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Bread - US - September 2012

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Sales growth remains flat after 2008 spike
Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, in millions at current prices, 2007-12
Fan chart forecast
Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of bread, at current prices, 2007-17
Fresh loaf bread remains the dominant category
Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, segmented by type, in millions, 2010-12
Market factors
Health and wellness trend driving demand for BFY options
Figure 4: Reasons for “watching diet” among the 52% doing so, October 2009-December 2010
Low consumer confidence undermining growth
Figure 5: Consumer confidence trends, 2007-12
Companies, brands, and innovation
Figure 6: FDMx sales of bread in the U.S., in millions, 2011 and 2012
Group Bimbo realizes some gains with Mrs. Baird’s and Bimbo
The consumer
Buns and BFY options among most popular categories in the U.S.
Figure 7: Types of bread purchased in last year, May 2012
Incidence of use and changes in spending
Figure 8: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, May 2012
Taste and texture can trump price
Figure 9: Factors considered “very important” or “somewhat important” in bread purchase decision, May 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
What types of products are likely to drive future gains?
Which attributes tend to have the most influence on consumers?
Which consumer segments tend to use the most bread?
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Gluten-free products could drive significant gains for some manufacturers
Ethnic breads could drive growth
Work to create loyalty among parents and kids
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Make it Mine
Trend: Survival Skills
2015 Trend: Old Gold
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales remain largely unchanged in 2012
Niche markets offer growth opportunities
Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Fan chart forecast
Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of bread, at current prices, 2007-17
Walmart sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Most “watching” their diet
Figure 13: Watching diet and reasons for doing so, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 14: Incidence of being overweight or obese in the U.S. among adults aged 18+, 2005-10
Growth of 25-34 segment will drive long-term demand
Figure 15: U.S. population, by age, 2006-16
Parents and kids a key segment for marketers
Figure 16: Households, by presence and ages of children, 2011
Figure 17: Households, by presence of children, 2001-11
Rapid growth of minority segments will drive demand
Figure 18: Bread, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
Figure 19: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
Pricing a key consideration when targeting minorities
Figure 20: Median household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2010
Languishing recovery could undermine sales growth
Figure 21: Unemployment trends, 2007-12
Figure 22: Consumer confidence trends, 2007-12
2012 summer drought likely to result in higher bread prices
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Restaurants could pose an important competitive threat in the future
Figure 23: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, in millions, January 2008-July 2011
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Tortillas and refrigerated category growing faster than overall sales
Figure 24: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, segmented by type, 2010-12
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—FRESH LOAF BREAD
Key points
Retail sales slightly above 2008 levels in current terms
Figure 25: Total U.S. retail sales of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2007-17
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—FRESH ROLLS, BUNS, AND CROISSANTS
Key points
Rolls, buns, and croissants growing slightly faster than overall market
Figure 26: Total U.S. retail sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, at current prices, 2007-17
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—TORTILLAS
Key points
Tortilla sales expected to increase slightly in 2012
Figure 27: Total U.S. retail sales of tortillas, at current prices, 2007-17
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—IN-STORE BAKED BREADS
Key points
2012 sales expected to remain flat
Figure 28: Total U.S. retail sales of in-store baked breads, at current prices, 2007-17
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—FRESH BAGELS, BIALYS, ENGLISH MUFFINS
Key points
Sales reflect general trend seen in other categories
Figure 29: Total U.S. retail sales of fresh bagels, bialys, and English muffins, at current prices, 2007-17
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—REFRIGERATED/FROZEN BREAD, BAGELS, BIALYS, AND ENGLISH MUFFINS
Key points
Sales expected to increase considerably in 2012
Figure 30: Total U.S. retail sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys, and English muffins, at current prices, 2007-12
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Most sales made in supermarkets
Figure 31: Total U.S. retail sales of bread and bread products, by channel, 2010 and 2012
Figure 32: Total U.S. retail sales of bread in supermarkets, at current prices, 2007-12
Figure 33: Total U.S. retail sales of bread in other channels, at current prices, 2007-12
A majority purchases all types of bread at grocery
Figure 34: Outlets where bread is purchased, by bread type, May 2012
RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Insights
Sales of bread in the natural channel
Figure 35: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at current prices, 2009-11*
Figure 36: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
Natural channel sales of bread by segment
Figure 37: Natural supermarket sales of bread and bread products, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
Natural channel sales of organic bread
Figure 38: Natural supermarket sales of bread, organic vs. non-organic, 2009 and 2011*
Brands of note
Natural channel sales of gluten-free bread
Figure 39: Natural supermarket sales of gluten-free bread, 2009 and 2011*
Figure 40: Natural supermarket sales of bread loaves segment, by gluten free and organic, 2009 and 2011*
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Grupo Bimbo remains dominant
Private label sales up 0.5% as others report losses
Figure 41: FDMx sales of bread among leading manufacturers in the U.S., 2011 and 2012
BRAND SHARE—FRESH LOAF BREAD
Key points
Gains driven largely by brands with diverse offerings
Merita wins with BFY offering
Bimbo positioned to appeal to value-oriented shoppers
Figure 42: FDMx sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies, 2011 and 2012
BRAND SHARE—FRESH ROLLS, BUNS, AND CROISSANTS
Key points
Ball Park drives some gains for Sara Lee
Martin’s realizes gains with bun offering
Sweet gains for King’s Hawaiian
Figure 43: FDMx sales of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
BRAND SHARE—TORTILLAS
Key points
Gruma S.A. makes some inroads with Carb Balance product
La Banderita drives gains for Ole Mexican with authentic offering
Figure 44: FDMx sales of tortillas, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
BRAND SHARE—BAGELS, BIALYS, AND ENGLISH MUFFINS
Key points
Thomas’ remains dominant, continues to grow with mainstream offerings
Private label driving gains
Figure 45: FDMx sales of bagels, bialys, and English muffins, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
BRAND SHARE—REFRIGERATED/FROZEN BREAD, BAGELS, BIALYS, AND ENGLISH MUFFINS
Key points
Lancaster Colony Corp. posts gains with Sister Schubert’s
Udi’s wins with gluten-free offering
Whole-grain
Figure 46: FDMx sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys, and English muffins, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Key points
Bimbo’s innovation slows considerably in 2012
Figure 47: New bread and bread products launches among top 10 firms, 2007-12
BFY claims often associated with new launches
Figure 48: Top 10 claims most commonly associated with product launches, 2007-12
Premium private label products help retailers drive gains
BFY dessert breads could drive future gains
MARKETING STRATEGIES
 OVERVIEW OF THE BRAND LANDSCAPE
Sara Lee
Television advertising
Figure 49: Sara Lee television ad, 2012
Website
Figure 50: Sara Lee website, 2012
Figure 51: Sara Lee website, 2012
Mission Foods
Television advertising
Figure 52: Mission Foods tortilla ad, 2011
Figure 53: Mission Foods tortilla ad, 2011
Website
Figure 54: Mission Foods website, 2012
INCIDENCE OF USE AND CHANGES IN SPENDING
Key points
Young adults are a key segment for bread brands
Figure 55: Bread, by age, January 2011-March 2012
Heaviest users tend to come from low- and middle-income households
Figure 56: Bread, by household income, January 2011-March 2012
More than one in four report spending more on whole-grain and wheat
Figure 57: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, May 2012
Buns, whole-grain, wheat are the most popular types of bread in the U.S.
Figure 58: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by age, May 2012
Young adults more likely to report increased spending across categories
Figure 59: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by age, May 2012
Households with kids more likely to report increased spending
Figure 60: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by presence of children in household, May 2012
Figure 61: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by presence of children in household, May 2012
BRAND USAGE TRENDS
Key points
Sara Lee usage trends up as Grupo Bimbo takes control of the brand
Figure 62: Bread, February 2007-March 2012
Use of Bimbo brand bagels trending up
Figure 63: Bagels, February 2007-March 2012
GRAINS, SWEETENER, CALORIES, FAT, LOCAL, PREMIUM
Key points
A majority of shoppers are influenced by “whole-grain”
Figure 64: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by gender, May 2012
Few differences between age segments in demand for whole-grain
Figure 65: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by age, May 2012
Sweeteners and fat tend to be less influential than grain content
Local, organic, and reduced calorie more likely to drive purchase among 18-34s
Figure 66: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by age, May 2012
INFLUENCE OF BFY ATTRIBUTES VS. PRICE
Key points
“High in fiber” claims often drive purchase decisions
Figure 67: Influence of health and price-related attributes, May 2012
Price another key consideration, especially for young adults
Figure 68: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by age, May 2012
Low-sodium claims, vitamin fortification more important in lower-income households
Figure 69: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by household income, May 2012
TASTE, TEXTURE, AND BRAND VS. PRICE, LABELS
Key points
Taste, texture, brand, and nutritional labels especially important to women
Figure 70: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by gender, May 2012
Nutritional labeling particularly important to upper-income consumers
Figure 71: Other factors that impact the purchase decision, by household income, May 2012
Taste perceptions less likely to be “very important” to young adults
Figure 72: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by age, May 2012
Price and texture tend to be more important to parents
Figure 73: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by presence of children in household, May 2012
Figure 74: Other factors that impact the purchase decision, by gender, May 2012
BREAD-RELATED ATTITUDES—TASTE AND QUALITY
Key points
Most prefer taste of whole-grain; buy higher-quality breads
Most like to experiment and try breads from other cultures
Most report buying higher-quality breads
Figure 75: Taste and quality-related attitudes, May 2012
Young adults more likely to experiment and try breads from other cultures
Figure 76: Taste and quality-related attitudes, by age, May 2012
Upper-income households more likely to experiment
Figure 77: Taste and quality-related attitudes, by household income, May 2012
BREAD-RELATED ATTITUDES—HEALTH, PRICE, SHOPPING
Key points
Most think whole-grain breads and those high in fiber are healthier
Many want coupons and tend to shop for discounts
Figure 78: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, May 2012
Women more likely to view whole-grain as “healthier than white bread”
Figure 79: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, by gender, May 2012
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Hispanics somewhat more likely to report spending more on whole-grain
Figure 80: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
Demand for flatbreads and gluten-free products high among Asians
Figure 81: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
Minorities more likely than whites to frequently purchase BFY options
Figure 82: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
Asians, blacks, and Hispanics more likely to report buying higher quality
Figure 83: Bread-related behavior and attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUPS—GENDER AND AGE
Young men and women aged 55+ more likely to be influenced by fiber
Figure 84: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by gender and age, May 2012
Young men more likely to be influenced by BFY attributes
Figure 85: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by gender and age, May 2012
Young men and women both more likely to be influenced by low price
Figure 86: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by gender and age, May 2012
Young men somewhat more likely to report buying higher quality
Figure 87: Taste and quality-related attitudes and behaviors, by gender and age, May 2012
IRI/BUILDERS—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
 FRESH BREAD AND ROLLS—U.S.
 OVERVIEW OF FRESH BREAD AND ROLLS
 FRESH BREAD
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—fresh bread
Brand map
Figure 88: Brand map, selected brands of fresh bread buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 89: Key purchase measures for the top brands of fresh bread, by household penetration, 2011*
 ALL OTHER FRESH ROLLS/BUNS/CROISSANTS
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
Brand map
Figure 90: Brand map, selected brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 91: Key purchase measures for the top brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by household penetration, 2011*
 BAGELS/BIALYS
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—bagels/bialys
Brand map
Figure 92: Brand map, selected brands of bagels/bialys buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 93: Key purchase measures for the top brands of bagels/bialys, by household penetration, 2011*
APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Figure 94: Outlets where bread is purchased, by age, May 2012
Figure 95: Outlets where bread is purchased, by household income, May 2012
Figure 96: Outlets where bread is purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
Figure 97: Outlets where bread is purchased, by gender and age, May 2012
Figure 98: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by household income, May 2012
Figure 99: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by household income, May 2012
Figure 100: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by household income, May 2012
Figure 101: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by household income, May 2012
Figure 102: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by household income, May 2012
Figure 103: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by age, May 2012
Figure 104: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by household income, May 2012
Figure 105: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, by age, May 2012
Figure 106: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, by household income, May 2012
Figure 107: Bread usage behavior and attitudes (b), by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
Figure 108: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
Figure 109: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
Figure 110: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
Figure 111: Outlets where bread is purchased, by gender and age, May 2012
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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