Clothing Retailing - UK - October 2012

INTRODUCTION
Changes to our UK report
Data sources
Financial definitions
VAT
Sales per store, sales per sq m
Other
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Clothing specialists’ sales (£m, incl. VAT), 2007-17
Market factors
Companies, brands and innovation
Figure 2: Top ten clothing retailers’ shares of consumer spending on clothing and footwear, 2010 and 2011
The consumer
Figure 3: Main shops used for clothing in the last 12 months, instore or online, July 2012
Figure 4: How consumers made their most recent clothing purchase, July 2012
Figure 5: Consumer attitudes to clothes shopping, July 2012
Figure 6: Customer satisfaction levels with factors impacting on fashion purchasing, July 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How vulnerable is clothing retail to external factors?
What’s happening to the mid-market?
How does social media figure in the customer journey?
What are the category-extension opportunities?
In a multichannel world, what’s the value of a store?
TREND APPLICATION
Inspire trend: Secret, Secret
Inspire trend: Let’s make a deal
2015 trend: Access Anything, Anywhere
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT
Key points
Double-dip recession
Figure 7: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2009-Q2 2012
Consumer expenditure
Figure 8: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
Deflation wiped out by pay freezes
Figure 9: Year-on-year growth in consumer prices and average earnings, Sep-2011/June 2012
Consumer confidence at a low ebb
Figure 10: UK consumer confidence, Sep 2011-Sep 2012
Unseasonal weather brings forward summer sales
Figure 11: Rainfall (1981-2010) anomalies for 2012
Under-25s now beginning to feel the pinch
Figure 12: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
What does this mean for clothing shops future prospects?
CONSUMER SPENDING ON CLOTHING
Key points
Spending breakdown
Figure 13: UK: Forecast breakdown of consumer spending on clothing, 2012
Figure 14: UK: Breakdown of consumer spending on clothing and personal adornment, (incl VAT), 2007-12
SECTOR SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Recent performance
Performance in 2012
Forecast to 2017
Figure 15: Clothing specialists’ sales (£m, incl. VAT), 2007-17
Figure 16: Clothing specialists’ sales (£m, incl. VAT), at current and constant prices, 2007-17
Share of all retail
Figure 17: Clothing specialists’ share of all retail sales (excl. automotive fuel), 2007-12
The Mintel forecast
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 18: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the clothing retail sector, July 2012
Brand attitudes
Figure 19: Attitudes by clothing retail brand, July 2012
Brand personality
Figure 20: Clothing retail brand personality – macro image, July 2012
Figure 21: Clothing retail brand personality – micro image, July 2012
Brand experience
Figure 22: Clothing retail brand usage, July 2012
Figure 23: Satisfaction with various clothing retail brands, July 2012
Figure 24: Consideration of clothing retail brands, July 2012
Figure 25: Consumer perceptions of current clothing retail brand performance, July 2012
Figure 26: Clothing retail brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, July 2012
Brand index
Figure 27: Clothing retail brand index, July 2012
Figure 28: Clothing retail brand index vs. recommendation, July 2012
Target group analysis
Figure 29: Target groups, July 2012
Figure 30: Clothing retail brand usage, by target groups, July 2012
Group One – Conformists
Group Two – Simply the Best
Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
Group Five – Individualists
THE CONSUMER – RETAIL CUSTOMER PROFILE COMPARISON
Gender
Figure 31: Customer profile, by gender, September 2012
Age
Figure 32: Customer profile, by age, September 2012
Socio-economic group
Figure 33: Customer profile, by socio-economic group, September 2012
Region
Figure 34: Customer profile, by region, September 2012
State of finances
Figure 35: Customer profile, by state of finances, September 2012
THE CONSUMER – WHERE THEY SHOP
Key points
What we asked
Where consumers buy
Figure 36: Where they buy, July 2012
Why shops are chosen
Changes in shop usage, 2011-12
Figure 37: Main shops used for clothing, 2011 and 2012
Where consumers buy – offline/online split
Figure 38: UK: where they buy, in-store and online, July 2012
Who shops where
Figure 39: Profile of in-store Clothing shoppers, July 2012
