Salty Snacks: Popcorn, cheese, corn and meat snacks - US - April 2011

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Sales of popcorn, cheese snacks, meat snacks, and corn snacks near all-time high despite slight decline in 2010
Population trends both favor and hinder market
Competition coming from a variety of directions
Popcorn segment dealing with reports regarding product safety
Cheese snacks eke out small growth
Meat snacks’ success connected with Jack Link’s and other key brands
Corn snacks weighed down by poor performance of big brands
Supermarkets appear to have benefited from recession
“Other” channels down but far from out
Convenience stores continue strong growth pattern
Growth comes naturally for natural supermarkets
Frito-Lay product portfolio’s diversity paying off
Innovation a key factor in salty snacks market
Marketing strategies embrace traditional as well as online
Snacking consumption more prevalent among under-54s, higher earners and larger households
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Co-branding with complementary brands
Cross-promoting with Netflix or other movie providers
All-in-one popcorn bags and bowls
Popcorn and meat snacks as meal replacements
Developing premium private label snack brands
Branded snacking shops
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Inspire Trend: “Mood From Food”
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales near all-time high despite slight drop in 2010
Sales and forecast—total salty snacks
Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and forecast of popcorn, cheese snacks, meat snacks, and corn snacks, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and forecast of popcorn, cheese snacks, meat snacks, and corn snacks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Fan chart forecast
Figure 3: Fan chart forecast of total U.S. retail sales of popcorn, cheese, corn, meat and other* snacks, at current prices, 2005-15
Walmart sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Asian and Hispanic population growth favors salty snacks
Figure 4: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
Growing popularity of food-rating systems will favor healthier salty snacks
Aging population not in salty snacks’ favor
Figure 5: U.S. Population, by age, 2006-16
Number of households with children decreasing could lower purchase occasions
Figure 6: Households, by presence of children, 1999-2009
Corn prices potentially causing bushels of trouble with pricing
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Desire to eat better makes fruits/vegetables a healthy alternative to salty snacks
Snack/cereal/energy bars have been more innovative
Salty snack segments compete amongst themselves
Quick-Service Restaurants’ (QSRs) aggressive pricing eating into salty snack usage occasions
Frozen appetizers/snack rolls could chill salty snack sales
Figure 7: FDMx sales and forecast of frozen appetizers/snack rolls, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Consumers show willingness to spend on snacks
Figure 8: Total U.S. sales and forecast of popcorn, cheese snacks, meat snacks, and corn snacks, by segment, 2008 and 2010
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—POPCORN
Key points
Possible health concerns putting scare into sales
Sales and forecast—popcorn
Figure 9: total U.S. sales and forecast of popcorn, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—EXTRUDED CHEESE SNACKS
Key points
Segment sales up slightly but losing momentum
Sales and forecast—extruded cheese snacks
Figure 10: Total U.S. sales and forecast of extruded cheese snacks, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—MEAT SNACKS
Key points
Meat snacks segment has reason to feel bullish
Sales and forecast—meat snacks
Figure 11: Total U.S. sales and forecast of meat snacks, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—CORN SNACKS
Key points
Big brands not carrying their weight
Sales and forecast—corn snacks
Figure 12: Total U.S. sales and forecast of corn snacks, at current prices, 2005-15
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets continue to grapple with shopper defections
Convenience stores gain at the expense of other formats
Figure 13: Total U.S. retail sales of popcorn, cheese snacks, meat snacks, and corn snacks, by retail channel, 2008 and 2010
RETAIL CHANNELS—SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Supermarkets fared best during height of recession
Figure 14: Sales of popcorn, cheese snacks, meat snacks, and corn snacks, at supermarkets, at current prices, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—“OTHER” CHANNELS
Key points
Despite sales dip, “other” channels remain near all-time highs
Figure 15: Sales of popcorn, cheese snacks, meat snacks, and corn snacks, at other channels*, at current prices, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—CONVENIENCE STORES
Key points
Convenience stores continue winning ways
Figure 16: Sales of popcorn, cheese snacks, meat snacks, and corn snacks, at convenience stores, at current prices, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Insights
Sales of salty snacks—popcorn, cheese, corn and meat snacks—in the natural channel
Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of popcorn, cheese, corn and meat snacks, at current prices, 2008-10*
Figure 18: Natural supermarket sales of popcorn, cheese, corn and meat snacks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10*
Natural channel sales by segment
Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of popcorn, cheese, corn and meat snacks, by segment, 2008 and 2010*
Leading natural brands
Natural channel sales by organic content
Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of popcorn, cheese, corn and meat snacks, by organic content, 2008 and 2010*
Natural channel sales by gluten-free
Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of popcorn, cheese, corn and meat snacks, by gluten-free, 2008 and 2010*
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
PepsiCo’s diverse product portfolio makes it the clear leader
Figure 22: FDMx sales of leading popcorn, cheese, corn and meat and other snacks companies, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—POPCORN
Key points
Few brands seeing pop in sales
ConAgra Foods remains segment leader despite sales decline
Figure 23: FDMx brand sales of popcorn in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—EXTRUDED CHEESE SNACKS
Key points
Frito-Lay looks to innovation to maintain its dominant position
Figure 24: FDMx brand sales of extruded cheese snacks in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—MEAT SNACKS
Key points
Top manufacturers posting strong gains fuel growth
Frito-Lay connects with Link Industries to maintain meat snacks presence
Figure 25: FDMx brand sales of meat snacks in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—CORN SNACKS
Key points
Frito-Lay dominates despite lackluster performance by newer brands
Figure 26: FDMx brand sales of corn snacks in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Key points
 NEW PRODUCT LAUNCH TRENDS
Snack/cereal/energy bars fuel launches
Figure 27: Number of snack launches, by type, 2005-10
Nothing cheesy about cheese’s versatility
Figure 28: Top claims on snack launches with cheese, 2005-10
Popcorn being more innovative in 2010
Figure 29: Top claims on popcorn launches, 2005-10
 NEW PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS
Popcorn
Cheese-based
Meat snacks
Corn snacks
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Key points
 MARKETING AND SOCIAL MEDIA
Orville Redenbacher’s is lone brand to receive major marketing support
Cheetos and Slim Jim Facebook with their brand names
Jack Link’s uses its website to promote brands via Wild Side Man Cave sweepstakes
 TV ADVERTISING
Jack Link’s connects sports with Sasquatch
Figure 30: Jack Link’s beef jerky, TV ad, January 2011
Cheetos looking to make more out of snack time
Figure 31: Cheetos, TV ad, January 2011
Pop Secret encourages in-home movie nights
Figure 32: Pop Secret, TV ad, October 2010
SALTY SNACK PURCHASE
Key points
Salty snacks purchases in supermarkets and mass merchandisers crunches other outlets
Figure 33: Frequency of buying salty snacks at specific types of retailer, November 2010
Multipack/bulk purchases have slight edge over single packs
Figure 34: Purchase of salty snacks in single pack vs. multipack/bulk, by key demographics, November 2010
REASONS FOR BUYING SALTY SNACKS
Figure 35: Reasons for buying salty snacks—to eat now, later, for others, by age, November 2010
Figure 36: Reasons for buying salty snacks—to eat now, later, for others, by household income, November 2010
Figure 37: Reasons for buying salty snacks—to eat now, later, for others, by marital status, November 2010
Figure 38: Reasons for buying salty snacks—to eat now, later, for others, by number of people in household, November 2010
Figure 39: Reasons for buying salty snacks—to eat now, later, for others, by employment groups, November 2010
Figure 40: Reasons for buying salty snacks—stock at home/work, take to work/school, by age, November 2010
Figure 41: Reasons for buying salty snacks—stock at home/work, take to work/school, by household income, November 2010
Figure 42: Reasons for buying salty snacks—stock at home/work, take to work/school, by number of people in household, November 2010
Figure 43: Reasons for buying salty snacks—stock at home/work, take to work/school, by presence and number of children, November 2010
FACTORS IMPACTING CHOICE AND PURCHASE
Figure 44: Important factors when choosing chips and salty snacks, November 2010
Figure 45: Impact of the recession on amount of salty snacks bought, by age, November 2010
