Author: Mintel Group Ltd.
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Pizza - US - June 2014
Scope and Themes
 
What you need to know 
Flat sales are forecast for the US market for store-bought pizza between 2014 and 2019, as more consumers recover their spending power due to the slowly reviving economy and spend on restaurant pizza rather than frozen pizza. A majority of consumers feel that store-bought pizza is not as good as restaurant pizza, which means store-bought brands must do more to bring their product quality closer to that of restaurants to compete with pizzerias. This includes more focus on premium ingredients, side dishes, and wider flavor varieties. This report provides analysis of these factors, as well as examination of the following:

●	How store-bought brands can also emphasize convenience to compete with pizza restaurants
●	How demographics play a role in keeping the market afloat
●	Which companies lead the market, and which are providing the type of innovation that consumers demand

This report also features in-depth consumer research from an exclusive Mintel survey, which covers consumption of pizza types, store-bought pizza purchase behaviors, the importance of health-related product attributes, interest in pizza types, and attitudes toward pizza.

Definition 
For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definitions: 

This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Pizza At Retail – US, July 2013, as well as the July 2012 and January 2010 reports of the same title. For the purposes of this report, pizza at retail is covered as per the following definitions:

●	Frozen pizza 
●	Refrigerated/frozen kits, crusts, and dough 
●	Shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts 
●	Take-n-bake pizzas sold fully prepared and requiring only cooking at home

Prepared, ready-to-eat pizza sold in retail outlets is excluded from the scope of this report, as is pizza sold in foodservice outlets. 

Value figures throughout this report are at rsp (retail selling prices) excluding sales tax unless otherwise stated. 

Data sources
Sales data
●	Market Size and Forecast, Segment Performance, and Retail Channels: based on Information Resources, Inc., InfoScan Reviews; IDDBA, “What’s in Store?”; US Census Bureau, Economic Census; Progressive Grocer’s Consumer Expenditures Study/Mintel
●	Leading Companies and Brand Share: Information Resources, Inc., InfoScan Reviews

Consumer survey data
For the purposes of this report, Mintel commissioned exclusive consumer research through GMI to explore consumer consumption of/attitudes and behaviors toward pizza at retail. Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis, and reporting. Fieldwork was conducted in April 2014 among a sample of 2,000 adults aged 18+ with access to the internet.

Mintel selects survey respondents by gender, age, household income, and region so that they are proportionally representative of the US adult population using the internet. Mintel also slightly over-samples, relative to the population, respondents that are Hispanic or Black to ensure an adequate representation of these groups in our survey results and to allow for more precise parameter estimates from our reported findings. Please note that Mintel surveys are conducted online and in English only. Hispanics who are not online and/or do not speak English are not included in the survey results.

Mintel has also analyzed data from EMS (Experian Marketing Services), using the Simmons NCS (National Consumer Study) and the Simmons NHCS (National Hispanic Consumer Study).

The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS/NHCS was carried out during November 2012-December 2013 and the results are based on the sample of 23,689 adults aged 18+, with results weighted to represent the US adult population. 

While race and Hispanic origin are separate demographic characteristics, Mintel often compares them to each other. Please note that the responses for race (White, Black, Asian, Native American, or other race) will overlap those that also are Hispanic, because Hispanics can be of any race.

Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
The following abbreviations are used in this report: 

BBQ | Barbecue
BFY | Better-for-you
CDC | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
CPI | Consumer Price Index
CPK | California Pizza Kitchen
DIY | Do-it-yourself
DPI | Disposable Personal Income
EMS | Experian Marketing Services
FDA | US Food and Drug Administration
GM | General Mills
GNPD | Global New Products Database
LLC | Limited Liability Company
MULO | Multi Outlet, representative of the following channels: total US Grocery, Mass, total US Drug, total Walmart, Dollar, Military, and Club
NHCS | National Consumer Study/National Hispanic Consumer Study (Experian Marketing Services)
oz | ounce
rsp | Retail selling price
USDA | US Department of Agriculture

Generations are discussed within this report, and they are defined as: 

World War II/Swing Generations | Members of the WWII generation were born in 1932 or before and are aged 82 or older in 2014. Members of the Swing Generation were born between 1933 and 1945 and are aged 68-81 in 2014.
Baby Boomers | The generation born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, Baby Boomers are between the ages of 50 and 68.
Generation X | Born between 1977 and 1994, Millennials are aged 20-37 in 2014.
Millennials* | The generation born between 1977 and 1994. In 2014, Millennials are between the ages of 19 and 36.
iGeneration | Born between 1995 and 2007, members of iGen are aged 7-19 in 2014.
Emerging Generation | The newest generation began in 2008 as the annual number of births declined sharply with the recession. In 2014, members of this as-yet-unnamed generation are younger than 7.

* also known as Generation Y or Echo Boomers; includes the oldest members of the iGeneration, aged 18-19

In order to provide an inflation-adjusted price value for markets, Mintel uses the CPI to deflate current prices. The CPI is defined as follows: 

CPI

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The CPI and its components are typically used to adjust other economic series for price changes and to translate these series into inflation-free dollars. Examples of series adjusted by the CPI include retail sales, hourly and weekly earnings, and components of the national income and product accounts. In addition, and in Mintel reports, the CPI is used as a deflator of the value of the consumer’s dollar to find its purchasing power. The purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar measures the change in the value to the consumer of goods and services that a dollar will buy at different dates. 

The CPI is generally the best measure for adjusting payments to consumers when the intent is to allow consumers to purchase, at today’s prices, a market basket of goods and services equivalent to one that they could purchase in an earlier period. It is also the best measure to use to translate retail sales into real or inflation-free dollars.

Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definition.

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