: Consumption frequency, by purchase by segment, April 2014
Figure 103: Consumption frequency, by personal location, April 2014
Purchase drivers
Figure 104: Retail purchase drivers, by gender, April 2014
Figure 105: Retail purchase drivers, by gender and age, April 2014
Figure 106: Retail purchase drivers, by household size, April 2014
Figure 107: Alternate product purchase decision, by household income, April 2014
Figure 108: Alternate product purchase decision, by household size, April 2014
Figure 109: Alternate product purchase decision, by purchase by segment, April 2014
Figure 110: Alternate product purchase decision, personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
Purchase drivers (health-related)
Figure 111: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by gender and age, April 2014
Figure 112: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by personal location, April 2014
Purchase location
Figure 113: Purchase location, by gender and age, April 2014
Attitudes toward frozen treats
Figure 114: Attitudes toward frozen treats, April 2014
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA
Brand usage or awareness
Figure 115: Brand usage or awareness, April 2014
Figure 116: Ben & Jerry’s usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 117: Breyers usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 118: Magnum usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 119: Häagen-Dazs usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 120: Nestlé Drumstick usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 121: Dreyer’s usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Activities done
Figure 122: Activities done, April 2014
Figure 123: Ben & Jerry’s – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 124: Ben & Jerry’s – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 125: Ben & Jerry’s – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 126: Ben & Jerry’s – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 127: Breyers – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 128: Breyers – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 129: Breyers – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 130: Breyers – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 131: Magnum – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 132: Magnum – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 133: Magnum – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 134: Häagen-Dazs – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 135: Häagen-Dazs – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 136: Häagen-Dazs – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 137: Häagen-Dazs – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 138: Nestlé Drumstick – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 139: Nestlé Drumstick – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 140: Nestlé Drumstick – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 141: Nestlé Drumstick – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 142: Dreyer’s – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 143: Dreyer’s – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 144: Dreyer’s – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Key social media metrics
Figure 145: Key social media indicators of selected brands, June 2014
Online conversations
Figure 146: Online mentions for select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, by week, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
Figure 147: Online mentions for select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, by page type, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
Figure 148: Topics of conversation around selected ice cream and frozen treat brands, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS