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American Families and Dining Out - US - February 2011

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Mintel Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Restaurant sales a casualty of the recession
Traditional families aide restaurant sales during recession
Bringing families back to the dinner table
Families represent a shrinking share of the population
Growth in the Hispanic population bodes well for family dining
Healthy dining is important for families
Dining out for breakfast, lunch, and dinner
The kids’ menu is a competitive necessity
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Families provide best route in the road to recovery for restaurant industry
Insight: Traditional American Families
Figure 1: Family dining habits impacted by recession, by marital status, November 2010
Opportunities
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Trend: Experience Is All
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Restaurant industry outlook: A return to normalcy
Sales and forecast of restaurant sales
Figure 2: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 3: U.S. restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Fan chart forecast
Figure 4: Restaurant industry fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2005-15
MARKET DRIVERS
Recession causes restaurant sales to suffer, but outlook improves
Figure 5: NRA performance indices, January 2009-November 2010
Figure 6: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, January 2008-November 2010
Rising food prices
Figure 7: CPI for food, November 2008-November 2010
Unemployment and underemployment impact spending
Figure 8: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-December 2010
Cash at hand remains limited
Figure 9: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-November 2010
Consumer confidence still rattled
Figure 10: Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-December 2010
The impact of the family consumer unit on restaurant sales
Figure 11: Average annual expenditures for food away from home, all consumer units vs. parents, 2005-09
Figure 12: Average annual expenditures per consumer unit for food away from home, by marital status and presence of children, 2005-09
Figure 13: Index of average annual expenditures per consumer unit for food away from home, by marital status and presence of children, 2005-09
Families representing smaller share of households
Figure 14: Households by presence of children, 1999-2009
The child population—restaurant needs vary by age
Figure 15: Population, by age, 2006-16
Hispanics more likely to dine as a family
Figure 16: Population by Hispanic origin, 2006-16
Battling the bulge is a family affair
Figure 17: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
Children following in parents’ footsteps
Figure 18: Incidence of kids’ menu items, by nutritional ingredient claim, Q3 2008–Q3 2010
Figure 19: Prevalence of obesity among children aged 2-19, 1988-2008
Government intervention in healthy dining
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
The family meal at home
The implication
Figure 20: Family dining at home, November 2010
Recession fuels at-home dining trend
Figure 21: Incidence of cooking more at home to save money and improve nutrition, July 2010
Restaurant operators entice families to dine out
The bottom line
But challenges remain
MENU ANALYSIS—DIFFERENCES BY DAYPART
Key points
Dinner offers consumers more choice
Figure 22: Incidence of menu items, by menu type, Q3 2008–Q3 2010
Breakfast is the least expensive meal
Figure 23: Average price of menu items, by menu type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
MENU ANALYSIS—WHAT’S ON THE MENU
Key points
Entrées and sandwiches account for largest menu sections
Figure 24: Incidence of menu items, by menu section, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Diversity in choice of entrée
Figure 25: Incidence of entrée menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Casual dining offers largest menu
Figure 26: Incidence of menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
The price of dining out
Figure 27: Average price of menu items, by menu section, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Fast casual offers lowest prices
Figure 28: Average price of menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
MENU ANALYSIS—KIDS’ MENU ITEMS
Key points
Choices for kids
Figure 29: Incidence of kids’ menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Frying chicken is the most popular
Figure 30: Incidence of kids’ chicken menu items, by preparation, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Fine dining increases the number of kids’ menu items; fast casual taking it slow
Figure 31: Incidence of kids’ menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
The price of kids’ menu items
Figure 32: Average price of kids’ menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
MENU ANALYSIS—THE COMBO DEAL
Key points
Make it a combo
Figure 33: Average price of combo menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Kids’ menus—the price of happiness
Figure 34: Average price of kids’ combo menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
MENU ANALYSIS—MARKETING THE MENU
Key points
Marketing menu items toward adults
Hot trend—Gluten-free
Figure 35: Incidence of menu item, by marketing claim, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Marketing the kids’ menu
Figure 36: Incidence of kids’ menu items, by marketing claim, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Key points
Family is part of Olive Garden’s brand message
Figure 37: Olive Garden’s television ad, family of five, June 2010
Figure 38: Olive Garden’s television ad, favorite uncles, June 2010
Figure 39: Olive Garden’s television ad, college visit, June 2010
Figure 40: Demographic index* for olivegarden.com, by age, January 2011
McDonald’s—The brand that woos kids
Figure 41: McDonald’s television ad, happy meal toy promotion, August 2010
Figure 42: McDonald’s television ad, Charity donation, June 2010
Figure 43: Demographic index* for mcdonalds.com, by presence and age of children in household, April 2010
Peripheral efforts to appeal to families
A sense of family
Figure 44: Applebee’s television ad, May 2010
Free kids’ meals
Figure 45: Chili’s email alert, December 2010
Fundraisers encourage family dining
Ad spending of top advertisers by restaurant segment
Figure 46: Top three restaurant advertisers, by segment, 2008 and 2009
FAMILY DINING AT HOME
Key points
Families most likely to eat dinner together at home
Figure 47: Family dining at home, November 2010
Single parents less apt to have family dinners
Figure 48: Family dining at home, by marital status, November 2010
FAMILY DINING AT RESTAURANTS
Key points
Incidence of families dining at restaurants during the month
Families frequently dine at restaurants
Figure 49: Family dining at restaurants, November 2010
Restaurant usage lags among the less affluent
Figure 50: Family dining at restaurants, by household income, November 2010
Single parents are less apt to dine out as a family during the week
Figure 51: Family dining at restaurants, by marital status, November 2010
Restaurant usage by households with children
Figure 52: Restaurant usage, by households with children and marital status of parents, April 2009-June 2010
Lunchtime and snacking offer opportunities in family dining
Figure 53: Attitudes toward meal occasions and snacking, by presence of children in household, April 2009-June 2010
Children and teen usage of restaurants by dining occasion
Figure 54: Kids’ and teens’ restaurant usage, by dining occasion, April 2009-June 2010
FAMILY DINING AT RESTAURANTS BY DAYPART
 BREAKFAST
Key points
Weekday breakfast
Figure 55: Restaurant dining for weekday breakfast, November 2010
Weekend breakfast
Figure 56: Restaurant dining for weekend breakfast, November 2010
 LUNCH
Key points
Weekday lunch
Figure 57: Restaurant dining for weekday lunch, November 2010
Weekend lunch
Figure 58: Restaurant dining for weekend lunch, November 2010
 DINNER
Key points
Weekday dinner
Figure 59: Restaurant dining for weekday dinner, November 2010
Weekend dinner
Figure 60: Restaurant dining for weekend dinner, November 2010
FAMILY DINING OUT—HABITS AND BEHAVIORS
Key points
Speed of service and kids’ meals are important to family dining
Figure 61: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by age, November 2010
Less affluent parents more likely to limit kids’ food choices by price
Figure 62: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by household income, November 2010
Large families look for entertainment value
Figure 63: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by number of children, November 2010
FAMILY DINING-OUT HABITS—IMPACT OF THE RECESSION
Key points
Families continue to modify behavior because of the recession
Figure 64: Family dining habits impacted by recession, by household income, November 2010
Families are dining out less often because of the recession
Figure 65: Recession-induced changes in family dining-out habits, November 2010
WHAT PARENTS WANT TO SEE MORE OF ON THE KIDS’ MENU
Key points
Healthy meals in demand for kids
Figure 66: What parents would like to see more of on the kids’ menu, by age, November 2010
Larger families want more variety
Figure 67: What parents would like to see more of on the kids’ menu, by number of children, November 2010
INTEREST IN HEALTHY/NUTRITIONAL RESTAURANT MEALS
Key points
Parents show greatest concern in healthy meals for young children
Figure 68: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals, for self or children, November 2010
Moms and dads equally concerned about healthy restaurants meals for young kids
Figure 69: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals for children aged 1-5, by gender, November 2010
Moms are more inclined not to worry about healthy meals for kids aged 6-11
Figure 70: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals for children aged 6-11, by gender, November 2010
Servings of fruits and veggies still popular for teens
Figure 71: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals for children aged 12-17, by gender, November 2010
Women look for fruits and veggies in restaurant meals for themselves
Figure 72: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals for themselves, by gender, November 2010
RESTAURANT DINERS’ USAGE OF SOCIAL MEDIA
Figure 73: Restaurant diners’ usage of social media, by presence of children in household, April 2009–June 2010
IMPACT OF RACE/HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Hispanic families more likely to eat breakfast and lunch together
Figure 74: Family dining at home, by Hispanic origin, November 2010
Hispanics more likely to dine out as a family
Figure 75: Family dining at restaurants, by Hispanic origin, November 2010
Hispanics are influenced by affordability and health
Figure 76: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by Hispanic origin, November 2010
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Infrequent Meal Sharers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Recession-Induced Economizers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Family Feasters
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Characteristic tables
Figure 77: Family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 78: Family dining at home, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 79: Family dining at restaurants, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 80: Restaurant dining for weekday breakfast, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 81: Restaurant dining for weekend breakfast, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 82: Restaurant dining for weekday lunch, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 83: Restaurant dining for weekend lunch, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 84: Restaurant dining for weekday dinner, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 85: Restaurant dining for weekend dinner, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 86: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Figure 87: Recession-induced changes in family dining-out habits, by family dining clusters, November 2010
Demographic tables
Figure 88: Family dining clusters, by gender, November 2010
Figure 89: Family dining clusters, by age, November 2010
Figure 90: Family dining clusters, by household income, November 2010
Figure 91: Family dining clusters, by race, November 2010
Figure 92: Family dining clusters, by Hispanic origin, November 2010
Figure 93: Family dining clusters, by number of children, November 2010
Cluster methodology:
APPENDIX—TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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