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Airlines - UK - July 2013

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Slow growth pattern likely to continue
Figure 1: Volume forecast of total passengers uplifted at UK airports, 2008-18
Budget shift
Market factors
Spain and France remain favourite destinations
Figure 2: Most popular overseas travel destinations for UK residents, 2012
Domestic air losing out to rail
Figure 3: Passenger traffic, by UK airport, 2012
Short-term pressure easing but long-term hikes likely
Figure 4: Kerosene-type jet fuel monthly average spot price and US$:£ monthly average spot exchange rate, January 2007-March 2013
Companies, brands and innovation
easyJet grows through recession
Figure 5: Top ten UK-based airlines, by passengers uplifted globally, 2012
Expansion plans
Flexible flying
Domestic long-haul
New pricing models
The consumer
Half of consumers fly on holiday
Figure 6: Purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, April 2013
Two thirds of flyers go once or twice a year
Figure 7: Number of times flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Six in ten fly low-cost
Figure 8: Destination regions, types of airline and classes of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Price must be right but flyers over 45 look beyond the fare
Figure 9: Important factors in choosing an airline, April 2013
Upgrades, seating choice and free flights top loyalty incentives
Figure 10: Likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, April 2013
Low appetite for low-cost, long-haul
Figure 11: Length of time people are prepared to spend travelling by budget airline, April 2013
Consumers critical of hidden charges
Figure 12: Agreement with attitudes towards air travel, April 2013
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How can airlines respond in an era of high costs?
Is the UK falling out of love with budget airlines?
How can airlines best target the increasingly important over-55 population?
What is the best response to green ‘flying guilt’?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Edutainment
Trend: Secret Secret
Mintel Futures: Access Anything, Anywhere
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Outbound travel stays flat
Figure 13: Visits abroad by UK residents, 2007-12
Figure 14: Overseas journeys (all purposes), by region, 2007-12
Figure 15: Most popular overseas travel destinations for UK residents, 2007-12
Air travel holds market share but tunnel competition grows
Figure 16: All overseas visits by air, sea and tunnel – volume, 2007-12
Figure 17: Percentage share of all overseas visits, by travel mode, 2007-12
Rise of domestic rail
Figure 18: Main method of transport used for overnight trips in Great Britain, 2010-12
Stansted aims to reverse decline under new ownership
Figure 19: Passengers uplifted, by airport, 2007-12
Airports Commission considering options
Taxing affairs
Figure 20: Air Passenger Duty, April 2013
Oil prices ease but long-term trends likely to be upwards
Figure 21: Kerosene-type jet fuel monthly average spot price and US$:£ monthly average spot exchange rate, January 2007-March 2013
Airport charging regime set to improve
Ancillary revenue champs
Stealth charges risk reputation damage
Carbon trading awaits global solution
Sterling weakness adds to airline pressures
Figure 22: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against other currencies, 2008-13
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Weighty matters
Upgrade auctions
Variable pricing
Knowing me, knowing you
Frills and no-frills
Flying flirts
High-speed internet in the skies
Sustainable meals
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Air travel showing slight pick-up
Figure 23: Passengers uplifted at UK airports, 2007-12
Long-term slowdown in growth rates
Forecast
Figure 24: Volume forecast of total passengers uplifted at UK airports, 2008-18
Figure 25: Volume forecast of international passengers uplifted at UK airports, 2008-18
Figure 26: Volume forecast of domestic passengers uplifted at UK airports, 2008-18
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
VFR flights showing strongest recovery
Figure 27: Volume of UK residents’ air trips abroad, by purpose, 2007-12
Figure 28: Volume of UK residents’ air trips abroad, by purpose, % breakdown, 2007-12
Charter flight share shows five years of decline
Figure 29: Passengers uplifted at UK airports, scheduled vs. non-scheduled flights, 2007-12
Low-cost volumes up 56% in past five years
Figure 30: Total passengers uplifted worldwide by UK airlines, low-cost* and full-service**, 2007-12
MARKET SHARE
Key points
easyJet shows 68% global growth since 2007
Figure 31: Top ten UK-based airlines, by passengers uplifted globally, 2007-12
BA bounce-back
Jet2 jets ahead
Ryanair UK passenger decline
Low-cost expansion planes
Figure 32: Number of active aircraft, by airline, 2011 and 2012
Dreams finally come true for long-haul
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Ryanair
Figure 33: Key financials for Ryanair, 2012 and 2013
easyJet
Figure 34: Key financials for easyJet Plc, 2011 and 2012
British Airways
Figure 35: Key financials for IAG – British Airways (British Airways), 2011 and 2012
Thomson Airways
Figure 36: Key financials for TUI PLC, 2011 and 2012
Thomas Cook Airlines
Figure 37: Key financials for Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK & Ireland, India and Middle East segment, 2011 and 2012
Flybe
Figure 38: Key financials for Flybe, 2012 and 2013
Monarch Airlines
Figure 39: Key financials for Monarch Holding ltd, 2011 and 2012
Virgin Atlantic
Figure 40: Key financials for Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd, 2011 and 2012
Jet2.com
Figure 41: Key financials for Dart Group PLC (Jet Group), 2011 and 2012
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 42: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the airlines sector, April 2013
Correspondence analysis
Brand attitudes
Figure 43: Attitudes, by airlines brand, April 2013
Brand personality
Figure 44: Airlines brand personality – macro image, April 2013
Figure 45: Airlines brand personality – micro image, April 2013
Brand experience
Figure 46: Airlines brand usage, April 2013
Figure 47: Satisfaction with various airlines brands, April 2013
Figure 48: Consideration of airlines brands, April 2013
Figure 49: Consumer perceptions of current airlines brand performance, April 2013
Figure 50: Airlines brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, April 2013
Brand index
Figure 51: Airlines brand index, April 2013
Figure 52: Airlines brand index vs. recommendation, April 2013
Target group analysis
Figure 53: Target groups, April 2013
Figure 54: Airlines brand usage, by target groups, April 2013
Group One – Conformists
Group Two – Simply the Best
Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
Group Five – Individualists
WHO FLIES AND WHY?
Key points
Just over half of adults fly
Figure 55: Purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, April 2013
VFR Londoners
FREQUENCY OF FLYING
Key points
Two thirds of flyers take one or two annual trips
Figure 56: Number of times flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
‘Three-plus’ flyer profile
Figure 57: Number of times flown in the last 12 months, by purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, April 2013
TYPE OF FLIGHTS TAKEN
Key points
Flyers over 55 favour long-haul
Figure 58: Destination regions, types of airline and classes of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Budget vs full-service demographics
One in 20 flyers travel first/business class
IMPORTANT INFLUENCES ON AIRLINE CHOICE
Key points
Price dominates for all but secondary factors key for over-45s
Figure 59: Important factors in choosing an airline, April 2013
Frequent flyer factors
Figure 60: Important factors in choosing an airline, all flyers versus those who took four or more flights, April 2013
Long-haul far less commoditised
Business flyers look for more eco-efficient airlines
POTENTIAL AIRLINE LOYALTY INCENTIVES
Key points
Figure 61: Likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, April 2013
Seating, upgrades and free flights most popular incentives
Red carpet treatment for frequent flyers
Figure 62: Likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, all flyers versus those who took four or more flights, April 2013
HOW LONG ARE TRAVELLERS PREPARED TO SPEND ON A BUDGET FLIGHT?