Primark vs TopShop
Older customers
Online customers
Figure 40: Profile of online customers, July 2012
Consumer profiles
Financial health
Figure 41: Retail customer bases by financial health, Sept 2012
Regional bias
Figure 42: Leading clothing retailers, financial health and regional bias, September 2012
THE CONSUMER – HOW THEY SHOP
Figure 43: How consumers made their most recent clothing purchase, July 2012
Figure 44: Ratio of in-store to online buyers, July 2012
Profiles of shoppers by how they shop
Figure 45: Profile of shoppers for womens outerwear, by how they shop, July 2012
Figure 46: Profile of shoppers for womens underwear by how they shop, July 2012
Figure 47: Profile of shoppers for childrenswear, by how they shop, July 2012
THE CONSUMER – CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
Key points
Figure 48: Satisfaction levels with factors impacting on fashion purchasing, July 2012
Figure 49: Satisfaction levels with factors impacting on fashion purchasing, July 2012
Figure 50: Satisfaction levels with factors impacting on fashion purchasing, July 2012
Satisfaction by retailer used
Size
Figure 51: Satisfaction with sizing, by retailer relative to the average, July 2012
Quality
Figure 52: Satisfaction with product quality, by retailer relative to the average, July 2012
Value for money
Figure 53: Satisfaction with Value for money, by retailer relative to the average, July 2012
Browsing
Figure 54: Satisfaction with ease of browsing, by retailer relative to the average, July 2012
Promotions
Figure 55: Satisfaction with promotional offers, by retailer relative to the average, July 2012
Brands
Figure 56: Satisfaction with brands available, by retailer relative to the average, July 2012
Display
Figure 57: Satisfaction with product display, by retailer relative to the average, July 2012
Style
Figure 58: Satisfaction with product styling, by retailer relative to the average, July 2012
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TO CLOTHES SHOPPING
Key points
What we asked
The weather really matters
Major sporting events have far less impact
Figure 59: Consumer attitudes to clothes shopping, July 2012
Gender differences
Figure 60: Consumer attitudes to clothes shopping, by gender, July 2012
The young act quickly
Figure 61: Consumer attitudes to clothes shopping, by age, July 2012
Who shops when the weather is bad?
Figure 62: Those who often visit their local shopping centre when the weather is bad, by socio-economic group, July 2012
The Burton shopper’s mentality
Figure 63: Burton shopper attitudes, July 2012
Fashion followers exhibit similar patterns of behaviour
Figure 64: Consumer attitudes, by select young fashion retailer, July 2012
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Multidimensional in-store experience
Figure 65: Urban Outfitters flagship oxford street, London, 3-D art installation, 2012
M&S TV app
Figure 66: M&S TV App, 2012
Virtual reality experience that mirrors real-life
Figure 67: C-Instore Virtual Fashion Mirror, 2012
Personal clothes shopping service for disabled shoppers
Developing the multichannel retail strategy
Figure 68: Marks & Spencer Cheshire Oaks Store, 2012
iPad point of sale
Clothing on wheels
Figure 69: Green Street Vault, 2012
Cash-for-clothing shops thriving in recessionary times
Shwopping
Clothes that bridge the gap between the physical and the digital
A well-stocked bricks-and-mortar offering
Rewarding mobile-connective shoppers who visit physical clothing shops
CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION
The online/offline split
Figure 70: UK: Estimated distribution of spending on clothing, by online/offline sales, 2010-12
By retail sector
Figure 71: Estimated distribution of spending on clothing, 2009-11
SPACE ALLOCATION SUMMARY
Key points
Figure 72: Space allocation for men’s, women’s and childrenswear, September 2012
Space allocations: Detailed estimates
Figure 73: Space allocation estimates, M&S, Next, Zara, Debenhams, Primark, H&M, September 2012
Figure 74: Space allocation estimates: TK Maxx, Matalan, Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, New Look, September 2012
Figure 75: Space allocation estimates: Womenswear specialists, September 2012
Figure 76: Menswear specialists, September 2012
RETAIL PRODUCT MIX
Clothing retailers: estimated sales breakdown
Figure 77: Estimated sales breakdown, M&S, Next, Debenhams, Primark, TK Maxx, New Look, 2011/12
Figure 78: Estimated sales breakdown, Matalan, Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Zara, H&M, 2011/12
Arcadia chains
Figure 79: Arcadia chains: Estimated sales breakdown, 2011/12
Sales density
Figure 80: Major clothing retailers, sales densities by product, 2011
Figure 81: Major clothing retailers, sales densities by product, 2011 ctd
Market shares by product
Figure 82: Clothing and footwear estimated market size (excl VAT), 2011
Figure 83: Major clothing retailers: estimated market share by product, 2011
Figure 84: Major clothing retailers: estimated market share by product, 2011 Ctd
THE RETAILERS: FINANCIALS AND OUTLETS
Key points
Introduction
Value fashion: New Look falters
Mid-market: M&S struggles
Fast-fashion: Inditex soars
Others: EWM surprises
Figure 85: Leading 25 clothing specialists, ranked by 2010 revenues (excl. VAT), 2007-11
Figure 86: Leading 25 clothing specialists’ revenues: compound annual growth rates, 2007-11
Outlets and sales per outlet
Figure 87: Leading 25 clothing specialists’ outlet numbers, 2007-11
Figure 88: Leading 25 clothing specialists’ sales per outlet, 2007-11
Figure 89: Leading 25 clothing specialists’ sales per outlet: compound annual growth rates, 2007-11
Sales area and sales densities
Figure 90: Selected leading clothing specialists’ total sales area and average store size, 2007-11
Figure 91: Selected leading clothing specialists’ total sales area: Compound annual growth rates, 2007-11
Figure 92: Selected leading clothing specialists’ sales per sq m, 2007-11
Figure 93: Selected leading clothing specialists’ sales per sq m: compound annual growth rates, 2007-11
Operating profits and margins
Figure 94: Selected leading clothing specialists’ operating profits, 2007-11
Figure 95: Selected leading clothing specialists’ operating margins, 2007-11
MARKET SHARES
In brief: the top ten
Figure 96: Top ten clothing retailers’ shares of consumer spending on clothing and footwear, 2010 and 2011
In detail: the top 20
Figure 97: Top 20 clothing retailers’ shares of consumer spending on clothing and footwear, 2009-11
ONLINE
Key points
 THE ONLINE MARKET
Online clothing sales
Figure 98: UK: Estimated online sales of clothing (incl. VAT), 2007-12
Leading retailers’ online revenues and online market shares
Figure 99: Major clothing retailers’ estimated online clothing sales and share of all online clothing spending (excl VAT), 2011
Profiling leading retailers’ online visitors
Figure 100: Leading clothing retailers: Composition of unique visitors to websites, by age, three month average to August 2012
Figure 101: Leading clothing retailers: Composition of unique visitors to websites, by sex, three month average to August 2012
Figure 102: Leading clothing retailers: Composition of unique visitors to websites, by social grade, three month average to August 2012
Leading sites by visitor numbers
Figure 103: Leading clothing-retail/department store websites, by total unique visitors, three month average to Aug 2012
The consumer: shopping online by category
Figure 104: UK: What has been bought online in the last 12 months, leading categories, May 2012
The consumer: shopping online by device
Figure 105: UK: Percentage of consumers having shopped online (for any goods) in the last three months, July 2012
 SOCIAL MEDIA
The consumer: social media usage
Figure 106: UK: Social media websites visited, April 2012
Figure 107: UK: Social media sites used for making contact with or sharing thoughts on clothing brands or designers, April 2012
Figure 108: UK: Use of social media for fashion, when feeling positively or negatively about a brand, April 2012
The consumer: usage of Facebook and Twitter
Figure 109: Usage of Facebook and Twitter for making contact with or sharing thoughts on clothing brands or designers, by age group and sex, April 2012
Figure 110: UK: Use of Facebook for fashion, April 2012
Figure 111: UK: Use of Twitter for fashion, April 2012
Retailers’ social media innovations
Social media follower numbers
Figure 112: UK: Leading clothing retailers’ social media follower numbers, October 2012
RETAIL ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Key points
Advertising spend continues upward trend
Figure 113: Main media advertising spend, by leading clothing retailers, 2008-11
The press and TV are the most favoured advertising medium
Figure 114: Percentage breakdown of leading clothing retailers’ advertising spend, by media type, 2011
What we have seen in 2012
ARCADIA GROUP
What we think
A mixed picture
Fashion brands: winners – and losers?
BHS: finally on the path to recovery?
Company background
Company performance
Figure 115: Arcadia Group: Group financial performance, 2006/7-2010/11
Figure 116: Arcadia Group: Outlet data, 2006/7-2010/11
Retail offering
ASDA
What we think
George, a pioneer in food retailer fashion
New stores, less space
So appeal must grow
Company background
Company performance
Figure 117: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2006/7-2010/11
Figure 118: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2006/7-2010/11
Retail offering
DEBENHAMS
What we think
Getting it right
Improving the offer
Loosening the purse-strings
Company background
Company performance
Figure 119: Debenhams: Group financial performance, 2006/7-2010/11
Figure 120: Debenhams: Outlet data, 2006/7-2010/11
Retail offering
Figure 121: Debenhams: Breakdown of sales by brand type, 2010/11
Figure 122: Debenhams: Breakdown of own-bought product sales by category, 2010/11
EDINBURGH WOOLLEN MILL
What we think
Figure 123: Edinburgh Woollen Mill: Estimated customer base of retail businesses, 2012
A major challenge
Company background
Company performance
Figure 124: The Edinburgh Woollen Mill Ltd: Group financial performance, 2006/7-2010/11
Figure 125: The Edinburgh Woollen Mill Ltd: Outlet data, 2006/7-2010/11
Figure 126: The Edinburgh Woollen Mill Group: estimated pro-forma sales and outlets, 2011/12
Retail offering
H&M
What we think
Still room to grow
Compelling offer
Online improving
Company background
Company performance
Figure 127: H&M Hennes & Mauritz: Group financial performance, 2006/7-2010/11
Figure 128: H&M Hennes & Mauritz: Outlet data, 2006/7-2010/11
Retail offering
HOUSE OF FRASER
What we think
Premium positioning paying off
Multi-channel key for growth
New Houseoffraser.com concept stores
Focus on House Brand development
Company background
Company performance
Figure 129: House of Fraser Plc: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
Figure 130: House of Fraser Plc: Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
Retail offering
GRUPO INDITEX
What we think
Where next?
Company background
Company performance
Figure 131: Grupo Inditex: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
Figure 132: Grupo Inditex: Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
Retail offering
JOHN LEWIS
What we think
Company background
Company performance
Figure 133: John Lewis Plc: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
Figure 134: John Lewis Plc: Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
Retail offering
MARKS & SPENCER
What we think
Changing customer profile
Figure 135: M&S: Customer profile by age and socio-economic group, July 2012
Food vs clothing
Where next?
Personalities
Company background
Company performance
Figure 136: Marks & Spencer: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
Figure 137: Marks & Spencer: Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
Retail offering
MATALAN
What we think
Keeping focus on value
Expansion to tap into new regions
Looking to multichannel to revive growth
Company background
Company performance
Figure 138: Matalan Ltd: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
Figure 139: Matalan Ltd: Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
Retail offering
NEW LOOK
What we think
McGeorge yet to make mark
Multichannel coming to fore
2012 hopeful despite poor weather
Online and international for the long term
Company background
Company performance
Figure 140: New Look Group Plc: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
Figure 141: New Look Group Plc: Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
Retail offering
NEXT GROUP
What we think
Online-offline
Larger stores
Doubts
Company background
Figure 142: Next Group: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
Figure 143: Next Group: Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
Retail offering
PRIMARK GROUP
What we think
Management handover
No online
ABF connection
Company background
Company performance
Figure 144: Primark/Penneys: Group financial performance, 2006/7-2011/12
Figure 145: Primark/Penneys: Outlet data, 2006/7-2011/12
Retail offering
RIVER ISLAND
What we think
No direction?
Looking to accessories…
…and overseas
Company background
Company performance
Figure 146: River Island Clothing Co Ltd: Group financial performance, 2006/7-2010/11
Figure 147: River Island Clothing Co Ltd: Outlet data, 2006/7-2010/11
Retail offering
TESCO
What we think
Company background
Company performance
Figure 148: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
Figure 149: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
Retail offering
T.K. MAXX
What we think
Keeping focus on value
Pursuing further expansion in Europe
Company background
Company performance
Figure 150: TJX Europe (TK Maxx): Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
Figure 151: TJX Europe (TK Maxx): Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
Retail offering
APPENDIX – BRAND RESEARCH
Figure 152: Brand usage, July 2012
Figure 153: Brand commitment, July 2012
Figure 154: Brand commitment, July 2012 (continued)
Figure 155: Brand momentum, July 2012
Figure 156: Brand momentum, July 2012 (continued)
Figure 157: Brand diversity, July 2012
Figure 158: Brand diversity, July 2012 (continued)
Figure 159: Brand satisfaction, July 2012
Figure 160: Brand satisfaction, July 2012 (continued)
Figure 161: Brand recommendation, July 2012
Figure 162: Brand recommendation, July 2012 (continued)
Figure 163: Brand attitude, July 2012
Figure 164: Brand attitude, July 2012 (continued)
Figure 165: Brand image – Macro Image, July 2012
Figure 166: Brand image – Macro Image, July 2012 (continued)
Figure 167: Brand image – Micro Image, July 2012
Figure 168: Brand image – Micro Image, July 2012 (consumer)
Figure 169: Profile of target groups, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 170: Psychographic segmentation, by Target groups, July 2012
Figure 171: Brand usage, by Target groups, July 2012
Brand index
Figure 172: Brand index, July 2012
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER: WHERE THEY SHOP
Figure 173: Most popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, instore and online, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 174: Next most popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, instore and online, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 175: Other clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, instore and online, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 176: Popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, instore and online, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 177: Least popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, instore and online, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 178: Most popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, instore, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 179: Next most popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, instore, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 180: Other clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, instore, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 181: Least popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, instore, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 182: Most popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, online, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 183: Next most popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, online, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 184: Other clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, online, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 185: Least popular clothing retailers purchased from in the last 12 months, online, by demographics, July 2012
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER: HOW THEY SHOP
Figure 186: How consumers purchased women's wear, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 187: How consumers purchased women’s outerwear, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 188: How consumers purchased women’s underwear, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 189: How consumers purchased menswear, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 190: How consumers purchased men’s outerwear, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 191: How consumers purchased men’s underwear, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 192: How consumers purchased kids’ wear, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 193: How consumers purchased childrenswear, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 194: How consumers purchased babywear, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 195: How consumers purchased fashion accessories, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 196: How consumers purchased footwear, by demographics, July 2012
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER: CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
Figure 197: Satisfaction levels with availability of product in my size, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 198: Satisfaction levels with product quality, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 199: Satisfaction levels with value for money, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 200: Satisfaction levels with ease of browsing, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 201: Satisfaction levels with promotional offers, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 202: Satisfaction levels with brands available, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 203: Satisfaction levels with way products are displayed, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 204: Satisfaction levels with style of products available, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 205: Satisfaction levels with staff advice, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 206: Satisfaction levels with changing rooms, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 207: Satisfaction levels with queuing at the till, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 208: Satisfaction levels with store tidiness, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 209: Satisfaction levels with online customer service, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 210: Satisfaction levels with online delivery, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 211: Satisfaction levels with online style advice, by demographics, July 2012
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER: ATTITUDES TO CLOTHES SHOPPING
Figure 212: Most popular consumer attitudes towards clothes shopping, by demographics, July 2012
Figure 213: Next most popular consumer attitudes towards clothes shopping, by demographics, July 2012