Figure 46: Impact of the recession on amount of salty snacks bought, by household income, November 2010
Figure 47: Impact of the recession on amount of salty snacks bought, by presence and number of children, November 2010
Figure 48: Impact of the recession on amount of salty snacks bought, by urban status, November 2010
Figure 49: Impact of the recession on amount of salty snacks bought, by education, November 2010
More at-home time increasing salty snacks sales
Figure 50: Reasons for buying more salty snacks as a result of the recession, November 2010
Figure 51: Reasons for buying fewer salty snacks as a result of the recession, November 2010
TYPES OF SALTY SNACKS EATEN
Key points
Snacking consumption concentrated among younger respondents
Figure 52: Types of salty snacks eaten, by age, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Figure 53: Types of salty snacks eaten, by household income, July 2009 -Sept. 2010
Figure 54: Types of salty snacks eaten, by number of people in household, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Figure 55: Types of salty snacks eaten, by presence of children, July 2009-Sept. 2010
THE POPCORN CONSUMER
Key points
Orville Redenbacher’s projects upscale image
Figure 56: Brands of popcorn eaten, by household income, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Figure 57: Brands of popcorn eaten, by presence of children, July 2009-Sept. 2010
THE CORN, TORTILLA CHIPS AND CHEESE SNACKS CONSUMER
Key points
Frito-Lay is its own prime competition in this market
Figure 58: Brands of corn, tortilla chips and cheese snacks eaten, by age, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Figure 59: Brands of corn, tortilla chips and cheese snacks eaten, by household income, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Figure 60: Brands of corn, tortilla chips and cheese snacks eaten, by presence of children, July 2009-Sept. 2010
THE MEAT SNACKS AND BEEF JERKY CONSUMER
Key points
Usage higher among younger consumers
Figure 61: Brands of meat snacks and beef jerky eaten, by age, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Figure 62: Brands of meat snacks and beef jerky eaten, by household income, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Nothing too out of the ordinary for meat snacks/beef jerky consumers
Figure 63: Flavors of meat snacks and beef jerky eaten, by age, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Figure 64: Flavors of meat snacks and beef jerky eaten, by household income, July 2009-Sept. 2010
WHO EATS WHAT AND FACTORS IMPACTING CHOICE
Key points
Salty snacks have fairly high personal consumption levels
Figure 65: Who in household eats each type of salty snack, November 2010
Consumers feel at home with snacking occasions
Figure 66: Occasions when respondent personally eats each type of salty snack, November 2010
Consumers favor name brands but are not always brand loyal
Figure 67: Incidence of buying name brand or store brand for each type of salty snack, November 2010
Snacks perceived as a diversion to be enjoyed
Figure 68: Impact of health, taste and price considerations on the purchase of each type of salty snack, November 2010
IMPACT OF RACE/HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Types of salty snacks eaten
Figure 69: Types of salty snacks eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Brands of popcorn eaten
Figure 70: Brands of popcorn eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Brands of corn and tortilla chips and cheese snacks eaten
Figure 71: Brands of corn, tortilla chips and cheese snacks eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Brands of meat snacks and beef jerky eaten
Figure 72: Brands of meat snacks and beef jerky eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Flavors of meat snacks and beef jerky eaten
Figure 73: Flavors of meat snacks and beef jerky eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Brands of snack crackers, saltines and graham crackers eaten
Figure 74: Brands of snack crackers, saltines, and graham crackers eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Types of crackers, saltines and graham crackers eaten
Figure 75: Types of crackers, saltines, and graham crackers eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Regular vs. low salt/sodium crackers
Figure 76: Types of crackers eaten, regular vs. low salt/sodium, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2009-Sept. 2010
CUSTOM CONSUMER TABLES—MOSAIC GROUPINGS
Key points
Household consumption of popcorn
Figure 77: Household consumption of popcorn, by mosaic groupings, July 2009-September 2010
Brands of popcorn eaten in household
Figure 78: Popcorn consumption by brand, by top mosaic user groups, July 2009-September 2010
Volume of popcorn eaten in household
Figure 79: Number of packages of popcorn eaten in household, by top mosaic user groups, July 2009-September 2010
Household consumption of meat snacks/beef jerky
Figure 80: Household consumption of meat snacks/beef jerky, by mosaic groupings, July 2009-September 2010
Brands of meat snacks/beef jerky eaten in household
Figure 81: Meat snacks/beef jerky consumption by brand, by top mosaic user groups, July 2009-September 2010
Flavors of meat snacks/beef jerky eaten in household
Figure 82: Flavor of meat snacks/beef jerky eaten in household, by top mosaic user groups, July 2009-September 2010
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Full A-Salts
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Chippers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Low Snacks
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 83: Salty snack clusters, December 2010
Figure 84: Types of chips, pretzels, nuts and seeds and other salted snacks personally eaten, by salty snack clusters, November 2010, December 2010
Figure 85: Important factors when choosing chips and salty snacks, by salty snack clusters, December 2010
Figure 86: Very important factors when choosing chips and salty snacks, by salty snack clusters, December 2010
Figure 87: Impact of health, taste and price considerations on the purchase of cheese snacks and corn snacks, by salty snack clusters, December 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 88: Salty snack clusters, by gender, December 2010
Figure 89: Salty snack clusters, by age group, December 2010
Figure 90: Salty snack clusters, by household income, December 2010
Figure 91: Salty snack clusters, by race, December 2010
Figure 92: Salty snack clusters, by Hispanic origin, December 2010
Cluster methodology
IRI/BUILDERS PANEL—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
 SHELF-STABLE (SS) MICROWAVE POPCORN
Overview
Consumer insights on key purchase measures – SS microwave popcorn
Brand map
Figure 93: Brand map, selected brands of SS microwave popcorn buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 94: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS microwave popcorn, by household penetration, 2010*
 DRIED MEAT SNACKS
Overview
Consumer insights on key purchase measures – jerky
Brand map
Figure 95: Brand map, selected brands of jerky buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 96: Key purchase measures for the top brands of Jerky, by household penetration, 2010*
 CHEESE AND CORN SNACKS
Overview
Consumer insights on key purchase measures – cheese snacks
Brand map
Figure 97: Brand map, selected brands of cheese snacks buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 98: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cheese snacks, by household penetration, 2010*
Consumer insights on key purchase measures – corn snacks (no tortilla chips)
Brand map
Figure 99: Brand map, selected brands of corn snacks (no tortilla chips) buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 100: Key purchase measures for the top brands of corn snacks (no tortilla chips), by household penetration, 2010*
APPENDIX 1: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Regional overview of meat snack and beef jerky consumers
Figure 101: Brands of meat snacks and beef jerky eaten, by region, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Cracker consumption between regular versus low-salt varieties
Figure 102: Types of crackers eaten, regular vs. low salt/sodium, by household income, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Cheese snacks
Figure 103: Occasions when respondent personally eats cheese snacks, by key demographics, November 2010
Corn snacks
Figure 104: Occasions when respondent personally eats corn snacks, by key demographics, November 2010
Pork rinds/jerky
Figure 105: Occasions when respondent personally eats pork rinds/jerky, by key demographics, November 2010
Other salty snacks
Figure 106: Occasions when respondent personally eats other salty snacks, by key demographics, November 2010
APPENDIX 2: THE SNACK CRACKERS, SALTINES, AND GRAHAM CRACKERS CONSUMER
Key points
Nabisco has most of the top name brands
Figure 107: Brands of snack crackers, saltines, and graham crackers eaten, by age, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Figure 108: Brands of snack crackers, saltines, and graham crackers eaten, by household income, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Consumers are sweet on saltines
Figure 109: Types of crackers, saltines, and graham crackers eaten, by age, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Figure 110: Types of crackers, saltines, and graham crackers eaten, by household income, July 2009-Sept. 2010
Regular vs. low salt/low sodium
Figure 111: Types of crackers eaten, regular vs. low salt/sodium, by age, July 2009-Sept. 2010
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS