Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks - US - December 2010

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market at a glance
Activia and the Greeks tap into healthy-eating trend, drive category growth
Plenty of room to grow further
Bucking broader CPG trend, private label yogurt share declines
Supermarkets dominate sales, lead category growth
General Mills and Groupe Danone dominate yogurt market
New product activity picks up in 2010
Diverging marketing strategies for Greeks and Activia
Consumer research findings
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Craft yogurt in mainstream channels
Bring the dairy case to life
Accelerate store brands
What’s next for Greek? To extend or not to extend…
The case for not extending
The case for extending
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Trend: “Many Me’s”
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Steady growth continues
Activia and the Greeks tap into healthy-eating trend, drive category
Value perception on the rise
Kids yogurt benefiting as well
Plenty of room to grow
FDMx sales and forecast
Figure 1: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 2: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Fan-chart forecast
Figure 3: FDMx sales and fan forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2005-15
Walmart sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Weight awareness
Yogurt’s many benefits
Wholesomeness and simplicity
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Bucking broader CPG trend, private label yogurt share declines
PL drop reflects brand strength of Greeks and Activia
Figure 4: FDMx  market share of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, 2005-15
Long term, PL competition likely to get tougher
Other better-for-you snacks
Figure 5: FDMx sales of healthy snack foods, by segment, 2006 and 2008
Cereal and snack bars
Stomach remedies and supplements
Frozen yogurt fares well among other spoonable desserts
Figure 6: Total U.S. sales of spoonable desserts, by segment, 2008-10
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Refrigerated yogurt increasingly dominates category
Sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment
Figure 7: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, 2005-15
Figure 8: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by type, 2008 and 2010
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—REFRIGERATED YOGURT
Key points
Refrigerated yogurt thrives on health and taste
Figure 9: FDMx price paid per pint of selected refrigerated yogurt brands, 2010
Figure 10: FDMx dollar sales, pint sales, and price paid per pint of refrigerated yogurt, 2005-2010
Sales and forecast—refrigerated yogurt
Figure 11: FDMx sales and forecast of refrigerated yogurt, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—REFRIGERATED YOGURT DRINKS
Key points
Drinkable concepts struggle to maintain momentum
Sales and forecast—refrigerated yogurt drinks
Figure 12: FDMx sales of refrigerated yogurt drinks, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—FROZEN YOGURT/TOFU
Key points
Respectable performance against more decadent desserts
Competition from a new wave of “not-quite-so-bad-for-you” ice cream
No new-product home runs
Sales and forecast—frozen yogurt/tofu
Figure 13: FDMx sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/tofu, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—SHELF-STABLE YOGURT/YOGURT MIXES
Key points
Sales fluctuate in category’s smallest segment
Sales and forecast—shelf-stable yogurt/yogurt mixes
Figure 14: FDMx sales and forecast of shelf stable yogurt/yogurt mixes, 2005-15
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets lead category growth
Figure 15: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by channel, 2009 and 2010
RETAIL CHANNELS—SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Growing category an opportunity and challenge for supermarkets
Opportunity to expand usage
Figure 16: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—OTHER FDMX CHANNELS
Key points
Other retailers place greater emphasis on food, bolstering yogurt sales
Figure 17: Sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks at other FDMx channels, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Insights
Sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks in the natural channel
Figure 18: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2008-10
Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10
Natural channel sales by segment
Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, 2008 and 2010
Leading brands
Natural channel sales by organic content
Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by organic content, 2008 and 2010
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Groupe Danone
General Mills
FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks by manufacturer
Figure 22: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by manufacturer, 2009-10
BRAND SHARE—REFRIGERATED YOGURT
Key points
Groupe Danone builds sales and share on multiple fronts
General Mills loses share
The Greek invasion
Figure 23: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of refrigerated yogurt, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—REFRIGERATED YOGURT DRINKS
Key points
Danimals smoothies boosted by broader brand effort
General Mills bows out
Figure 24: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of refrigerated yogurt drinks, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—FROZEN YOGURT/TOFU
Key points
Specialized brands gain share
Figure 25: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of frozen yogurt/tofu, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—SHELF STABLE YOGURT/YOGURT MIXES
Key points
Figure 26: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of shelf stable yogurt/yogurt mixes, 2009 and 2010
INNOVATION AND INNOVATORS
New product activity picks up in 2010
Figure 27: Number of yogurt* introductions in the U.S., by product type, 2005-10
Figure 28: Number of frozen yogurt introductions in the U.S., by product type, 2005-10
Greek and probiotic on the rise
Figure 29: Appearance of “Greek” and “probiotic” in descriptors for U.S. yogurt* new product launches, 2005-10
Yogurt’s healthy image enhanced with increasingly specific health claims
Figure 30: Product claims for U.S. yogurt* new product launches, 2005-10
Figure 31: U.S. yogurt* new product launches, by company, 2005-10
Functional health benefits and probiotics
Dessert/indulgence
Organic, natural, and local
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview
Figure 32: Advertising spending for yoplait and Dannon by brand, 2008-09
The Greek invasion
Figure 33: FDMx sales of Greek-style refrigerated yogurt, by brand, 2005-10
Fage kicks off a trend, creates a category
Chobani picks up on the momentum
Stonyfield Oikos makes Greek organic
Dannon and Yoplait enter the Greek market
Figure 34: Dannon Greek yogurt television ad, 2010
Figure 35: Yoplait Greek yogurt television ad, 2010
Dannon Activia continues to grow
Figure 36: FDMx sales of Dannon Activia yogurt products, by variety, 2006-10
Activia’s clinical proof provides a contrast to grassroots Greeks
Figure 37: Dannon Activia “regularity” television ad, 2010
Figure 38: Dannon Activia dessert yogurt television ad, 2010
Encouraging regular consumption—The Activia 14 Day Challenge
TRENDS IN YOGURT CONSUMPTION
Key points
Yogurt incidence on the rise
Figure 39: Overall consumption of yogurt, 2005-10
Frequency of eating yogurt also inching up
Figure 40: Number of servings of yogurt eaten, 2005-10
Spoonable most popular type among all family members
Figure 41: Who eats which types of yogurt, September 2010
Adults and kids eat spoonable yogurt more frequently than drinkable
Figure 42: Frequency of eating of yogurt, by person in household, September 2010
Frozen yogurt incidence holds steady
Figure 43: Overall consumption of frozen yogurt, 2005-10
Frozen yogurt frequency increases slightly
Figure 44: Number of servings of frozen yogurt eaten, 2005-10
TYPES OF YOGURT EATEN AND WHAT’S ADDED
Key points
Low-fat and regular hold steady as most popular types
Figure 45: Types of yogurt eaten, 2005-10
Fruit on the bottom a standard favorite
Figure 46: What people add to yogurt, 2005-10
Regular and low-fat frozen yogurt more popular than fat-free
Figure 47: Types of frozen yogurt eaten, 2005-2010
TEEN CONSUMPTION
Key points
Yogurt incidence and frequency drop off among older male teens
Figure 48: Overall teen consumption of yogurt, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 49: Number of servings of yogurt eaten by teens, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
Regular yogurt most widely used type
Figure 50: Types of yogurt eaten by teens, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
Teens go for greater variety in yogurt, especially mix-ins
Figure 51: What teens add to yogurt, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
Teens eat more frozen yogurt than adults
Figure 52: Overall teen consumption of frozen yogurt, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 53: Number of servings of frozen yogurt eaten by teens, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE POT
Key points
How important is the right plastic for your yogurt?
