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Cruises - UK - April 2012

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Volume forecast of sea cruise holidays, 2006-16
Figure 2: Value forecast of sea cruise holidays, 2006-16
Recession-proof cruise
UK departures drive growth
Figure 3: Ex-UK and fly-cruises taken, by volume, 2006-11
Figure 4: Volume of ocean cruise passengers, by destination, 2006-11
But (temporary) slowdown expected
European river cruise market expanding
Market factors
New ship supply
Concordia disaster sparks safety review
Figure 5: Annual average Brent crude oil prices, 2006-12
Demographic boost
Companies, brands and innovation
Carnival is the global leader
Floating resorts
New itineraries – near and far
Talent contests and celebrity chefs
Online cruise tools
The consumer
Cruises peak among 65-74s
Figure 6: Cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
A third of adults are potential cruisers
The Marmite holiday
Figure 7: Reasons for not taking a cruise, February 2012
Concordia accident deters few
Figure 8: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, February 2012
Destination, destination, destination
Sociable, hassle-free
Onboard perceptions split
Over land and sea
Special-occasion families
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Short-haul and domestic holidays are currently growing while long-haul is struggling. How will this affect cruise?
How important is the onboard experience, compared to the itinerary?
What is the best way to market to non-cruisers?
What is the relationship between sea cruises and river cruises?
What is the scope for a ‘green cruise’ brand?
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Trend: Slow It All Down
Trend: Click And Connect
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Travel market age shift
Figure 9: Domestic vs overseas holidays volume, 2006-11
Figure 10: Domestic and overseas holidays expenditure, 2006-11
Package capacity declining
Figure 11: Inclusive holidays versus independent holidays, by volume, 2006-11
Nearcation trend
Figure 12: Outbound holiday visits, by region visited, 2006-11
Two thirds of adults take holidays
Figure 13: Percentage of adults taking a holiday or short break in the last 12 months, 2009-11
Figure 14: Total number of trips taken in the last 12 months, by destination, 2010 and 2011
Cruise ship supply
Figure 15: Global supply of new cruise ships, 2008-13
The Concordia tragedy
Fuel pressure
Figure 16: Brent crude oil prices, 2006-12
Emission control
Antarctica changes
Sustainability challenge
Commission cuts
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Inflation drops but growth still stuttering
Figure 17: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2004-Q4 2011
Figure 18: UK Consumer Confidence Index, March 2011-February 2012
Over-55 boost
Figure 19: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2006-16
Older singles market set to grow
Figure 20: Forecast percentage change in adult population, by marital status and age, for England and Wales, 2008-33
AB growth
Figure 21: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
Weak Pound goes further at sea
Figure 22: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against other currencies, 2007-11
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Growing niche
Figure 23: All holidays and cruises, by volume and value, 2006-11
Package context
Figure 24: All package holidays and cruises, by volume and value, 2006-11
Fragmented holiday types
Figure 25: Types of holidays/short breaks taken in the last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
New launches
New UK-UK itineraries
Beyond Europe
Rail-sail
Themed cruises
Online cruise tools
Taking the tablets
River of Gold
Boating in the buff
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Recession-proof market
Figure 26: Sea cruise volume, value and average spend, 2006-16
Growth to slow in 2012...
...but few clouds on the horizon
Rising river market to recover from Arab Spring
Figure 27: River cruise volume, value and average spend, 2009-12
Forecast
Figure 28: Volume forecast of sea cruise holidays, 2006-16
Figure 29: Value forecast of sea cruise holidays, 2006-16
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Home ports drive growth
Figure 30: Ex-UK and fly-cruises taken, by volume, 2006-11
Cruising closer to home
Figure 31: Volume of sea cruise passengers, by destination from UK, 2006-11
Voyages of discovery
Ultra-luxury growth
Figure 32: Volume of ultra-luxury* cruises taken, 2006-11
Average cruising age gets older
Figure 33: Age analysis of cruise holidaymakers, 2000-11*
Sea virgins
Figure 34: First-time cruisers as percentage of UK market, 2006-11
Figure 35: Number of cruises taken in the last year, 2008-11
High-spending holidaymakers
Figure 36: Total amount spent on holidays (5 days or more) for self and family in the last 12 months, 2011
Figure 37: Total amount spent on sea cruise holidays (5 days or more) for self and family in the last 12 months, 2011
European river market expanding
Figure 38: River cruise volume, by region, 2009-11
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Carnival in cruise control
Figure 39: Number of vessels and passenger capacity, by operator, March 2012
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Carnival Corporation & plc
Cunard Line
New kind of luxury
P&O Cruises
New developments
Princess Cruises
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd
Royal Caribbean International
Ship classes
Onboard facilities
Celebrity Cruises
Azamara Club Cruises
Silversea Cruises
Putting it in perspective
Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines Ltd
Traditional ethos
Return to Liverpool
Thomson Cruises
New product development
Hurtigruten
Award for best specialist
Viking River Cruises
Fleet development
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
High street is still critical for cruise research...
Figure 40: Information sources used for holidays/short breaks, 2011
...and eight in ten cruisers book via an agent
Figure 41: Booking methods used by people who took at least one holiday/short break abroad during the year, 2010 and 2011
Figure 42: Booking methods used by people who took at least one sea cruise during the year, 2010 and 2011
Booking polarisation
Figure 43: How long before holidays/short breaks the bookings were made, 2011
Figure 44: How long before cruise holidays the bookings were made, by percentage of bookings, 2006-11
SEA CRUISE EXPERIENCE AND INTENTIONS
Key points
A third of adults are potential cruisers
Figure 45: Sea cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
Empty nesters still dominate market
Need to target over-75s
RIVER CRUISE EXPERIENCE AND INTENTIONS
Key points
Crossing the streams
Figure 46: River cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
WHAT PUTS NON-CRUISERS OFF?
Key points
Cost and confinement
Figure 47: Reasons for not taking a cruise, February 2012
Female security concerns
Cruise widow seeks boat buddy
Blue rinse anxiety
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CRUISE HOLIDAYS
Key points
One in nine adults put off cruising by Concordia tragedy
Figure 48: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, February 2012
Destination is still key
Sociable cruisers
Hassle-free holidays
Best of both worlds
Out of control
Special-occasion families
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 49: Forecast of sea cruise volume, best and worst case scenarios, 2011-16
Figure 50: Forecast of sea cruise value, best and worst case scenarios, 2011-16
APPENDIX – SEA CRUISE EXPERIENCE AND INTENTIONS
Figure 51: Sea cruises taken and future intentions, by demographics, February 2012
APPENDIX – RIVER CRUISE EXPERIENCE AND INTENTIONS
Figure 52: River cruises taken and future intentions, by sea cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
Figure 53: River cruises taken and future intentions, by demographics, February 2012
APPENDIX – WHAT PUTS NON-CRUISERS OFF?
Figure 54: Most popular reasons for not taking a cruise, by demographics, February 2012
Figure 55: Next most popular reasons for not taking a cruise, by demographics, February 2012
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CRUISE HOLIDAYS
Figure 56: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by sea cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
Figure 57: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by river cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
Figure 58: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by most popular reasons for not taking a cruise, February 2012
Figure 59: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by next most popular reasons for not taking a cruise, February 2012
Figure 60: Most popular attitudes towards cruise holidays, by demographics, February 2012
Figure 61: Next most popular attitudes towards cruise holidays, by demographics, February 2012
Figure 62: Other attitudes towards cruise holidays, by demographics, February 2012

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