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Holiday Review - UK - January 2013

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Estimated overseas holiday market volume, 2007-17
Figure 2: Estimated domestic holiday market volume, 2007-17
Market factors
Consumer awareness of ATOL protection set to improve in 2013
Holidaymakers fail to take advantage of favourable exchange rates
Figure 3: Average monthly midpoint exchange rates for GBP against key currencies, by % change, 2008-12
Tourist expenditure abroad posts signs of recovery
Figure 4: Seasonally adjusted UK tourist expenditure abroad vs. total household final consumption expenditure, 2002-12
High aviation fuel prices dampen demand for long-haul holidays
Figure 5: Index of jet fuel prices, USD per gallon, January 2009-November 2012
High petrol prices fail to dissuade domestic holidaymakers from driving
Figure 6: Index of UK petrol prices, UK pence per litre, January 2009-November 2012
Market share
easyJet and BA consolidate market share at the top of the table
Figure 7: Passengers uplifted, by top ten UK airlines, 2011 and 2012
Passengers licensed by Thomas Cook fell 18% year on year
Figure 8: Passengers licensed under ATOL protection, by top ten ATOL holders, 2011 and 2012
The consumer
A quarter of adults did not go on holiday in 2012
Figure 9: Type of holidays taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
Beach, family and city break holidays continue to dominate
Figure 10: Type of holidays taken in the past five years and last holiday taken, November 2012
Online booking method dominates across every holiday type
Figure 11: Booking method used, November 2012
More than half of consumers view holidays as a necessary spend
Figure 12: Attitudes towards holidays, November 2012
A third of consumers have cut back on the number of holidays they take
Figure 13: Effects of the poor economic climate, November 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Will the impact of unrest in the Middle East and North Africa continue into 2013?
Will economic growth in 2013 see a reversal of the trend towards domestic holidays?
How can the industry adapt to the rise of smartphone and tablet devices?
How do environmental concerns affect holidaymaker decision-making?
TREND APPLICATION
Greenfluencers
Prepare for the Worst
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Consumer awareness of ATOL protection set to improve in 2013
Extension of Flight Plus ATOL to cover UK airlines a possibility in 2013
Holidaymakers fail to take advantage of favourable exchange rates
Figure 14: Average monthly midpoint exchange rates for GBP against key currencies, by % change, 2008-12
Tourist expenditure abroad posts signs of recovery
Figure 15: Seasonally adjusted UK tourist expenditure abroad vs. total household final consumption expenditure, 2002-12
High aviation fuel prices dampen demand for long-haul holidays
Figure 16: Index of jet fuel prices, USD per gallon, January 2009-November 2012
High petrol prices fail to dissuade domestic holidaymakers from driving
Figure 17: Index of UK petrol prices, UK pence per litre, January 2009-November 2012
No major operator failures in 2012
Figure 18: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, December 2011-November 2012
Internet dominates as a research source for holiday booking
Figure 19: Sources used to get information for all holidays and short breaks, 2010 and 2012
WHO'S INNOVATING?
Key points
Air New Zealand seeks to cash in on The Hobbit movie release
TripAdvisor launches partnership with ethical micro-lending website Kiva
Virgin Atlantic and British Airways offer mobile boarding passes
Princess Cruises unveils new fitness facilities
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Total holiday market value to increase to £38.2 billion in 2017
Figure 20: Estimated total holiday market volume and value, 2007-17
Figure 21: Estimated total holiday market value, 2007-17
Figure 22: Estimated total holiday market volume, 2007-17
Recovery in the overseas market unlikely
Figure 23: Estimated overseas holiday market volume and value, 2007-17
Figure 24: Estimated overseas holiday market volume, 2007-17
Figure 25: Estimated overseas holiday market value, 2007-17
Domestic market value growth to outpace volume growth
Figure 26: Estimated domestic holiday market volume and value, 2007-17
Figure 27: Estimated domestic holiday market volume, 2007-17
Figure 28: Estimated domestic holiday market value, 2007-17
Forecast methodology
Fan chart explanation
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
2011 upturn in overseas package segment partly nullified in 2012
Figure 29: Volume of overseas holidays, by holiday type, 2007-12
Figure 30: Volume of overseas holidays, by holiday type, 2007-12
Greece replaces Portugal as fourth most popular overseas destination
Figure 31: Top 20 overseas holiday destinations, by volume, 2011 and 2012
Greece attracts 183,000 extra trips
Figure 32: Top ten best-performing overseas holiday destinations, by volume change, 2011 and 2012
Holidays to Thailand increase by 18%
Figure 33: Top ten best-performing overseas holiday destinations, by volume % change, 2011 and 2012
Turkey sees decline of over a third of a million trips
Figure 34: Top ten worst-performing overseas holiday destinations, by volume change, 2011 and 2012
Egypt suffers a 37% decline in number of trips
Figure 35: Top ten worst-performing overseas holiday destinations, by volume % change, 2011 and 2012
The Hobbit trilogy to restore tourist interest in New Zealand
Domestic holiday expenditure per trip dwarfed by overseas
Figure 36: Average spend per trip, overseas holidays, 2007-12
Figure 37: Average spend per trip, domestic (GB) holidays, 2007-12
Sea transport usage falls 12% and Tunnel usage increases 9%
Figure 38: Volume of overseas holidays, by transport used, 2007-12
Figure 39: Volume of overseas holidays, by transport used, 2007-12
Organised coach tour domestic holidays increase by 45%
Figure 40: Volume of domestic (GB) holidays, by transport used, 2007-11
MARKET SHARE
Key points
easyJet and BA consolidate market share at the top of the table
Figure 41: Passengers uplifted, by top ten UK airlines, 2011 and 2012
Passengers licensed by Thomas Cook fell 18% year on year
Figure 42: Passengers licensed under ATOL protection, by top ten ATOL holders, 2011 and 2012
HOLIDAYS TAKEN IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Key points
A quarter of adults did not go on holiday in 2012
Figure 43: Type of holidays taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
Package holidays favoured by younger demographics
Figure 44: Type of holidays taken in the past 12 months, by age, November 2012
Figure 45: Other types of holidays taken in the past 12 months, by age, November 2012
Package holidays to Europe popular across socio-economic groups
Figure 46: Type of holidays taken in the past 12 months, by socio-economic group, November 2012
Figure 47: Other types of holidays taken in the past 12 months, by socio-economic group, November 2012
HOLIDAYS TAKEN IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS
Key points
Beach, family and city break holidays continue to dominate
Figure 48: Type of holidays taken in the past five years and last holiday taken, November 2012
City breaks favoured by the middle-aged demographic
Figure 49: Top five types of holidays taken in the past five years, by age, November 2012
Cruise and coach tour holiday taking led by over-65s
Figure 50: Multi-destination, cruise and coach tour holidays taken in the past five years, by age, November 2012
BOOKING METHOD USED
Key points
Online booking method dominates across every holiday type
Figure 51: Booking method used, November 2012
ONLINE BOOKING METHODS USED
Key points
Booking using a mobile device remains low
Figure 52: Online booking methods used, November 2012
Online bookers still seek human interaction
Figure 53: Online booking methods used, by type of holidays taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOLIDAYS
Key points
More than half of consumers view holidays as a necessary spend
Figure 54: Attitudes towards holidays, November 2012
Environmental concerns highest among 25-34s
Figure 55: Ethical and environmental attitudes towards holidays, by age, November 2012
Domestic holidays viewed as unattractive by younger consumers
Figure 56: Attitudes towards domestic holidays, by age, November 2012
EFFECTS OF THE POOR ECONOMIC CLIMATE
Key points
A third of consumers have cut back on the number of holidays they take
Figure 57: Effects of the poor economic climate, November 2012
Over-65s largely unaffected by economic climate
Figure 58: Effects of the poor economic climate, by age, November 2012
PLANNED HOLIDAYS IN 2013
Key points
A third of consumers are planning a domestic holiday in 2013
Figure 59: Planned holidays in 2013, November 2012
2013 domestic market to be driven by older demographics
Figure 60: Planned holidays in 2013, by age, November 2012
Poor economic climate to fuel domestic sector
Figure 61: Planned holidays in 2013, by effects of the poor economic climate, November 2012
The domestic holiday market needs to retain its good value image
Figure 62: Planned holidays in 2013, by selected attitudes towards holidays, November 2012
TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
Target groups
Figure 63: Holiday target groups, November 2012
Ethical Abstainers
Demographic profile
Marketing message
Entitled Sun Seekers
Demographic profile
Marketing message
Bargain Hunters
Demographic profile
Marketing message
Neutral Observers
Demographic profile
APPENDIX – HOLIDAYS TAKEN IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Figure 64: Most popular type of holidays taken in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 65: Next most popular type of holidays taken in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – HOLIDAYS TAKEN IN THE PAST 5 YEARS
Figure 66: Most popular type of holidays taken in the past 5 years, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 67: Next most popular type of holidays taken in the past 5 years, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 68: Other type of holidays taken in the past 5 years, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 69: Most popular type of last holidays taken, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 70: Next most popular type of last holidays taken, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – BOOKING METHOD USED
Figure 71: Booking method used for beach holiday, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 72: Booking method used for family holiday, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 73: Booking method used for city break, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 74: Booking method used for break for a wedding/stag or hen do, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 75: Booking method used for multi-destination holiday (touring, backpacking etc), by demographics, November 2012
Figure 76: Booking method used for all-inclusive holiday, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 77: Booking method used for holiday staying in a second home (yours, a friend’s or a relative’s), by demographics, November 2012
Figure 78: Booking method used for rural/countryside-based holiday, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 79: Booking method used for theme park holiday, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 80: Booking method used for cultural/historical sightseeing holiday, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 81: Booking method used for camping/caravan park holiday, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – ONLINE BOOKING METHODS USED
Figure 82: Other booking methods used, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 83: Other booking methods used, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOLIDAYS
Figure 84: Agreement with the statements ‘Holidays are a necessary spend’ and ‘Holidays in the UK aren’t real holidays’, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 85: Agreement with the statements ‘On holiday I don’t want to think about ethical or environmental issues’ and ‘I feel guilty about the environmental impact of travelling’, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 86: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer overseas holidays to holidays in the UK’ and ‘Holidays are a luxury’, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 87: Agreement with the statements ‘Authenticity is important on holiday’ and ‘Going on holiday is my right’, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 88: Agreement with the statements ‘Green’ taxes should be levied on travelling’ and ‘UK holidays are better value than overseas holidays’, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 89: Agreement with the statements ‘I always spend more money on holiday than I intend to’ and ‘It’s important to get a sunny break every year’, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – EFFECTS OF THE POOR ECONOMIC CLIMATE
Figure 90: Most common effects of the poor economic climate, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 91: Next most popular effects of the poor economic climate, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 92: Other effects of the poor economic climate, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – PLANNED HOLIDAYS IN 2013
Figure 93: Most popular planned holidays in 2013, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 94: Next most popular planned holidays in 2013, by demographics, November 2012
APPENDIX – TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Figure 95: Target groups, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 96: Attitudes towards holidays, by target groups, November 2012
Figure 97: Type of holidays taken in the past 12 months, by target groups , November 2012
Figure 98: Type of holidays taken in the past 5 years, by target groups , November 2012
Figure 99: Effects of the poor economic climate, by target groups , November 2012
Figure 100: Planned holidays in 2013, by target groups , November 2012

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