Frozen Snacks - US - May 2013

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Total U.S. retail sales of frozen snacks hit $4.5 billion in 2012
Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2007-17
Market segmentation
Frozen handheld entrées lead category sales
Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of frozen snacks, by segment, at current prices, 2010 and 2012
Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of frozen snacks, by segment percentage, at current prices, 2012
Leading companies
Top three category leaders post sales declines, lose share
Figure 4: MULO sales of frozen snacks, by top five leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Retail channels
“Other” channels supplant supermarkets to top category sales
Figure 5: Total U.S. retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2010-12
Innovation
Product innovation soars in 2012
Figure 6: Frozen snack launches, by launch type, 2008-12
Figure 7: Frozen snack launches, by top five claims, 2008-12
The consumer
Category popular among young consumers
Figure 8: Frozen snack purchase for self, by age, February 2013
Category use for meals/snacks points to need for format expansion
Figure 9: frozen snack consumption occasions, by age, February 2013
Lunch appears as popular consumption occasion
Figure 10: Top five frozen snack consumption occasions, February 2013
Important attributes a mixed bag
Figure 11: Top five important attributes, February 2013
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How can frozen snacks overcome a poor health perception?
How can the category expand snacking on the go?
How can frozen snacks grow appeal among older consumers?
How can retailers attract consumers to the frozen snack aisle?
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: The Nouveau Poor
Trend: Transumers
Mintel Futures: Old Gold
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Total U.S. retail sales of frozen snacks hit $4.5 billion in 2012
Category aligns with consumer habits and needs
Segments, brands, and retail outlets share and shuffle category dominance
Continued growth is forecast, industry needs to boost health innovation
Sales and forecast of frozen snacks
Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 13: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Fan chart forecast
Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2007-17
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Increases in snacking trends good for snack categories
Figure 15: Attitudes/opinions about food, July 2007-August 2012
Figure 16: Food, by age, April 2011-June 2012
Frozen food industry promotes a fresh take on the category
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Other CPG offerings
Consumers drawn to fresh food offerings
Rise in prepared/grab-and-go food offerings at retail challenge category
Foodservice
Snack offerings on restaurant menus can inform direction of frozen products
Figure 17: Top 20 appetizers on restaurant menus, Q1 2010-Q1 2013
Category can combat desire for homemade snacks
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Frozen handheld entrées lead category sales
Sales of frozen snacks, by segment
Figure 18: Total U.S. retail sales of frozen snacks, by segment, at current prices, 2010 and 2012
Sales of frozen handheld entrées
Figure 19: U.S. retail sales and forecast of frozen handheld entrées, at current prices, 2007-17
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – FROZEN APPETIZERS/SNACK ROLLS
Key points
Frozen appetizer/snack roll sales grow 23% from 2007-12
Sales of frozen appetizers/snack rolls
Figure 20: U.S. retail sales and forecast of frozen appetizers/snack rolls, at current prices, 2007-17
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – FROZEN PRETZELS
Key points
Frozen pretzel sales grow 16% from 2007-12 to reach $72 million
Figure 21: The Monte Cristo SuperPretzel
Sales of frozen pretzels
Figure 22: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of frozen pretzels, at current prices, 2007-17
RETAIL CHANNELS
“Other” channels leapfrog supermarkets to best category sales
Sales of frozen snacks, by channel
Figure 23: Total U.S. retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2010-12
Supermarket sales of frozen snacks
Figure 24: U.S. supermarket sales of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2007-12
Drug store sales of frozen snacks
Figure 25: U.S. drug store sales of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2007-12
“Other” channel sales of frozen snacks
Figure 26: U.S. sales of frozen snacks, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2007-12
RETAIL CHANNELS – NATURAL SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Natural channel sales grow 29% from 2010-12, future growth challenged
Sales of frozen snacks in the natural channel
Figure 27: Natural supermarket sales of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2010-12*