Key points
Budget flight tolerance falls off rapidly after four hours
Figure 63: Length of time people are prepared to spend travelling by budget airline, April 2013
ATTITUDES TOWARDS FLYING
Key points
Public scepticism over budget pricing
Figure 64: Attitudes towards air travel, April 2013
Low-cost enthusiasts
Tasting luxury
Frequent flyers are most disgruntled
Flying back into the past
Family flyers put off by rising fares
Flying smart
TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
Figure 65: Airline target groups, April 2013
High Maintenance
Demographic profile
Marketing message
Annual Aviators
Demographic profile
Marketing message
Budget Babes
Demographic profile
Marketing message
Fed Up Of Flying
Demographic profile
Marketing message
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 66: Forecasts for total passengers uplifted at UK airports, 2013-18
Figure 67: Forecasts for international passengers uplifted at UK airports, 2013-18
Figure 68: Forecasts for domestic passengers uplifted at UK airports, 2013-18
APPENDIX – BRAND RESEARCH
Figure 69: Brand usage, April 2013
Figure 70: Brand commitment, April 2013
Figure 71: Brand momentum, April 2013
Figure 72: Brand diversity, April 2013
Figure 73: Brand satisfaction, April 2013
Figure 74: Brand recommendation, April 2013
Figure 75: Brand attitude, April 2013
Figure 76: Brand image – macro image, April 2013
Figure 77: Brand image – micro image, April 2013
Figure 78: Profile of target groups, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 79: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, April 2013
Figure 80: Brand usage, by target groups, April 2013
Brand index
Figure 81: Brand index, April 2013
APPENDIX – WHO FLIES AND WHY?
Figure 82: Purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2013
APPENDIX – FREQUENCY OF FLYING
Figure 83: Number of times flown in the last 12 months, by purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, April 2013
Figure 84: Number of times flown in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2013
APPENDIX – TYPE OF FLIGHTS TAKEN
Figure 85: Destination regions, types of airline and classes of travel flown in the last 12 months, by number of times flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 86: Destination regions, types of airline and classes of travel flown in the last 12 months, by purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, April 2013
Figure 87: Destination regions of travel flown in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 88: Types of airline of travel flown in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 89: Classes of travel flown in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2013
APPENDIX – IMPORTANT INFLUENCES ON AIRLINE CHOICE
Figure 90: Important factors in choosing an airline, by destination regions of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 91: Important factors in choosing an airline, by types of airline of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 92: Important factors in choosing an airline, by classes of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 93: Important factors in choosing an airline, by number of times flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 94: Important factors in choosing an airline, by purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, April 2013
Figure 95: Most popular important factors in choosing an airline, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 96: Next most popular important factors in choosing an airline, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 97: Other important factors in choosing an airline, by demographics, April 2013
APPENDIX – POTENTIAL AIRLINE LOYALTY INCENTIVES
Figure 98: Likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, by destination regions of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 99: Likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, by types of airline of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 100: Likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, by classes of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 101: Likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, by number of times flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 102: Likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, by purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, April 2013
Figure 103: Most popular likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 104: Next most popular likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 105: Other likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, by demographics, April 2013
APPENDIX – HOW LONG ARE TRAVELLERS PREPARED TO SPEND ON A BUDGET FLIGHT?
Figure 106: Most popular length of time people are prepared to spend travelling by budget airline, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 107: Next most popular length of time people are prepared to spend travelling by budget airline, by demographics, April 2013
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS FLYING
Figure 108: Agreement with attitudes towards air travel, by destination regions of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 109: Agreement with attitudes towards air travel, by types of airline of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 110: Agreement with attitudes towards air travel, by classes of travel flown in the last 12 months, April 2013
Figure 111: Agreement with attitudes towards air travel, by purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, April 2013
Figure 112: Agreement with attitudes towards flying, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 113: Further agreement with attitudes towards flying, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 114: Agreement with other attitudes towards flying, by demographics, April 2013
APPENDIX – TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Figure 115: Purpose of flights taken over the past 12 months, by target groups, April 2013
Figure 116: Number of times flown in the last 12 months, by target groups, April 2013
Figure 117: Destination regions, types of airline and classes of travel flown in the last 12 months, by target groups, April 2013
Figure 118: Important factors in choosing an airline, by target groups, April 2013
Figure 119: Likely incentives for choosing a particular airline regularly, by target groups, April 2013
Figure 120: Length of time people are prepared to spend travelling by budget airline, by target groups, April 2013
Figure 121: Attitudes towards air travel (any agree), by target groups, April 2013
Figure 122: Target groups, by demographics, April 2013

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