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Soup - US - January 2011

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Advertising clips
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market at a glance
Sodium awareness and concern on the rise, puts soup makers in a bind
Promotions, lower prices but fail to build RTS soup volume
Condensed soup declines accelerate despite sodium reduction
Low-priced ramen loses sales momentum gained during recession
Broth leads category in sales growth
Supermarkets lead category, but face pressure
Campbell Soup and General Mills turn positive to reinvigorate category
Competition from within: private label continues to gain strength
Number of new product launches declines slightly
New advertising focuses on the positive
Key consumer research findings
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Make soup more social
Be a part of the solution
Positively healthy
INSPIRE INSIGHTS—FOOD PHOBIA
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Rising prices, recession boost sales 2005-08
Sales slip in 2009 and 2010 amid ad wars and promotions
Returning to a more positive outlook
Figure 1: FDMx sales and forecast of soup, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 2: FDMx sales and forecast of soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Walmart sales
Total market estimate and forecast
Figure 3: Total market sales and forecast of soup, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 4: Total market sales and forecast of soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Fan-chart forecast
Figure 5: Total market sales and fan forecast of soup, at current prices, 2005-15
MARKET DRIVERS
Sodium
Awareness on the rise
Sodium consumption has increased in recent decades
More shoppers taking note of sodium levels
Figure 6: Key sodium attitudes, by age, May 2010
More marketers making sodium reductions
Weight awareness
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Competition from within: private label continues to gain strength
Figure 7: Private-label soup market share, by segment, 2006-10
Private-label soup launches surge in 2010
Figure 8: Number of soup new product launches, by type, 2006-10
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Sales of soup, by segment
Figure 9: FDMx sales and forecast of soup, by segment, 2005-15
Figure 10: FDMx sales of soup, by type, 2008 and 2010
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—READY-TO-SERVE WET SOUP
Key points
RTS soup suffers declines, lasting impact of soup wars
Price comparisons don’t favor RTS
Promotions, lower prices but fail to build volume
Competitors switch to positive messages. Will it reverse the downward trend?
Sales and forecast—ready-to-serve wet soup
Figure 11: FDMx sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—CONDENSED WET SOUP
Key points
Condensed soup declines accelerate despite sodium reduction
Campbell’s most recent efforts in segment focus on the retail shelf
Sales and forecast—condensed wet soup
Figure 12: FDMx sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—DRY SOUP
Key points
Low-priced ramen loses sales momentum gained during recession
Sales and forecast—dry soup
Figure 13: FDMx sales and forecast of dry soup, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—READY-TO-SERVE BROTH
Key points
Broth leads category in sales growth
Sales and forecast—ready-to-serve broth
Figure 14: FDMx sales and forecast of ready-to-serve broth, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—REFRIGERATED SOUP
Key points
Refrigerated soup sales stall
Sales and forecast—refrigerated soup
Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of refrigerated soup, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—FROZEN SOUP
Key points
Frozen soup sales decline in recession, then stabilize
Opportunity for local and regional favorites
Sales and forecast—frozen soup
Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of frozen soup, 2005-15
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets lead category, but face pressure from all sides
Figure 17: FDMx sales of soup, by channel, 2008 and 2010
RETAIL CHANNELS—SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Supermarkets remain central to the soup category
Figure 18: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of soup, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—OTHER CHANNELS
Key points
Other retailers gain by placing greater emphasis on food
Figure 19: Sales of soup at other FDMx channels, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Insights
Sales of soup in the natural channel
Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of soup, at current prices, 2008-10
Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10
Natural channel sales by segment
Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of soup, by segment, 2008 and 2010*
Leading brands
Figure 23: Selected natural supermarket brand sales of soup, 2008 and 2010
Natural channel sales by organic content
Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of soup, by organic/non-organic, 2008 and 2010
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Campbell Soup and General Mills turn positive to reinvigorate category
Maruchan gains on value proposition
FDMx sales of soup by manufacturer
Figure 25: FDMx sales of soup, by manufacturer, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—READY-TO-SERVE WET SOUP
Key points
Few winners in declining RTS segment
Progresso bets on flavor
Figure 26: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of ready-to-serve wet soup, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—CONDENSED WET SOUP
Key points
Campbell defines segment
Better-for-you lines and kids’ products outperform the rest of the segment
Figure 27: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of condensed wet soup, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—DRY SOUP
Key points
Ramen’s growth stalls
Little new product activity to stir new interest
Figure 28: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of dry soup, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—READY-TO-SERVE BROTH
Key points
Both value and premium brands make gains
Figure 29: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of ready-to-serve broth, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—REFRIGERATED SOUP
Key points
Supermarket store brands control segment
Figure 30: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of refrigerated soup, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—FROZEN SOUP
Key points
Frozen soups stress quality, appeal to regional and cultural preferences
Figure 31: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of frozen soup, 2009 and 2010
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Wet soup launches outnumber dry by more than three to one
Figure 32: Number of soup new product launches, by form, 2006-10
Convenience a defining theme, all-natural becoming more common
Figure 33: Top claims for soup new product launches, 2006-10
Natural and organic
Health claims focus on what’s missing
New flavor experiences
Figure 34: Top flavor claims for soup new product launches, 2006-10
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview
Figure 35: Advertising spending of leading soup brands, 2008 and 2009
No winners in the soup ad war
Campbell’s new campaign focuses on the positive
Surprising ingredients for foodies
Figure 36: Campbell “ingredients” television ad, 2010
Better-for-you options for health-conscious consumers
Figure 37: Campbell’s Healthy Request Soup television ad, 2010
Lean and wholesome for hearty eaters
Figure 38: Campbell’s Chunky beef with country vegetables soup television ad, 2010
Inexpensive meal solution for singles and couples
Figure 39: Campbell’s Chunky sirloin Burger soup television ad, 2010
Beyond television
Rediscovery
New Campbell merchandising system facilitates flavor exploration
Progresso pivots on taste, approachability
Figure 40: Progresso World Recipes soup television ad, 2010
Figure 41: Progresso Rich & Hearty soup television ad, 2010
Health-conscious Boomers
SOUP CONSUMPTION—WHO EATS WHAT?
Key points
Most households use soup
Figure 42: Household usage of soup, by type, April 2009-June 2010
Canned soup skews older, dry soup and bouillon to younger adults
Figure 43: Household usage of soup, by type, by age, April 2009-June 2010
Budget-friendly dry soup mixes more popular in larger households
Figure 44: Household usage of soup, by type, by number of people in household, April 2009-June 2010
Reported soup frequency on the rise
Figure 45: Number of cans of soup/broth used, 2008/09 and 2009/10
Figure 46: Number of cans of dry soup/lunch mix or dry bouillon used, 2008/09 and 2009/10
Younger adults more likely to eat fresh, refrigerated, and frozen soup
Figure 47: Type of soup eaten in household, by age, September 2010
Higher-income respondents also more likely to opt for alternatives
Figure 48: Who in the household eats what kind of soup? “I do,” by household income, September 2010
Who else in the household eating soup?
Figure 49: Who in the household eats what kind of soup? September 2010
SHOPPING FOR SOUP
Key points
Considerable opportunity to influence brand and flavor choice in-store
Figure 50: When in the purchase cycle the brand/flavor of soup is chosen, by age, September 2010
Figure 51: When in the purchase cycle the brand/flavor of soup is chosen, by household income, September 2010
Figure 52: When in the purchase cycle the brand/flavor of soup is chosen, by presence and number of children, September 2010
Container material has little impact on soup selection...or does it?
Figure 53: Role of the container in purchasing soup, by age, September 2010
Women more engaged in soup shopping
Figure 54: Ways of buying/using soup, by gender, September 2010
Figure 55: Ways of buying/using soup, by age, September 2010
HOW AND WHEN SOUP IS EATEN
Key points
Soup is most often a solo meal
Only a few take soup to work and school
Figure 56: Ways of normally eating soup, by age, September 2010
Presence of kids drives family use
Men more likely than women to eat soup as a snack
Figure 57: Ways of normally eating soup, by gender/presence of children, September 2010
TAKING SOUP TO WORK OR SCHOOL
Key points
Wet soup the most popular choice for school and office
Figure 58: Types of soup taken to work/school, by age, gender and household income, September 2010
Recession has motivated some to take soup to work or school
Figure 59: Changes in taking soup to work/school in recession, by gender, September 2010
Figure 60: Changes in taking soup to work/school in recession, by household income, September 2010
UNDERSTANDING OF CHANGES NEEDED TO IMPROVE DIET
Key points
Actual behavior notwithstanding, consumers know what to eat, what not to
Sodium near the top of the list of what consumers know they should avoid
For soup marketers, time to accentuate the positive
Figure 61: Changes to eating habits required to improve diet, September 2010
IMPACT OF RACE/HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Hispanic households economize with dry soup
Black households frequent users of both canned and dry soup
Asians less likely to use soup
Figure 62: Household usage of soup, types of soup and frequency of use of canned and dry soup, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
Black soup shoppers show more brand and flavor loyalty
Figure 63: When in the purchase cycle the brand/flavor of soup is chosen, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2010
Asians more price-sensitive
Figure 64: Ways of buying/using soup, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2010
Blacks eat soup more ways
Figure 65: Ways of normally eating soup, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2010
CUSTOM CONSUMER TABLES
Gender/age—personal use of different kinds of soup
Figure 66: Who in the household eats what kind of soup? “I do,” by gender and age, September 2010
Younger women more likely to be influenced by in-store marketing
Figure 67: When in the purchase cycle the brand/flavor of soup is chosen, by gender and age, September 2010
Younger women less committed to brands, less likely to use soup in recipes
Figure 68: Ways of buying/using soup, by gender and age, September 2010
For adults of all ages, soup most commonly a solo meal
Figure 69: Ways of normally eating soup, by gender and age, September 2010
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Bargainers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Planners
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Flexibles
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 70: Soup clusters, September 2010
Figure 71: When in the purchase cycle the brand/flavor of soup is chosen, by soup clusters, September 2010
Figure 72: Role of the container in purchasing soup, by soup clusters, September 2010
Figure 73: Ways of buying/using soup, by soup clusters, September 2010
Figure 74: Ways of normally eating soup, by soup clusters, September 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 75: Soup clusters, by gender, September 2010
Figure 76: Soup clusters, by age, September 2010
Figure 77: Soup clusters, by household income, September 2010
Figure 78: Soup clusters, by race, September 2010
Figure 79: Soup clusters, by Hispanic origin, September 2010
Cluster methodology
IRI/BUILDERS—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
 OVERVIEW OF SOUP
 CONDENSED WET SOUP
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—condensed wet soup
Brand map
Figure 80: Brand map, selected brands of condensed wet soup buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 81: Key purchase measures for the top brands of condensed wet soup, by household penetration, 2010*
 RTS WET SOUP
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—RTS wet soup
Brand map
Figure 82: Brand map, selected brands of RTS wet soup buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 83: Key purchase measures for the top brands of RTS wet soup, by household penetration, 2010*
 DRY SOUP
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—dry soup
Brand map
Figure 84: Brand map, selected brands of dry soup buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 85: Key purchase measures for the top brands of dry soup, by household penetration, 2010*
APPENDIX: IRI/BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
IRI Consumer Network Metrics
APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL TABLES
Figure 86: Household usage of canned or jarred soup/broth, by brand, 2008/09 and 2009/10
Figure 87: Household usage of dry soup/lunch mix or dry bouillon, by brand, 2008/09 and 2009/10
Figure 88: Ways of buying/using soup, by household income, September 2010
Figure 89: Ways of normally eating soup, by household income, September 2010
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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