Figure 28: Natural supermarket sales of frozen snacks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12*
Natural channel sales of snacks by segment
Figure 29: Natural supermarket sales of frozen meals, by segment, 2010 and 2012*
Brands of note and innovators
Natural channel sales of frozen snacks by organic
Figure 30: Natural supermarket sales of snacks, by organic, 2010 and 2012*
Natural channel sales of snacks by gluten free
Figure 31: Natural supermarket sales of frozen snacks, by gluten free, 2010 and 2012*
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Top three category leaders post sales declines, lose share
Figure 32: Frozen snack launches, by top 10 companies, 2008-12
Room exists for strategic private label growth
Figure 33: Frozen snack launches, by private label, 2008-12
Manufacturer sales of frozen snacks
Figure 34: MULO sales of frozen snacks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – FROZEN HANDHELD ENTRÉES
Key points
Nestlé maintains large lead in the frozen handheld segment
El Monterey finds success in premium positioning, on-trend sales mix
State Fair innovation leads to sales growth for the brand
Brand recognition helps some brands grow
Heinz frozen handheld sales decline by nearly one quarter
Leading companies' MULO sales of frozen handheld entrées
Figure 35: MULO sales of frozen handheld entrées, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – FROZEN APPETIZERS/SNACK ROLLS
Key points
General Mills and Heinz brands battle it out for top segment spot
T.G.I. Friday’s benefits from familiarity, may struggle with health
Bagel Bites aims for stronger health perception
Figure 36: Bagel Bites website, April 2013
Ethnic-inspired offerings in tune with consumer needs
Nestlé posts largest sales declines among leading brands
Appetizers/snack rolls segment represents best shot for store brand success
Leading companies' MULO sales of frozen appetizers/snack rolls
Figure 37: MULO sales of frozen appetizers/snack rolls, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – FROZEN PRETZELS
Key points
Frozen pretzel sales belong to SuperPretzel
Leading companies' MULO sales of frozen pretzels
Figure 38: MULO sales of frozen pretzels, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Product innovation soars in 2012
Figure 39: Frozen snack launches, by launch type, 2008-12
Figure 40: Frozen snack launches, by top 10 claims, 2008-12
Increasing the health profile of frozen snacks takes many forms
From low calorie…
…and all natural…
…to whole grain, gluten free, and vegetarian
Format/flavor innovations follow food trends
Popularity of burgers and sliders at foodservice spills into retail
Frozen snacks offer full meal flavors in just one bite
Ethnic-inspired offerings on-trend, expand consumer base
Brands from other categories offer familiarity/legitimacy
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of brand landscape
Brand analysis: Hot Pockets
Figure 41: Brand analysis of Hot Pockets, 2013
Online initiatives
Figure 42: Hot Pockets Website, 2013
Figure 43: Hot Pockets Facebook Post, 2013
TV presence
Figure 44: Hot Pockets TV ad, “Hot Agreement,” 2012
Figure 45: Hot Pockets TV ad, “Snack For Real,” 2012
Print and other
Figure 46: “Pocket Like It’s Hot” YouTube Video, 2012
Brand analysis: Tyson Any’tizers
Figure 47: Brand analysis of Tyson Any’tizers, 2013
Online initiatives
Figure 48: Facebook Post, 2013
TV presence
Figure 49: Tyson Any’tizers TV ad, “Party Snacks,” 2012
Print and other
Figure 50: Facebook Post, 2013
Brand analysis: Lean Cuisine
Figure 51: Brand analysis of Lean Cuisine, 2013
Online initiatives
Figure 52: Facebook Post, 2013
Figure 53: Lean Cuisine Pinterest, 2013
TV presence
Figure 54: Lean Cuisine TV ad, “Must Have Accessory,” 2012
Print and other
Figure 55: Delicious Rewards Page, 2013
Figure 56: Facebook Post, 2013
Brand analysis: Totino’s
Figure 57: Brand analysis of Totino’s, 2013
Online initiatives
Figure 58: Facebook Post, 2013
Figure 59: Totino’s E-card, 2013
TV presence
Figure 60: Totino’s Pizza Rolls TV ad, “Kenny’s Dodge,” 2012
Figure 61: Totino’s Pizza Rolls TV ad, “Mr. Monday,” 2012
Print and other
Figure 62: Totino’s Website, 2013
Figure 63: Mom Up! Video, 2013
SOCIAL MEDIA – FROZEN SNACKS
Key points
 KEY SOCIAL MEDIA METRICS
Figure 64: Key brand metrics, frozen snacks brands, April 2013
Market overview
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 65: Usage and awareness of selected frozen snacks brands, February 2013
Interaction with brands
Figure 66: Interaction with selected frozen snacks brands, February 2013
Online conversations
Figure 67: Selected Totino’s tweets, April 20, 2013
Figure 68: Percentage of consumer conversation by selected frozen snacks, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
Figure 69: Online mentions, selected frozen snacks, by week, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
Where are people talking about frozen snacks brands?
