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Long-haul Holidays - UK - March 2014

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Volume set to grow 14% over the next five years
Figure 1: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
Lower cost of entry will see value grow at a slower rate
Figure 2: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
Market factors
No-frills, long-haul airfares should increase accessibility in 2014
Fuel prices remain high but airlines are investing in more efficient planes
APD increases continue to inflate the cost of flying
Pound performs well against most key long-haul currencies
Only one ABTA member still levies a surcharge
Companies, brands and innovation
Virgin Atlantic seeks to differentiate by showcasing wearable tech
Virgin America launches in-flight social network
American Express partners with TripAdvisor
Virgin Australia introduces Bring your own device wireless in-flight entertainment
American Airlines offers bundled fare options
The consumer
Over half of adults have taken a long-haul holiday in the last five years
Figure 3: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
Full-service airlines dominate the long-haul market
Figure 4: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
High airfares are a key barrier to growth
Figure 5: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
Airline reputation and in-flight experience outweigh demand for low price
Figure 6: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
Legroom is the primary demand for long-distance flights
Figure 7: Demand for in-flight features, January 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How will no-frills, long-haul airfares impact the market?
The facts
The implications
How can airlines react to shifting consumer expectations?
The facts
The implications
TREND APPLICATION
Transumers
Guiding Choice
Mintel Futures: Generation Next
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
No-frills, long-haul airfares should increase accessibility in 2014
Fuel prices remain high but airlines are investing in more efficient planes
Figure 8: Jet fuel prices, GBP per gallon, January 2009-December 2013
APD increases continue to inflate the cost of flying
Figure 9: Air passenger duty rates, 2012-14
Pound performs well against most key long-haul currencies
Figure 10: Foreign exchange rate index, GBP against key long-haul destination currencies, 2012-14
Demand for Vietnamese Dong doubled in 2013
Figure 11: Post Office 10 fastest-growing tourist currencies, 2013
Australia and New Zealand show the highest holiday costs
Figure 12: Post Office worldwide holiday costs barometer, January 2014
Only one ABTA member still levies a surcharge
WHO'S INNOVATING?
Key points
Virgin Atlantic seeks to differentiate by showcasing wearable tech
Virgin America launches in-flight social network
American Express partners with TripAdvisor
Virgin Australia introduces BYOD wireless in-flight entertainment
American Airlines offers bundled fare options
WestJet Christmas video goes viral
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Market volume is down 19% since 2008
Figure 13: Forecast volume and value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
Volume set to grow 14% over the next five years
Figure 14: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
Lower cost to entry will see value grow at a slower rate
Figure 15: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Independent segment returned to growth in 2013
Figure 16: Independent vs. non-independent long-haul holidays, by volume, 2008-13
Long-haul flight holidays grew 2% in 2013
Figure 17: Long-haul holiday trips taken, by transport type, 2008-13
US dominance continues, but underperforms the wider market
Figure 18: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by volume, years ended 30 September 2012 and 2013
Spending in US accounts for 30% of total long-haul expenditure
Figure 19: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by value, years ended 30 September 2012 and 2013
Unrest in Thailand could dampen tourist demand
Mexico was the strongest growth destination in 2013
Figure 20: Best- and worst-performing destinations, by volume change, years ended 30 September 2012 and 2013
Egyptian tourism industry continues to suffer
India’s visa-on-arrival scheme could boost tourist interest
THE CONSUMER – LONG-HAUL HOLIDAYS TAKEN IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS
Key points
Over half of adults have taken a long-haul holiday in the last five years
Figure 21: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
All-inclusive and beach holidays are the dominant long-haul holiday types
Under-35s are a key demographic for the long-haul market
Families are also key, but the nuclear family is no longer the norm
THE CONSUMER – TRANSPORT USED ON LAST LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY
Key points
Full-service airlines dominate the long-haul market
Figure 22: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
Under-35s are key for the burgeoning low-cost, long-haul model
ABs are the most likely to have flown full-service
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS LONG-HAUL HOLIDAYS
Key points
High airfares are a key barrier to growth
Figure 23: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
Bullish attitudes support the case for a sustained recovery…
…but financial barriers will continue to impede growth
Influence of under-35s threatens to disrupt the traditional long-haul market
Outlook for the low-cost, long-haul model is mixed
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS FLYING LONG-HAUL
Key points
Airline reputation and in-flight experience outweigh demand for low price
Figure 24: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
Older people are the least likely to accept the low-cost, long-haul model
Low-cost flyers provide a solid base for new budget brands to expand
Lower earners less likely to value in-flight experience and airline reputation
THE CONSUMER – DEMAND FOR IN-FLIGHT FEATURES
Key points
Legroom is the primary demand for long-distance flights
Figure 25: Demand for in-flight features, January 2014
Entertainment provides an opportunity to integrate and differentiate
Airlines can cut costs by targeting BYOD generation
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 26: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken, by UK residents, 2013-18
Figure 27: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken, by UK residents, 2013-18
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – LONG-HAUL HOLIDAYS TAKEN IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS
Figure 28: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
Figure 29: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2014
Figure 30: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 31: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 32: Last long-haul holiday taken, by demographics, January 2014
Figure 33: Last long-haul holiday taken, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 34: Last long-haul holiday taken, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – TRANSPORT USED ON LAST LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY
Figure 35: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
Figure 36: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, by demographics, January 2014
Figure 37: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, by last long-haul holiday taken, January 2014
Figure 38: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS LONG-HAUL HOLIDAYS
Figure 39: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
Figure 40: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2014
Figure 41: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 42: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
Figure 43: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 44: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 45: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
Figure 46: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 47: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
Figure 48: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014 (continued)
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS FLYING LONG-HAUL
Figure 49: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
Figure 50: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by demographics, January 2014
Figure 51: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 52: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
Figure 53: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, by attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
Figure 54: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, by attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014 (continued)
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – DEMAND FOR IN-FLIGHT FEATURES
Figure 55: Demand for in-flight features, January 2014
Figure 56: Demand for in-flight features, by demographics, January 2014
Figure 57: Demand for in-flight features, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 58: Demand for in-flight features, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
Figure 59: Demand for in-flight features, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 60: Demand for in-flight features, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 61: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by demand for in-flight features, January 2014
Figure 62: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by demand for in-flight features, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 63: Demand for in-flight features, by attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
Figure 64: Demand for in-flight features, by attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014 (continued)
Figure 65: Demand for in-flight features, by transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014

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