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Package vs Independent Holidays - UK - February 2013

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Volume forecast of overseas package holidays, 2007-17
Figure 2: Volume forecast of overseas independent holidays, 2007-17
Package penetration rises
Short-haul beach package makes comeback
Market factors
Costa lot less
Figure 3: Holiday resort costs*, 2013
Consumer protection widened
Companies, brands and innovation
Differentiated TUI makes the running
Figure 4: Passengers licensed to the top ten UK ATOL licensed travel companies, January 2012 and January 2013
The consumer
Figure 5: Types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
Package priorities more focused on facilities
Figure 6: Important holiday factors, November 2012
Big brands seen as reliable
Figure 7: Attitudes towards package holidays, November 2012
Uniformity and inflexibility seen as main package weaknesses
Consumers are 63% pro all-inclusive/37% anti all-inclusive
Figure 8: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, November 2012
Value for money versus authenticity
Figure 9: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, November 2012
Flexibility and choice seen as main strengths of independent travel
Figure 10: Attitudes towards independent holidays, November 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
What are the current prospects for the family package holiday?
How can the traditional package holiday re-shape itself to appeal to a 21st century independent travel mind-set?
What is the potential market for independent holiday booking via the travel trade?
What are the prospects for a resurgence of package holidays to the North Africa region in 2013?
With package holiday booking moving increasingly online what are the prospects for the high street shop?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Prepare for the Worst
Trend: Accentuate The Negative
2015 trend: Old Gold
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Trade reports booking rise
Figure 11: Domestic (GB) and overseas holidays volume, 2007-12
Spending has shifted to domestic market
Figure 12: Domestic (GB) and overseas holidays expenditure, 2007-12
Figure 13: Average spend per holiday, domestic (GB), overseas and all holidays, 2007-12
Spain and Sri Lanka have cheapest resort living costs
Figure 14: holiday resort living costs*, 2012 vs 2013
Fewer closures point to more stable industry
Figure 15: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, 2012
Protection increase
All-inclusive accounts for half of ‘big two’ package sales
How inclusive is all-inclusive?
How responsible is all-inclusive?
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Package a la carte
Child-free packages
Sport-inclusive
65-day package
Tech makeover
Dream stays alive despite hitches
Dynamic long-haul
New rail options for independent traveller
Lifestyle all-inclusive
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Packages hold steady at four in ten overseas trips
Figure 16: Volume of overseas package and independent holidays, 2007-17
Figure 17: Expenditure* on overseas package and independent holidays, 2007-17
Figure 18: Average expenditure* on overseas package and independent holidays 2007-12
2013 and beyond
Forecast
Figure 19: Volume forecast of overseas package holidays, 2007-17
Figure 20: Volume forecast of overseas independent holidays, 2007-17
Figure 21: Value* forecast of overseas package holidays, 2007-17
Figure 22: Value* forecast of overseas independent holidays, 2007-17
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Short-haul package revival
Figure 23: Overseas package and independent holidays by region, 2007-12
Package market goes back to its roots
Figure 24: Top package holiday destinations by number of visits, 2007-12
APD delivers rum punch
Tunisia recovering faster than Egypt
Brand USA pays off
Figure 25: Top independent holiday destinations by number of visits, 2007-12
Family troubles
Figure 26: Package holiday volumes, by age, 2007, 2009 and 2011*
Figure 27: Independent holiday volumes, by age, 2007, 2009 and 2011*
Shorter and sweeter
Figure 28: Package holiday volume, by holiday duration, 2007, 2009 and 2011*
Figure 29: independent holiday volume, by holiday duration, 2007, 2009 and 2011*
MARKET SHARE
Key points
TUI raises capacity for 2013
Figure 30: Passengers licensed to UK travel companies, January 2013 and January 2012
Travel Republic enters the rankings
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Half of package holidaymakers still book offline
Figure 31: Booking methods used for last holiday abroad, package vs independent holidays July 2012
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
TUI Travel
Figure 32: TUI Travel Plc UK and Ireland key financials, 2010-11
Thomas Cook Group
Figure 33: Thomas Cook Group – UK segment key financials, 2011-12
Monarch Travel Group
Figure 34: Avro Limited, key financials, 2010-11
Figure 35: Cosmos Holidays Limited, key financials, 2010-11
Travel Republic
Figure 36: Travel Republic Limited, key financials, 2010-11
Jet2Holidays
Figure 37: Jet2holidays Limited, key financials, 2010-11
Expedia UK
Figure 38: Expedia.com UK Limited, key financials, 2010-11
Hays Travel
Figure 39: Hays Travel Limited, key financials, 2010-11
Virgin Holidays
Figure 40: Virgin Holidays Limited and subsidiary companies, key financials, 2011-12
Trailfinders
Figure 41: Trailfinders Limited, key financials, 2011-12
On the Beach
Figure 42: On the Beach Limited, Key financials, 2010-11
HOLIDAY TAKING
Key points
Package taking increase
Figure 43: Types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, April 2011-November 2012
WHAT MAKES A GOOD HOLIDAY?