Figure 70: Mentions by page type, selected frozen snacks, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
What are people talking about online?
Figure 71: Mentions, by type of conversation, selected frozen snacks, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
Figure 72: Major areas of discussion surrounding frozen snacks brands, percentage of daily mentions, by week, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
Figure 73: Major areas of discussion surrounding frozen snacks brands, by page type, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
 BRAND ANALYSIS
Hot Pockets
Figure 74: Hot Pockets key social media indicators, April 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Totino’s
Figure 75: Totino’s key social media indicators, April 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Bagel Bites
Figure 76: Ore-Ida key social media indicators, April 2013
What we think
Lean Pockets
Figure 77: Lean Pockets key social media indicators, April 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
T.G.I. Friday’s Freezer
Figure 78: T.G.I. Friday’s key social media indicators, April 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
El Monterey
Figure 79: El Monterey key social media indicators, April 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
FROZEN SNACK PURCHASE
Key points
Some 82% of households purchase frozen snacks
Figure 80: Frozen snack purchase, by gender, February 2013
Men appear as strong target for frozen snack sales
Figure 81: Frozen snack purchase, by gender, February 2013
Figure 82: Frozen snack purchase for self, by gender, February 2013
Higher health profile may broaden interest in frozen snacks
Figure 83: Reasons for not purchasing frozen snacks, February 2013
Category popular among young consumers
Figure 84: Frozen snack purchase for self, by age, February 2013
Handheld entrées appear as most affordable frozen snack option
Figure 85: Frozen snack purchase, by household income, February 2013
Figure 86: Frozen snack purchase for self, by household income, February 2013
Handheld items popular among single-person households
Figure 87: Frozen snack purchase, by household size, February 2013
CONSUMPTION OCCASION
Key points
Category use for meals/snacks points to need for format expansion
Lunch appears as popular consumption occasion
Room exists for more on-the-go and breakfast snack options
Figure 88: Jimmy Dean Pancakes & Sausage Bites
Figure 89: Frozen snack consumption occasion, by gender, February 2013
Women willing to pay more for convenient health positioning
Figure 90: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by gender, February 2013
Figure 91: Frozen snack calories, by gender, February 2013
Older consumers use products for entertaining at home…
Figure 92: Frozen snack consumption occasion, by age, February 2013
…while young shoppers like them for on-the-go convenience
Figure 93: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by age, February 2013
Frozen snacks appear as affordable meal replacements
Figure 94: Frozen snack consumption occasion, by household income, February 2013
Figure 95: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by household income, February 2013
Frozen sandwiches are popular throughout the day
Figure 96: Frozen snack consumption occasion, by frozen snack purchase, February 2013
Figure 97: Frozen snack consumption occasion, by frozen snack consumption, February 2013
ATTITUDES TOWARD FROZEN SNACKS
Key points
Attitudes toward frozen snacks can inform marketing messaging
Women appear more price and health conscious than men
Figure 98: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by gender, February 2013
Older consumers could use a helping hand; focus on affordability
Figure 99: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by age, February 2013
Focus on flavor and health to grow interest among high-income HHs
Figure 100: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by household income, February 2013
Attitudes differ across preferred snack types
Figure 101: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by frozen snack consumption, February 2013
Figure 102: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by frozen snack consumption, February 2013
IMPORTANT ATTRIBUTES
Key points
Important attributes a mixed bag
Men drawn to convenience and meat, women to health
Figure 103: Important attributes, by gender, February 2013
Low-in claims resonate more with older consumers
Figure 104: Important attributes, by age, February 2013
Price most important for respondents from lower-income households
Figure 105: Important attributes, by household income, February 2013
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Black and Hispanic consumers over index in frozen snack purchase
Figure 106: Frozen snack purchase, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2013
Figure 107: frozen snack purchase for self, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2013
Consumers follow what they know
Figure 108: Frozen snack purchase for self, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2013
Hispanic consumers most likely to turn to the category for meal replacements
Figure 109: Frozen snack consumption occasion, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2013
Lower-calorie options may attract Hispanic consumers
Figure 110: Frozen snack calories, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2013
Price is a strong driver among Hispanic consumers
Figure 111: Important attributes, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2013
