Pizza at Retail - US - June 2011

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer data
Advertising clips
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Trade up to pizza takeout/delivery in 2010 drives retail market down
A sudden hiccup for all segments in 2010
Leading brands change ownership, private labels suffer
New product launches drop in 2009, regain momentum in 2010
The pizza consumer
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Calling attention to the high(er) price of delivery pizza
Healthful customization: cross-promote with better-for-you (BFY) toppings and sides
Taste will help private label frozen pizza regain momentum
Committing to truly, totally natural pizza
Creating a niche for pizza among popular Asian-fusion innovations
Expand social media efforts
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Trend: Make it Mine
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Economic recovery bodes ill, at least temporarily, for retail pizza market
Sales and forecast of pizza at retail
Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of pizza at retail, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Fan-chart forecast
Figure 3: Fan-chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2005-15
Walmart sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Asian population growth should positively impact the retail pizza market
Figure 4: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
Aging population presents challenge for the retail pizza market
Figure 5: Population, by age, 2006-16
Figure 6: Population, by generation, 2011
More smaller families does not bode well for this market
Figure 7: Households, by presence of children, 1999-2009
Disposable income and consumer confidence questionable
Figure 8: Real disposable income, 2007-11*
Figure 9: Consumer sentiment index, August 2007–March 2011
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Flatbreads: single-serve pizza-like options at the sandwich shop
Takeout/delivery threatens frozen pizza sales
Leading brand changes hands
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Modest growth in 2008-10 hurt by recent consumer behavior shifts
Total U.S. sales of pizza at retail by segment
Figure 10: Total U.S. sales of pizza at retail, by segment, 2008-10
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—FROZEN PIZZA
Key points
Innovation fails to keep sales growing
Sales and forecast of frozen pizza
Figure 11: Total U.S. sales of frozen pizza, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—REFRIGERATED/FROZEN KITS, CRUSTS, AND DOUGH
Key points
Pizza assembly with premium ingredients temporarily loses its charm
Sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen kits, crusts, and dough
Figure 12: Total U.S. sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen kits, crusts, and dough, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—SHELF-STABLE KITS, PIZZA SAUCES, AND CRUSTS
Key points
Sales decreases in 2010 break four-year trend
Sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts
Figure 13: Total U.S. sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts, at current prices, 2005-15
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets continue to lead, lose some share to warehouses
Sales of pizza at retail, by channel
Figure 14: Total U.S. sales of pizza at retail, by channel, 2008 and 2010
Figure 15: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2005-10
Figure 16: Supercenters, warehouse clubs’ sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2005-10
Figure 17: Drugstores’ sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2005-10
Figure 18: Other retailers’ sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Innovative products with the implication of better taste and healthfulness
Sales of pizza and pizza products in the natural channel
Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of pizza and pizza products, at current prices, 2008-10*
Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of pizza and pizza products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10*
Natural channel sales, by segment
Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of pizza and pizza products, by segment, 2008 and 2010*
Natural channel sales, by organic content
Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of pizza and pizza products, by organic content, 2008 and 2010*
Natural channel sales of pizza, crusts and focaccia, by gluten-free content
Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of pizza, pizza crusts and focaccia, by gluten-free content, 2008 and 2010*
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Sales drop for all companies in the most recent year
Private label’s ups and downs
Figure 24: Private label FDMx sales of pizza at retail in the U.S., 2008-10
FDMx sales of pizza at retail by manufacturer
Figure 25: Manufacturer FDMx sales of pizza at retail in the U.S., 2010 and 2011
BRAND SHARE—FROZEN PIZZA
Key points
DiGiorno moves to Nestlé in 2010 and introduces “Pizza & (side dishes)”
Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen pizza
Figure 26: Selected FDMx brand sales of frozen pizza, 2010 and 2011
BRAND SHARE—REFRIGERATED/FROZEN KITS, CRUSTS, AND DOUGH
Key points
Uno joins top brands, niche players abound
Manufacturer and brand sales of refrigerated/frozen kits, crusts, and dough
Figure 27: Selected FDMx brand sales of refrigerated/frozen kits, crusts, and dough, 2010 and 2011
BRAND SHARE—SHELF-STABLE KITS, PIZZA SAUCES, AND CRUSTS
Key points
Shelf-stable pizza sales decrease
Manufacturer and brand sales of shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts
Figure 28: Selected FDMx brand sales of shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts, 2010 and 2011
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Key points
Retail pizza product launches 2006-11
Figure 29: Retail pizza product launches, by top claims, 2006-11
Figure 30: Retail pizza product launches, by storage type, 2006-11
Figure 31: Private label share among new retail pizza product launches, 2006-11
Figure 32: Top five companies/top three brands, by new retail pizza product launches, 2006-11
Microwaveable/time/speed
Premium/exotic
All natural/no preservatives
Delivering an occasion
MARKETING STRATEGIES
 OVERVIEW
Ad spending in 2008-09
Figure 33: Advertising spending, select retail pizza brands 2008-09
 TELEVISION ADS
Figure 34: DiGiorno Rising Crust Pizza, “Man Tries to Scam Friend For The Cost of Delivery”, TV ad, 2010
Figure 35: DiGiorno Pizza,” Men hit friend’s head when giving high five”, TV ad, 2011
Figure 36: DiGiorno Rising Crust Pizza, “delivery guy loses his pants in a car door”, TV ad, 2010
Figure 37: Red Baron Pan Pizza, “Various pizza delivery men stop by at guy’s house for pizza”, TV ad, 2010
Figure 38: Freschetta Simply...Inspired Pizza, “Woman falls through store floor”, TV ad, 2011
Figure 39: Totino’s Party Pizza, “Boys feel they won even though they lost today”, TV ad, 2010
 ONLINE/SOCIAL MEDIA
DiGiorno
Red Baron
Freschetta Simply...Inspired
Totino’s
TYPES OF PIZZA EATEN IN AND OUT OF THE HOME
Key points
Pizza consumption by age
Figure 40: Pizza consumption in and out of the home, by age, February 2011
Pizza consumption by household income
Figure 41: Pizza consumption in and out of the home, by household income, February 2011
Pizza consumption by household size
Figure 42: Pizza consumption in and out of the home, by presence of children, February 2011
FROZEN PIZZA, CRUST, AND SAUCE USAGE AT HOME
Key points
DiGiorno leads frozen pizza consumption
Figure 43: Household pizza consumption frequency and usage, by brand, February 2011
Brand frequency of consumption
Figure 44: Household pizza consumption frequency and usage, by brand users, February 2011
Household consumption trends
Figure 45: Household pizza consumption, by age and household income, February 2011
Pizza crust and sauce usage by age
Figure 46: Pizza crust and sauce usage, by age, October 2009-December 2010
Pizza crust and sauce usage by income
Figure 47: Pizza crust and sauce usage, by household income, October 2009-December 2010
Pizza crust and sauce usage with children
Figure 48: Pizza crust and sauce usage, by presence of children, October 2009-December 2010
EATING OCCASIONS
Key points
Pizza eating occasions
Figure 49: Pizza eating occasions, February 2011
Pizza eating occasions by gender and age
Figure 50: Pizza eating occasions—frozen and fresh pizza, by gender and age, February 2011
Pizza eating occasions by household income and presence of children
Figure 51: Pizza eating occasions—frozen and fresh pizza, by household income and presence of children, February 2011
PIZZA INNOVATIONS/ATTRIBUTES OF INTEREST
Key points
Pizza innovations of interest by gender
Figure 52: Pizza innovations of interest, by gender, February 2011
Pizza innovations of interest by age
Figure 53: Pizza innovations of interest, by age, February 2011
Pizza innovations of interest by income level
Figure 54: Pizza innovations of interest, by household income, February 2011
Interest in new pizza concepts by presence of children
Figure 55: Pizza innovations of interest, by presence of children, February 2011
Health and positioning attributes of importance by gender
Figure 56: Attributes of importance with pizza sold in retail, by gender, February 2011
Health and positioning attributes by age
Figure 57: Attributes of importance with pizza sold in retail, by age, February 2011
Health and positioning attributes by presence of children
Figure 58: Attributes of importance with pizza sold in retail, by presence of children, February 2011
USAGE SHIFTS AND LIGHT/NON-USER ATTITUDES
Key points
Usage shifts in the last year by age
Figure 59: Usage shifts with pizza in the last year, by age, February 2011
Usage shifts in the last year by income
Figure 60: Usage shifts with pizza in the last year, by household income, February 2011
Usage shifts in the last year by presence of children in the household
Figure 61: Usage shifts with pizza in the last year, by presence of children, February 2011
Reasons that light/non-users aren’t eating frozen/refrigerated pizza by age and household income
Figure 62: Reasons for light/non-use, by age and household income, February 2011
Reasons that light/non-users aren’t eating frozen/refrigerated pizza by presence of children
Figure 63: Reasons for light/non-use, by presence of children, February 2011
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Pizza consumption by race/Hispanic origin
Figure 64: Pizza consumption in and out of the home, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2011
Pizza innovations of interest by race/Hispanic origin
Figure 65: Pizza innovations of interest, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2011
Retail pizza attributes of importance by race/Hispanic origin
Figure 66: Attributes of importance with pizza sold in retail, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2011
Usage shifts by race/Hispanic origin
Figure 67: Usage shifts with pizza in the last year, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2011
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Traditionalists
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Ready-Mades
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Customizers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Characteristic tables
Figure 68: Pizza at retail clusters, June 2011
Figure 69: Pizza consumption in and out of the home, by pizza at retail clusters, June 2011
Figure 70: Household pizza consumption, by brand, by pizza at retail clusters, June 2011
Figure 71: Household pizza consumption, by pizza at retail clusters, June 2011
Figure 72: Pizza innovations of interest, by pizza at retail clusters, June 2011
Figure 73: Attributes of importance with pizza sold in retail, by pizza at retail clusters, June 2011
Figure 74: Usage shifts with pizza in the last year, by pizza at retail clusters, June 2011
Demographic tables
Figure 75: Pizza at retail clusters, by gender, June 2011
Figure 76: Pizza at retail clusters, by age, June 2011
Figure 77: Pizza at retail clusters, by household income, June 2011
Figure 78: Pizza at retail clusters, by race, June 2011
Figure 79: Pizza at retail clusters by Hispanic origin, June 2011
Cluster methodology
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUPS
Usage and attitudes among heavy, medium, and light users
Key points
Pizza consumption among heavy, medium and light users
Figure 80: Pizza consumption in and out of the home, by custom groups, February 2011
Brand consumption among heavy, medium and light users
Figure 81: Household pizza consumption by brand, by custom groups, February 2011
Frequency of brand among heavy, medium and light users
Figure 82: Household pizza consumption frequency and usage, by brand, February 2011
Household pizza consumption among heavy, medium and light users
Figure 83: Household pizza consumption, by custom groups, February 2011
Pizza attributes of importance among heavy, medium and light users
Figure 84: Attributes of importance with pizza sold in retail, by custom groups, February 2011
Usage shifts in the last year among heavy, medium and light users
Figure 85: Usage shifts with pizza in the last year, by custom groups, February 2011
SYMPHONYIRI/BUILDERS—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
 FROZEN PIZZA
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen pizza
Brand map
Figure 86: Brand map, selected brands of pizza buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 87: Key purchase measures for the top brands of pizza, by household penetration, 2010*
APPENDIX—RESTAURANT TRENDS—PIZZA
Restaurants aggressive with consumer promotions
Pizza on foodservice menus, Q1 2008- Q1 2011
Figure 88: Leading pizza types/varieties appearing on menus, Q1 2008-Q1 2011
Leading pizza toppings on menus
Figure 89: Leading pizza toppings appearing on menus, Q1 2008- Q1 2011
Foodservice pizza prices drop
Figure 90: Pizza prices at foodservice establishments, Q1 2008- Q1 2011
APPENDIX—TRADE ASSOCIATIONS