Cold, Flu and Allergy Remedies - US - May 2011

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Sales of remedies sold through food, drug, and mass dip slightly
Market driven by flu/cold incidence, population growth among women, children, elderly
Moderate 2009-10 flu season hurt 2010 sales
One billion colds annually; 50 million allergy sufferers
Female, child, and elderly populations all forecast to increase
Competition from prescription and alternative remedies
Prescription medicines
Alternative remedies
Home remedies and treatment options
Functional foods: future threat?
Tablets top the FDMx market
Drug chains garner most OTC remedy business
J&J loses 25% in sales after brand recalls
Children’s remedies, fast-acting medicines top trends
Marketing strategies
Usage and frequency of use
Preventive healthcare measures
Ailment-specific treatment
Cough, cold, and sore throat
Flu
Purchase considerations and attitudes toward cold remedies
Allergies
Treating allergies and attitudes toward allergy medicine
Impact of race/Hispanic origin
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Tech advances that aid prevention and medication
In-store clinics present an opportunity for retailer/brand integration
Ongoing product recalls spell opportunity for natural ingredients
Allergen-free accommodations: an opening for brand partnership?
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Inspire Trend: Brand Review
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Moderate 2009-10 flu season and product recalls dampen sales
Alternative medicines threaten OTC remedy sales
Private label sales decelerate decline
Sales and forecast of cold, flu, and allergy remedies
Figure 1: U.S. FDMx retail sales and forecast of cold, flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 2: U.S. FDMx retail sales and forecast of cold, flu, and allergy remedies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Fan chart forecast
Figure 3: FDMx sales and fan chart forecast of cold, flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2005-15
Walmart sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Incidence and severity of cold, flu, and allergy
Figure 4: U.S. seasonal flu severity, 2001-10
Figure 5: Population of OTC flu remedy users, based on those confirmed to have the flu, by gender, 2011-16
Women, children, elderly most susceptible to infection
Children will grow in number between 2011 and 2016
Figure 6: U.S. child population, by age, 2006-16
Women set to increase in the population between 2011 and 2016
Figure 7: Female population, by age, 2006-16
Elderly population expected to grow more than any other demographic
Figure 8: U.S. adult population, by age, 2006-16
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Rx medicines compete with OTC remedies
Alternative remedies also pose a challenge to OTC medicines
Home remedies also prevent some sales of OTC medicines
Functional food/drinks may be a future competitive threat
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Tablets lead and post the only FDMx gains between 2009 and 2010
Liquids, nasal products drop sales
Sales of cold, flu, and allergy remedies, by segment
Figure 9: FDMx sales of cold, flu, and allergy remedies, segmented by type, 2009 and 2010
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—COLD/ALLERGY/SINUS TABLETS
Key points
Tablets continue to benefit from Rx switches
Private label tablets generate substantial FDMx sales
Sales and forecast of cold/allergy/sinus tablets
Figure 10: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of cold/allergy/sinus tablets, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—COLD/ALLERGY/SINUS LIQUIDS
Key points
Liquids plagued by product recalls while switch products fail to keep pace
Private label decelerates losses
Sales and forecast of cold/allergy/sinus liquids
Figure 11: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of cold/allergy/sinus liquid, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—NASAL PRODUCTS
Key points
Nasal product decline; further losses expected due to Zicam recall
Sales and forecast of nasal products
Figure 12: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of nasal products, at current prices, 2005-15
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Drug stores maintain reputation as top healthcare retailer
Food and mass stores fail to match drug stores
Sales of cold, flu, and allergy remedies, by channel
Figure 13: U.S. retail sales of market, by channel, 2009 and 2010
RETAIL CHANNELS—DRUG STORES
Key points
Sales slip in 2010, but drug stores more actively pursue healthcare services