Hispanic consumers may be drawn to product innovation
Figure 112: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2013
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUP – HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN
Key points
Frozen snacks more popular with households with children
Figure 113: Frozen snack purchase, by presence of children in household, February 2013
Older kids are stronger driver of purchase than younger
Figure 114: Frozen snack purchase, by parents with children and age, February 2013
Figure 115: Frozen hot snacks, by age, April 2011-June 2012
Developing products to meet the needs of younger kids may help future growth…
Teens play a strong role in brand choice
Figure 116: Frozen hot snacks, April 2011-June 2012
Consumers with children more interested in product attributes
Figure 117: Important attributes, by presence of children in household, February 2013
Figure 118: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by presence of children in household, February 2013
IRI/BUILDERS – KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
Frozen snacks—Key household purchase measures
Overview of frozen snacks
 FROZEN APPETIZERS/SNACK ROLLS
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen appetizers/snack rolls
Brand map
Figure 119: Brand map, selected brands of frozen appetizers/snack rolls, by household penetration, 2012*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 120: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen appetizers/snack rolls, by household penetration, 2012*
 FROZEN PRETZELS
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen pretzels
Brand map
Figure 121: Brand map, selected brands of frozen pretzels buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 122: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen pretzels, by household penetration, 2012*
APPENDIX – FOOD AND DRINK MARKET DRIVERS
Consumer confidence
Figure 123: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
Unemployment
Figure 124: U.S. Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
Figure 125: U.S. Unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
Figure 126: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
Food cost pressures
Figure 127: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011 through 2013, March 25, 2013
Obesity
Figure 128: U.S. Obesity, by age group, 2008 and 2012
Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
Figure 129: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
Racial, ethnic population growth
Figure 130: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
Figure 131: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
Shifting U.S. demographics
Figure 132: Population, by age, 2008-18
Figure 133: Households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Frozen snack purchase
Figure 134: Frozen snack purchase, by gender and age, February 2013
Figure 135: Frozen snack purchase for self, by gender and age, February 2013
Consumption occasion
Figure 136: Frozen snack consumption occasion, by gender and age, February 2013
Figure 137: Frozen snack consumption occasion, by household size, February 2013
Calories
Figure 138: Frozen snack calories, by gender and age, February 2013
Important attributes
Figure 139: Important attributes, February 2013
Figure 140: Important attributes, by gender and age, February 2013
Figure 141: Important attributes, by household size, February 2013
Figure 142: Important attributes, by frozen snack consumption, February 2013
Attitudes toward frozen snacks
Figure 143: Attitudes toward frozen snacks, by gender and age, February 2013
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA
Usage and awareness
Figure 144: Brand usage or awareness, February 2013
Figure 145: Hot Pockets usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 146: Totino’s usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 147: El Monterey usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 148: Lean Pockets usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 149: T.G.I. Friday’s Freezer usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 150: Bagel Bites usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2013
Activities done
Figure 151: Activities done, February 2013
Figure 152: Hot Pockets—Activities done, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 153: Totino’s—Activities done, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 154: El Monterey – Activities done, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 155: Lean pockets – Activities done, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 156: T.G.I. Friday’s Freezer – Activities done, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 157: Bagel Bites—Activities done, by demographics, February 2013
Figure 158: Percentage of consumer conversation by selected frozen snacks, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
Figure 159: Online mentions, selected frozen snacks, by day, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
Figure 160: Mentions by page type, selected frozen snacks, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
Figure 161: Mentions by type of conversation, selected frozen snacks, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
Figure 162: Major areas of discussion surrounding frozen snacks brands, percentage of daily mentions, by day, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
Figure 163: Major areas of discussion surrounding frozen snacks brands, by page type, Jan. 22-April 21, 2013
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS