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Chocolate Confectionery - UK - April 2011

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Consumer research
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: UK retail sales of all chocolate, 2005-15
Market factors
Rising cocoa prices are a key concern for the market
Figure 2: Monthly averages of daily prices per tonne, cocoa, January 2005-January 2011
Rising numbers of 25-34-year-olds is good news for chocolate
Health concerns affect the market
Companies, brands and innovation
Figure 3: Manufacturers’ value shares in the UK chocolate market (retail sales), 2010
The consumer
Reaction to price increases
Figure 4: Consumer reaction to the prospect of rising chocolate prices in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
Chocolate preferences
Figure 5: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, February 2011
Chocolate in moderation
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Did rising commodity prices impact market growth in 2010?
Is chocolate a priority for households in austerity Britain?
How can brands maintain consumer trust in the face of price rises?
How can product innovation curb cutting-back by health-conscious consumers?
How have brands capitalised on the ‘staying-in’ opportunity?
Does fair trade really engage consumers?
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Trend: Prove It
Trend: Empowered Seniors
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Tapping into the ‘nights-in’ opportunity
Obesity and growth of the ‘slimming’ population
Figure 6: Type of food eaten, December 2010
Figure 7: Trends in healthy lifestyles and eating/snacking habits, 2006-10
Go lighter or go smaller
Are children still the core market?
Figure 8: Trend in snacks/nibbles eaten, according to % point change, 2006-10
Change4life campaign
Sustainability is the key buzz word for ingredients and packaging
Figure 9: Agreement with ethical lifestyle statements, 2006-10
Investing in sustainable cocoa farming
Packaging reductions to improve the carbon footprint
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Is chocolate a priority in austerity Britain?
Figure 10: Gfk NOP Consumer confidence index, January 2008-February 2011
Figure 11: Extra money spent on, January 2011
Figure 12: Eating habit trends, Dec 2008-February 2011
Cause for alarm as cocoa prices continue to rise
Figure 13: Monthly averages of daily prices per tonne, cocoa, January 2005-January 2011
How will population trends affect the confectionery market?
Figure 14: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2005-15
Figure 15: UK households, by size, 2005-15
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Adult snacking habits
Figure 16: Frequency and place of snacking, March 2010
Figure 17: Top indulgent snacks and their market sizes, 2006-10
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
New product launch activity regained its momentum in 2010
Figure 18: New product launch trends in the chocolate confectionery category*, 2006-10
Sharing formats
Figure 19: New product launch trends in the chocolate confectionery category*, by sub-category, 2006-10
Figure 20: Examples of non-individually wrapped chocolate pieces, 2010-11
Figure 21: Examples of chocolate tablets, 2010-11
Cadbury reinforces its Olympics sponsorship on all packaging
Figure 22: New product launch trends in the chocolate confectionery category*, by company, 2006-10
Own-label activity
Environmentally-friendly packaging comes to the fore
Figure 23: New product launch trends in the chocolate confectionery category*, by product claim, 2006-10
Few new products target children directly
MARKET VALUE AND FORECAST
Key points
Chocolate confectionery hit by cost increases and growth in healthy eating
Figure 24: UK retail sales of all chocolate, 2005-15
Figure 25: UK retail sales of chocolate, by sector, 2006-10
Premium brands give fresh impetus to boxed chocolates
Spring brings extended opportunities for Easter sales
Future outlook
Figure 26: Forecast of UK retail sales of all chocolate, 2005-15
Segmentation
Figure 27: Forecast of UK retail sales of chocolate confectionery, 2005-15
Figure 28: UK retail sales of chocolate confectionery, 2005-15
Figure 29: Forecast of UK retail sales of boxed and seasonal chocolate, 2005-15
Figure 30: UK retail sales of boxed and seasonal chocolate, 2005-15
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
‘Me-time’ indulgence has become ‘our time’
Figure 31: UK retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by sector, 2006-10
Countlines step up innovation to distract from rising prices
Figure 32: UK retail sales of moulded bar chocolate, by size and positioning, 2006-10
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Figure 33: Manufacturers’ value shares in the UK chocolate market (retail sales), 2008-10
Competition for the ‘take a break’ market
Ferrero sees scope for growth in its Kinder brand
Own-label capitalises on consumer cutbacks
Hershey widens its distribution in the UK
Figure 34: UK Leading brands purchased in the UK chocolate market, 2008-10
Mars invests in the ‘lighter’ route to success
The £2m battle’s on for the female vote
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Ferrero
Figure 35: Major product launches in the UK by Ferrero UK, July 2009-January 2011
Kraft Foods UK
Figure 36: Major product launches by Kraft Foods UK, July 2009-January 2011
Mars UK Ltd
Figure 37: New product launches in the UK by Mars UK, January 2009-January 2011
Nestlé UK and Ireland Ltd
Figure 38: Major product launches in the UK by Nestlé UK, July 2009-January 2011
Thorntons
Figure 39: Major product launches in the UK by Thorntons, July 2009-January 2011
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 40: Attitudes towards and usage of chocolate brands, January 2011
Brand attitudes
Figure 41: Attitudes by chocolate brand, January 2011
Brand personality
Figure 42: Chocolate brand personality – macro image, January 2011
Figure 43: Chocolate brand personality – micro image, January 2011
Correspondence analysis
Brand experience
Figure 44: Chocolate brand usage, January 2011
Figure 45: Satisfaction with various chocolate brands, %, January 2011
Figure 46: Consideration of chocolate brands, January 2011
Figure 47: Consumer perceptions of current chocolate brand performance, January 2011
Figure 48: Chocolate brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, January 2011
Brand index
Figure 49: Chocolate brand index, January 2011
Figure 50: Chocolate brand index vs. recommendation, January 2011
Target group analysis
Figure 51: Target groups, January 2011
Figure 52: Chocolate brand usage, by target groups, January 2011
Group One – The Conformists
Group Two – Simply the Best
Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
Group Five – The Individualists
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Above the line spend rises by 23% in 2010
Figure 53: Main monitored media advertising expenditure (bars and countlines) on chocolate confectionery, 2007-10*
Figure 54: Main monitored advertising spend on chocolate bars and countlines by top ten manufacturers in the chocolate confectionery category, 2007-10*
Mars relies on the beautiful game to make its countlines more attractive
Green & Black’s doubles its spend for 2011
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Figure 55: UK retail value sales of chocolate confectionery, by outlet type (excluding seasonal and boxed chocolate), 2006-10
Importance of impulse
Chocolate has mixed results on the high street
THE CONSUMER – TRENDS IN CHOCOLATE CONSUMPTION
Key points
Despite competition from other snacks, obesity concerns and the cost of living, chocolate consumption remains steady
Figure 56: Trends in frequency of eating chocolate bars and other chocolate items (excluding boxed chocolates), 2006-10
Room for growth
Gaps in the market
Shrinking children’s market
Figure 57: Trends in consumption of chocolate, 7-16-year-olds, 2006-10
PERSONAL AND GIFT PREFERENCES WHEN BUYING CHOCOLATE
Key points
Figure 58: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, February 2011
Because I’m worth it...
Chocolate faux pas
Figure 59: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else in the last 12 months, February 2011
Seasonal and gift occasions
Figure 60: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by gender, according to +/- average response, February 2011
Figure 61: People bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by gender, according to +/- average response, February 2011
Enthusiasm for seasonal and boxed chocolates
Figure 62: Repertoire of people bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for and types of occasions, February 2011
Figure 63: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by gender, according to +/- average response by demographic, February 2011
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CHOCOLATE CONFECTIONERY
Key points
Dark vs milk – style over substance?
Figure 64: Dark vs milk – Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
Chocolate is considered ok in moderation for children
Figure 65: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
A stubborn third of consumers remain unconvinced about fair trade chocolate
Figure 66: Level of agreement with attitudes towards fair trade chocolate confectionery, %, February 2011
CONSUMER ATTITUDES TOWARDS PRICE INCREASES
Key points
Figure 67: Consumer reaction to the prospect of rising chocolate prices in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
Attitudes towards pack size reduction – honesty is the best policy
Figure 68: Consumer reaction to the prospect of smaller pack sizes in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
TARGET GROUPS
Key points
Figure 69: Target groups based on consumer reactions to rising chocolate prices, February 2011
Switchers
Who are they more likely to be?
Current chocolate buying habits
Die-Hard Chocoholics
Who are they more likely to be?
Current chocolate buying habits
Begrudging But Still Buying
Who are they more likely to be?
Current chocolate buying habits
Size Matters
Who are they more likely to be?
Current chocolate buying habits
APPENDIX – INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Figure 70: Eat chocolate, 2006-10
Figure 71: Number of packets of chocolate eaten last week, 2006-10
Figure 72: Frequency of eating chocolates, 2006-10
Figure 73: Types of chocolates eaten, 2009-10
Figure 74: Who buys chocolate, 2006-10
Figure 75: Where chocolates eaten, 2006-10
Figure 76: Trends in body mass index (BMI) of adults in England, by gender, 2006-09
Figure 77: Trends in adults trying to slim, 2006-10
Figure 78: Trends in body mass index (BMI) of children in England, by gender, 2006-09
Figure 79: Average weekly income of children aged 7-14, by gender and age, 2008-10
Figure 80: Average weekly income of children aged 7-14, by gender and age, 2008-10
Figure 81: Trends in eating/snacking views of children, 2006-10
Figure 82: How 7-10-year-olds spend their money, 2006-10
APPENDIX – MARKET VALUE AND FORECAST
Figure 83: Best and worst case forecasts of UK retail value sales of all chocolate, 2010-15
Figure 84: Best and worst case forecasts of UK retail value sales of chocolate confectionary, 2010-15
Figure 85: Best and worst case forecasts of UK retail value sales of seasonal and boxed chocolate, 2010-15
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – TRENDS IN CHOCOLATE CONSUMPTION
Figure 86: Trends in frequency of eating chocolate bars and other chocolate items (excluding boxed chocolates), 2006-10
Volume Importance Index (VII) tables
Figure 87: Frequency of eating chocolate bars and other chocolate items (excluding boxed chocolates), by demographics, 2010
Figure 88: Consumption of chocolate, 7-16-year-olds, 2006-10
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – PERSONAL AND GIFT PREFERENCES WHEN BUYING CHOCOLATE
Figure 89: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, February 2011
Figure 90: People bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, February 2011
Figure 91: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, February 2011
Figure 92: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, by demographics, February 2011
Figure 93: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
Figure 94: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, by types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months (cont.), February 2011
Figure 95: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, by types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months (cont.), February 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER ATTITUDES TOWARDS PRICE INCREASES
Figure 96: Consumer reaction to the prospect of rising chocolate prices in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
Figure 97: Consumer reaction to the prospect of smaller pack sizes in response to higher cocoa costs, by demographics, February 2011
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CHOCOLATE CONFECTIONERY
Figure 98: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
Figure 99: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
Figure 100: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics, February 2011
Figure 101: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics, February 2011 (continued)
Figure 102: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
Figure 103: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011 (continued)
Figure 104: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
Figure 105: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
Figure 106: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
Figure 107: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, any agree, February 2011
Figure 108: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, any agree, February 2011
Figure 109: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, any disagree, February 2011
Figure 110: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, any disagree, February 2011
Figure 111: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
Figure 112: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery (cont.), February 2011
Figure 113: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself, in the last 12 months, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
Figure 114: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself, in the last 12 months, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery (cont.), February 2011
Figure 115: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for someone else, in the last 12 months, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
Figure 116: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for someone else, in the last 12 months by Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery (cont.), February 2011
Figure 117: People bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, by demographics, February 2011
Figure 118: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by demographics, February 2011
Figure 119: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
Figure 120: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by people bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, February 2011
Figure 121: Repertoire of people bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, February 2011
Figure 122: Repertoire of occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, February 2011
Figure 123: Repertoire of occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by demographics, February 2011
APPENDIX – TARGET GROUPS
Figure 124: Target groups, by demographics, February 2011
Figure 125: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself, in the last 12 months, by target groups, February 2011
Figure 126: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for someone else, in the last 12 months by target groups, February 2011
Figure 127: Consumer reaction to the prospect of rising chocolate prices in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
Figure 128: Consumer reaction to the prospect of smaller pack sizes in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
Figure 129: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
Figure 130: People bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, by target groups, February 2011
Figure 131: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by target groups, February 2011
Figure 132: Repertoire of people bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, by demographics, February 2011

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