Drug store sales of cold, flu, and allergy remedies
Figure 14: U.S. drug store sales of cold, flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—OTHER FDMX
Key point
Food and mass drop sales for the second year in a row
Other FDMX sales of cold, flu, and allergy remedies
Figure 15: U.S. other FDMx store sales of cold, flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2010
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
J&J falls dramatically on the heels of product recalls
Schering-Plough, Reckitt Benckiser, P&G all grow
Manufacturer sales of cough, cold, and throat remedies
Figure 16: Manufacturer FDMx sales of cold, flu, and allergy remedies in the U.S., 2010 and 2011
BRAND SHARE—COLD/ALLERGY/SINUS TABLETS
Key points
J&J still tops tablet segment despite recall troubles
Claritin continues its climb for Schering-Plough
Some Mucinex brands grow
Vicks drives solid growth for P&G
Private label capitalizes on tough economy, consumer sentiment
Manufacturer and brand sales of cold/allergy/sinus tablets
Figure 17: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of cold/allergy/sinus tablets in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—COLD/ALLERGY/SINUS LIQUIDS
Key points
Vicks increases give P&G the most growth in the liquids segment
J&J spirals following wide-ranging product recalls
Wyeth increases with Robitussin CF Max and Dimetapp Cold & Cough
Robitussin TV ad
Figure 18: Robitussin relief finder television ad, 2010
Theraflu and Triaminic boost FDMx Novartis sales
Private label grows 19%
Manufacturer and brand sales of cold/allergy/sinus liquids
Figure 19: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of cold/allergy/sinus liquids in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—NASAL PRODUCTS
Key points
Nondrug remedies capitalize on negative attention surrounding Zicam
Manufacturer and brand sales of nasal products
Figure 20: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of nasal products in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
NATURAL CHANNEL SALES
Key points
Sales fluctuate in the natural channel
Sales of cold, flu, and allergy products in the natural channel
Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of cold, flu, and allergy products, at current prices, 2009-11
Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of cold, flu, and allergy products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11
Natural channel sales by segment
Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of cold, flu, and allergy products, by segment, 2009 and 2011
Natural channel sales by product type
Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of cold, flu, and allergy products, by product type, 2008 and 2010*
Leading brands
INNOVATION AND INNOVATORS
Cough/cold/flu remedy launches outpace allergy remedy launches
Figure 25: Number of cough/cold/flu remedy launches vs. number of allergy remedy launches, 2004-10
Children’s and fast-acting remedies top new product categories
Figure 26: Cold, flu, and allergy product claims, 2004-10
Fast-acting remedies
Children’s remedies
Homeopathic remedies
BRANDS AND MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the brand landscape
Brand analysis: Zyrtec
Figure 27: Brand analysis of Zyrtec, 2011
Online initiatives
Zyrtec TV presence
Figure 28: Zyrtec television ad, 2010
Brand analysis: Claritin
Figure 29: Brand analysis of Claritin, 2011
Online initiatives
Claritin TV presence
Figure 30: Claritin television ad, 2011
Brand analysis: Mucinex
Figure 31: Brand analysis of Mucinex, 2011
Online initiatives
Mucinex TV presence
Figure 32: Mucinex television ad, 2011
Brand analysis: Vicks
Figure 33: Brand analysis of Vicks, 2011
Online initiatives
Vicks TV presence
Figure 34: Vicks television ad, 2010
USAGE
Key points
Six in 10 report using remedies
Figure 35: Usage of cold, allergy, and sinus remedies, by gender, July 2009-September 2010
Respondents aged 35-54 most likely to report using remedies
Figure 36: Usage of cold, allergy, and sinus remedies, by age, July 2009-September 2010
TYPES OF COLD/ALLERGY/SINUS FORMULATIONS USED
Key points
Most use 12-hour formulations
Figure 37: Types of cold/allergy/sinus formulations used, by gender, July 2009-September 2010
Use of four to six-hour formulations decreases with age
Figure 38: Types of cold/allergy/sinus formulations used, by age, July 2009-September 2010
BRANDS OF COLD/ALLERGY/SINUS REMEDIES USED
Key points
Respondents use Tylenol, Vicks, Benadryl most
Figure 39: Summary of top 10 cold/allergy/sinus brands used, by gender, July 2009-September 2010
Those aged 18-34 report using Tylenol, Vicks more than older respondents
Figure 40: Summary of top 10 cold/allergy/sinus brands used, by age, July 2009-September 2010
Use of Sudafed increases with household income
Figure 41: Summary of top 10 cold/allergy/sinus brands used, by household income, July 2009-September 2010
USAGE FREQUENCY
Key points
Allergy remedies are used most frequently
Figure 42: Frequency of use of cold/allergy/sinus remedies, by gender, July 2009-September 2010
Those aged 18-24 are the most likely to use allergy meds one to six times per year
Figure 43: Frequency of use of cold/allergy/sinus remedies, by age, July 2009-September 2010
PREVENTIVE HEALTHCARE MEASURES
Key points
Hand washing, vitamin regimen top preventive measures
Figure 44: Preventive healthcare measures in past 12 months, by gender, January 2011
Older respondents most likely to wash hands frequently, take vitamins
Figure 45: Preventive healthcare measures in past 12 months, by age, January 2011
Lowest-income households least likely to take preventive measures
Figure 46: Preventive healthcare measures in past 12 months, by household income, January 2011
COUGH, COLD, AND FLU SUFFERERS
Key points
Cough, cold, sore throat reported more than flu
Figure 47: Cough, cold, and flu experienced in the past 12 months, by gender, January 2011
Incidence is highest among those aged 18-44
Figure 48: Cough, cold, and flu experienced in the past 12 months, by age, January 2011
COUGH, COLD, SORE THROAT TREATMENT
Key points
Women report more use of OTC, herbal, and home remedies than men
Figure 49: Treating a cough, cold, or sore throat, by gender, January 2011
Senior respondents least likely to use a range of OTC remedies
Figure 50: Treating a cough, cold, or sore throat, by age, January 2011
FLU TREATMENT
Key points
Respondents use OTC for flu less than for cough/cold/sore throat
Figure 51: Treating flu, by gender, January 2011
Respondents aged 18-34 most likely to use a range of OTC
Figure 52: Treating flu, by age, January 2011
PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
Key points
Fast acting, long lasting cited as most important product attributes
Figure 53: Importance rating of cough/cold/flu medicine attributes, January 2011
Female respondents appear more concerned with product attributes
Figure 54: Importance rating of cough/cold/flu remedies, by gender, January 2011
Lower-income respondents most likely to cite price as important
Figure 55: Importance rating of cough/cold/flu remedies, by household income, January 2011
ATTITUDES TOWARD AND CONCERNS ABOUT COUGH/COLD/FLU MEDICINE
Key points
A majority agree that brand name is not always worth the extra price
Figure 56: Attitudes and concerns about medicine, by gender, January 2011
Those aged 55+ most concerned with side effects/negative interactions
Figure 57: Attitudes and concerns about medicine, by age, January 2011
ALLERGY SUFFERERS
Key points
Female respondents more likely to report allergies
Figure 58: Allergies experienced in the past 12 months, by gender, January 2011
Nonfood allergies appear to decrease among seniors
Figure 59: Allergies experienced in the past 12 months, by age, January 2011
TREATING NONFOOD ALLERGIES
Key points
Most respondents use OTC for seasonal and other nonfood allergies
Figure 60: Overview of allergy treatments used, by allergy type, January 2011
Senior respondents least likely to use OTC for seasonal allergies
Figure 61: Treating seasonal/outdoor allergies, by age, January 2011
18-34 most likely to use decongestants for other nonfood allergies
Figure 62: Treating other nonfood allergies, by age, January 2011
HH income of $50K+ means more OTC and Rx for other nonfood allergies
Figure 63: Treating other nonfood allergies, by household income, January 2011
ALLERGY MEDICINE SIDE EFFECTS
Key points
Drowsiness, dry mouth, sleepiness top list of side effects experienced
Figure 64: Allergy medicine side effects experienced, by gender, January 2011
Respondents under 45 are the most likely to experience side effects
Figure 65: Allergy medicine side effects experienced, by age, January 2011
ATTITUDES TOWARD AND CONCERNS ABOUT ALLERGY MEDICINE
Key points
A majority applaud Rx-to-OTC allergy remedy switches
Figure 66: Attitudes and concerns about allergy medicine, by gender, January 2011
Over-65s most likely to agree private label equivalent to national brands
Figure 67: Attitudes and concerns about allergy medicine, by age, January 2011
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Black respondents most likely to take preventive measure
Figure 68: Preventive healthcare measures in past 12 months, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
Cough, sore throat and flu experienced in past year
Figure 69: Cough, cold, and flu experienced in the past 12 months, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
Blacks most likely to use Rx as well as a range of OTC remedies
Figure 70: Treating a cough, cold or sore throat, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
Blacks, Hispanics report a range of important purchase considerations
Figure 71: Importance rating of cough/cold/flu remedies, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
Blacks most likely to worry about side effects, negative interactions
Figure 72: Attitudes and concerns about medicine, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
Blacks most likely to use Rx as well as OTC decongestants
Figure 73: Treating seasonal/outdoor allergies, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
Blacks, Hispanics more likely to have concerns about allergy remedies
Figure 74: Attitudes and concerns about allergy medicine, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Cluster 1: Natural Experimenters
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster 2: Concerned Moderates
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster 3: Passive Sufferers
Characteristics
Opportunity
Characteristic tables
Figure 75: Cold, flu, and allergy remedies consumer clusters, January 2011
Figure 76: Cough, cold, flu, and allergies experienced in the past 12 months, by clusters, January 2011
Figure 77: Preventive healthcare measures in past 12 months, by clusters, January 2011
Figure 78: Treating a cough, cold, or sore throat, by clusters, January 2011
Figure 79: Importance rating of cough/cold/flu remedies, by clusters, January 2011
Figure 80: Attitudes and concerns about medicine, by clusters, January 2011
Demographic tables:
Figure 81: Cold, flu, and allergy remedies consumer clusters by gender, January 2011
Figure 82: Cold, flu, and allergy remedies consumer clusters by age, January 2011
Figure 83: Cold, flu, and allergy remedies consumer clusters by household income, January 2011
Figure 84: Cold, flu, and allergy remedies consumer clusters by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
Cluster methodology
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUPS
Key points
Midwestern respondents most likely to use OTC for cough/cold/sore throat
Figure 85: Treating a cough, cold, or sore throat, by region, January 2011
Presence of children raises concerns about cough/cold/sore throat remedies
Figure 86: Attitudes and concerns about medicine, by presence of children, January 2011
SYMPHONYIRI GROUP BUILDERS PANEL DATA
 COLD/ALLERGY/SINUS TABLETS
Consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 87: Brand map, selected brands of cold/allergy/sinus tablets buying rate by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 27, 2010
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 88: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cold/allergy/sinus tablets, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 27, 2010
 COLD/ALLERGY/SINUS LIQUIDS
Consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 89: Brand map, selected brands of cold/allergy/sinus liquids buying rate by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 27, 2010
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 90: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cold/allergy/sinus liquids, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 27, 2010
APPENDIX—OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES—HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Cough, cold, sore throat and flu
Figure 91: Cough, cold, and flu experienced in the past 12 months, by household income, January 2011
Figure 92: Treating a cough, cold, or sore throat, by household income, January 2011
Figure 93: Treating flu, by household income, January 2011
Figure 94: Attitudes and concerns about medicine, by household income, January 2011
Allergy sufferers
Figure 95: Allergies experienced in the past 12 months, by household income, January 2011
Figure 96: Treating seasonal/outdoor allergies, by household income, January 2011
Figure 97: Allergy medicine side effects experienced, by household income, January 2011
Figure 98: Attitudes and concerns about allergy medicine, by household income, January 2011
APPENDIX—SYMPHONYIRI BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
SymphonyIRI Consumer Network Metrics
APPENDIX—TRADE ASSOCIATIONS