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Lotteries - UK - March 2013

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: UK lottery sales, 2007/08-2017/18
Products and prices push up growth
Market drivers
Lottery operators still rushing to the shops
Regulatory issues creating opportunity and uncertainty
Market segmentation
Figure 2: Lottery game sales, by segment, 2011/12
Lotto’s lead cut back, while scratchcards set pace for growth
No health scare for National Lottery
The consumer
Figure 3: Lottery games played, January 2013
Lotto the nation’s favourite
Corner shops and supermarkets carry on dominating sales
Figure 4: Attitudes towards lottery draw game play, January 2013
Older and less affluent look for a better chance
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Has the Health Lottery damaged other games?
What will be the impact of the £2 Lotto ticket?
Which is more important: Jackpots or winning?
Do consumers care about the causes lotteries support?
Why do lotteries trail other gambling sectors online?
Is the lottery sector’s ‘year of mobile’ anywhere in sight?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Moral Brands
Trend: FSTR and HYPR
Mintel Futures: Old Gold
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Court backs Health Lottery – but distributions to come under review
Operators ramp up retail
Figure 5: Minimum required number* of outlets with draw facilities, by year of National Lottery licence, 2009-21
Extra draws creating more options for impulse play
Figure 6: Frequency of playing Lotto, 2010-12
Two-pronged approach to Lotto prize structure
Figure 7: Changes to National Lottery Lotto prize structure, autumn 2013
Corner shop culture keeps technology in its niche
Figure 8: Household/personal ownership of consumer technology products, July and September 2012
Sales defy downturn – but retail recession poses risk
Figure 9: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, January 1988-2012
Draw games not an instant win with the young
Figure 10: Participation in gambling activities in the past year, by age, 2010
Lotteries give back – but only the bare minimum
Figure 11: Lottery returns to good causes, 2011/12
Addiction less of a problem for lottery gamblers
Figure 12: Prevalence of problem gamblers (% of those gambling on an activity in the past year), 2010
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Healthy competition?
Football places a bet
Results become routine
Social media shares jackpot dreams
Barcodes cut the queues
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
New draws and price rises combine to drive sustained growth
Figure 13: UK lottery sales, 2007/08-2017/18
 FORECAST
Figure 14: Forecast of UK lottery ticket sales, 2007/08-2017/18
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Instant wins point to long-term future online
Figure 15: National Lottery sales, by sector, 2006/07-2011/12
EuroMillions the growth product in draws
Figure 16: Sales of draw-based National Lottery games, by game (year ending 31 March), 2006/07-2011/12
MARKET SHARE
Key points
No Health scares for National Lottery
Figure 17: Operator shares of UK lottery sales, 2006/07-2011/12
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Key points
Camelot Group
Figure 18: Camelot’s financial performance, year ending 31 March 2006/07-2011/12
Health Lottery ELM Limited
Postcode Lottery Limited
Figure 19: Postcode Lottery Limited financial performance, year ending 31 December 2010 and 2011
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Health Lottery arrives online, on TV and through letterboxes
Figure 20: Trends in lotteries’ main media advertising expenditure, by channel, 2007/08-2011/12
TV creative pushes to limits
LOTTERY GAME PLAY
Key points
The several ages of man’s lottery play
Figure 21: Lottery games played, January 2013
Better off can afford a flutter
Figure 22: Lottery games played, by household income, January 2013
First choice? It (still) has to be Lotto
Figure 23: Lottery games played, by number of lottery games played, January 2013
REGULAR LOTTERY GAME PLAY
Key points
Players take Euro break from Lotto routine
Figure 24: Frequency of lottery game play, January 2013
Societies succeed in getting older people to commit
Figure 25: Lottery games played, by frequency and age, January 2013
Scratching the surface of cross-selling to draw players
Figure 26: Levels of regular scratchcard play among regular Lotto and EuroMillions players, January 2013
LOTTERY DRAW SALES CHANNELS
Key points
Players struggle to think outside the shops
Figure 27: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, January 2013
Older players keep it local, but younger ones stay offline too
Figure 28: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, by age, January 2013
Is mobile really more convenient than the convenience store?
Figure 29: Purchasing lottery draw tickets by mobile phone, by other methods of purchasing, January 2013
LOTTERY DRAW PLAYING HABITS
Key points
Man the hunter, woman the gatherer
Figure 30: Lottery draw playing habits, January 2013
Can mobile save young players a trip?
Figure 31: Making a specific trip to buy lottery draw tickets, by age, January 2013
Show me more than the money
Figure 32: Purchasing of lottery tickets after seeing an advertisement for the draw, by lottery games played, January 2013
Loyalty lives online
Figure 33: Lottery draw ticket-buying habits, by method of purchasing, January 2013
ATTITUDES TOWARDS LOTTERY DRAW GAMES
Key points
Lower earners giving up on jackpot dream
Figure 34: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, January 2013
Could loyalty points make lottery prizes?
Figure 35: Interest in choosing the good causes lotteries support, by cards held, January 2013
‘Everyone’s a winner’ – a differentiated approach
Figure 36: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, by preference for better chances of winning, January 2013
Wallpaper gamblers need to refocus
Figure 37: Attitudes towards lottery draw games among established and habitual players, January 2013
A BETTER CHANCE VS A BIGGER JACKPOT – CHAID ANALYSIS
Methodology
Little and often: A pension plan for players and charities alike
Figure 38: Lotteries – CHAID – Tree output, March 2013
Figure 39: Lotteries – CHAID – Table output, March 2013
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 40: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2012/13-2017/18
APPENDIX – LOTTERY GAME PLAY
Figure 41: Lottery games played, by demographics, January 2013
Figure 42: Lottery games played, by other lottery games played, January 2013
APPENDIX – REGULAR LOTTERY GAME PLAY
Figure 43: Regular lottery game play (weekly or more often), by demographics, January 2013
Figure 44: Regular lottery game play (weekly or more often), by regular play of other lottery games, January 2013
APPENDIX – LOTTERY DRAW SALES CHANNELS
Figure 45: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, by demographics, January 2013
Figure 46: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, by most popular methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, January 2013
Figure 47: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, by lottery games played, January 2013
Figure 48: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets among regular lottery game players, January 2013
Figure 49: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, by number of methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, January 2013
APPENDIX – LOTTERY DRAW PLAYING HABITS
Figure 50: Lottery draw playing habits, by demographics, January 2013
Figure 51: Lottery draw playing habits, by lottery games played, January 2013
Figure 52: Lottery draw playing habits among regular lottery game players, January 2013
Figure 53: Lottery draw playing habits, by methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, January 2013
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS LOTTERY DRAW GAMES
Figure 54: Most popular attitudes towards lottery draw games, by demographics, January 2013
Figure 55: Next most popular attitudes towards lottery draw games, by demographics, January 2013
Figure 56: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, by most popular attitudes towards lottery draw games, January 2013
Figure 57: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, by next most popular attitudes towards lottery draw games, January 2013
Figure 58: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, by lottery games played, January 2013
Figure 59: Attitudes towards lottery draw games among regular lottery game players, January 2013
Figure 60: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, by methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, January 2013
Figure 61: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, by lottery playing habits, January 2013

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