Figure 54: Interest in type of plastic used for yogurt containers, by age, September 2010
Secondary uses for yogurt containers
Figure 55: Secondary use of yogurt containers, by gender, September 2010
SWEETENERS AND YOGURT—TYPES ADDED, LOOKED FOR, OR AVOIDED
Key points
Few add sweeteners; when they do, it’s often honey
Some look for zero-calorie sweeteners
Half of yogurt eaters avoid certain sweeteners
Figure 56: Sweeteners and yogurt; types added, looked for, avoided, September 2010
Older yogurt eaters far more likely to avoid all types of sugar
Figure 57: Sugar and yogurt; types added, looked for, avoided, by age, September 2010
Artificial sweeteners
Figure 58: Artificial sweeteners and yogurt; types added, looked for, avoided, by age, September 2010
Other sweeteners
Figure 59: Other sweeteners and yogurt; types added, looked for, avoided, by age, September 2010
INTEREST IN NATURAL AND ORGANIC
Key points
Interest in natural and organic is widespread
Figure 60: Interest in organic or natural yogurt, by gender, September 2010
REASONS FOR EATING OR SERVING YOGURT
Key points
Health is important; taste is a deal breaker
Yogurt viewed more as a snack than a meal or a dessert
Female users more likely to appreciate yogurt’s taste, healthfulness, and convenience
Figure 61: Reasons for eating or serving yogurt, by gender, September 2010
Figure 62: Reasons for eating or serving yogurt, by age, September 2010
IMPACT OF RACE/HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Yogurt incidence and frequency
Figure 63: Overall consumption of yogurt, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 64: Number of servings of yogurt eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
Types of yogurt products consumed
Figure 65: Types of yogurt eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
Frozen yogurt incidence and frequency
Figure 66: Overall consumption of frozen yogurt, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 67: Number of servings of frozen yogurt eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
Interest in natural and organic
Figure 68: Interest in organic or natural yogurt, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2010
Reasons for eating or serving yogurt
Figure 69: Reasons for eating or serving yogurt, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2010
Kids and teens consumption
Figure 70: Yogurt consumption of kids and teens, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 71: Frozen yogurt consumption of kids and teens, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
CUSTOM CONSUMER TABLES
Women of all ages more likely than men to consume yogurt
Figure 72: Overall consumption of yogurt, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 73: Number of servings of yogurt eaten, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
Women less likely to eat regular yogurt
Figure 74: Types of yogurt eaten, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
Frozen yogurt incidence also higher among women at all age groups
Figure 75: Overall consumption of frozen yogurt, by gender and age, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 76: Number of servings of frozen yogurt eaten, 2005-2010
Women cite more reasons for eating yogurt
Figure 77: Reasons for eating or serving yogurt, by gender and age, September 2010
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Regulars
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Dabblers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Hi-Cultures
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 78: Yogurt and yogurt drinks clusters, September 2010
Figure 79: Reasons for eating or serving yogurt, by yogurt and yogurt drinks clusters, September 2010
Figure 80: Yogurt-eating behaviors, by yogurt and yogurt drinks clusters, September 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 81: Yogurt and yogurt drinks clusters, by gender, September 2010
Figure 82: Yogurt and yogurt drinks clusters, by age group, September 2010
Figure 83: Yogurt and yogurt drinks clusters, by household income, September 2010
Figure 84: Yogurt and yogurt drinks clusters, by race, September 2010
Figure 85: Yogurt and yogurt drinks clusters, by Hispanic origin, September 2010
Cluster methodology
KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
Overview
Refrigerated yogurt
Consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 86: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated yogurt buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 87: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated yogurt, by household penetration, 2010*
Refrigerated yogurt drinks
Consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 88: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated yogurt drinks buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 89: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated yogurt, by household penetration, 2010*
APPENDIX—IRI/BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
IRI Consumer Network Metrics
APPENDIX—OTHER USEFUL TABLES
Figure 90: Interest in type of plastic used for yogurt containers, by gender, September 2010
Figure 91: Interest in type of plastic used for yogurt containers, by household income, September 2010
Figure 92: Interest in type of plastic used for yogurt containers, by urban status, September 2010
Figure 93: Interest in type of plastic used for yogurt containers, by number of people in household, September 2010
Figure 94: Interest in type of plastic used for yogurt containers, by presence and number of children, September 2010
APPENDIX—TRADE ASSOCIATIONS