Key points
Sunshine and good food are top holiday priorities
Figure 44: Important holiday factors, November 2012
Package versus independent holiday priorities
Figure 45: Important holiday factors by package vs independent holidays abroad, November 2012
Priorities by demographic
ATTITUDES TOWARDS PACKAGE HOLIDAYS
Key points
Uncertain climate has helped big brands
Figure 46: Attitudes towards package holidays, November 2012
Same old, same old
Getting personal
Two thirds of package holidaymakers value safety
Package extras
ALL-INCLUSIVE HOLIDAY TAKING
Key points
Half of consumers have been all-inclusive
Figure 47: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, November 2012
ATTITUDES TOWARDS ALL-INCLUSIVE HOLIDAYS
Key points
Value perception is strong
Figure 48: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, November 2012
Security valued most by younger and older travellers
Lack of destination depth
ATTITUDES TOWARDS INDEPENDENT HOLIDAYS
Key points
Self-reliant, self-confident travellers
Figure 49: Attitudes towards independent holidays, November 2012
Pockets of concern
Women, families and under-35s have biggest independent travel concerns
2013 HOLIDAY INTENTIONS
All-inclusive intentions trump other package plans
Figure 50: Holiday intentions for 2013, November 2012
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 51: Forecasts for overseas package holidays volume, 2012-17
Figure 52: Forecasts for overseas independent holidays volume, 2012-17
Figure 53: Forecasts for overseas package holidays value, 2012-17
Figure 54: Forecasts for overseas independent holidays value, 2012-17
APPENDIX – HOLIDAY TAKING
Figure 55: Most popular types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 56: Next most popular types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 57: Other types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – WHAT MAKES A GOOD HOLIDAY?
Figure 58: Important holiday factors, by types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
Figure 59: Most important holiday factors, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 60: Next most important holiday factors, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 61: Other important holiday factors, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS PACKAGE HOLIDAYS
Figure 62: Attitudes towards package holidays, by type of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
Figure 63: Attitudes towards package holidays, by most important holiday factors, November 2012
Figure 64: Attitudes towards package holidays, by next most important holiday factors, November 2012
Figure 65: Attitudes towards package holidays, by other important holiday factors, November 2012
Figure 66: Agreement with most popular statements on package holidays, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 67: Agreement with next most popular statements on package holidays, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 68: Agreement with other statements on package holidays, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – ALL-INCLUSIVE HOLIDAY TAKING
Figure 69: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, by most important holiday factors, November 2012
Figure 70: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, by next most important holiday factors, November 2012
Figure 71: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, by other important holiday factors, November 2012
Figure 72: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS ALL-INCLUSIVE HOLIDAYS
Figure 73: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
Figure 74: Most popular attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 75: Next most popular attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 76: Other attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS INDEPENDENT HOLIDAYS
Figure 77: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
Figure 78: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by most important holiday factors, November 2012
Figure 79: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by next most important holiday factors, November 2012
Figure 80: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by other important holiday factors, November 2012
Figure 81: Agreement with most popular statements about independent holidays, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 82: Agreement with next most popular statements about independent holidays, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 83: Agreement with other statements about independent holidays, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – 2013 HOLIDAY INTENTIONS
Figure 84: Most popular holiday intentions for 2013, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 85: Next most popular holiday intentions for 2013, by demographics, November 2012

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