Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - June 2010

ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Key themes
Definitions
Abbreviations
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Countering the home baking trend
Oh-so-fashionable
Have your cake and eat it too
MARKET IN BRIEF
Buoyant market in face of recession
Innovation in the face of market stagnation
Going small
Indulgence remains important to many consumers
The future
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Healthy eating rules...
Figure 1: Healthy lifestyle trends, January 2009-January 2010
Figure 2: Eating habit trends, January 2009-January 2010
…and brings changes to consumption patterns
Food to go
Let’s celebrate
Home baking is on the up
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Raw material prices climb upwards
Children’s market hit by new standards
Ageing population may restrict certain opportunities
Figure 3: Trends in UK age structure, by gender, 2005-15
One-person households continue to grow
Figure 4: Breakdown of UK household sizes, 2005-15
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Competition from confectionery and snack products is high
Figure 5: Trends in confectionery and snacks usage, 2005-09
Health – a key battleground
Figure 6: Retail sales of cakes and cake bars with competing healthy products, 2005-09
Eating whilst on the go – an emerging opportunity
Figure 7: Types of snacks eaten on the go most commonly, 2006 and 2008
Indulgence – cakes continue as a winner
Figure 8: Retail sales of cakes and cake bars with competing indulgent snacks, 2005-09
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES IN THE MARKET
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Innovation dips during 2009...
Figure 9: Cake and cake bar variant launches, 2007-09
...with own-label boosted by onset of recession
Figure 10: Cake and cake bar variant launches, 2007-09
Chocolate continues as most popular filling
Figure 11: Cake and cake bar launches, by type of flavouring, 2007-09
Drive to be natural dominates development activity
Figure 12: Cake and cake bar launches, by product feature, 2007-09
Own-label continues to develop
Brands experiment with new flavours
Health benefits
Mixing it with confectionery
MARKET VALUE AND FORECAST
Key points
Retail sales experience solid growth...
Figure 13: Retail sales of cakes and cake bars, 2005-15
...as consumers downsize
Figure 14: Retail sales of cakes, by type, 2007 and 2009
Market polarisation
Market forecast
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
 WRAPPED CAKES
Large cakes suffer as consumers downsize
Figure 15: Retail sales of large cakes, 2005-10
Rolls and slabs perform best
Figure 16: Retail sales of large cakes, by type, 2007 and 2009
Occasion cakes continue to remain popular
Figure 17: Retail sales of occassion cakes, 2005-10
Individual cakes represent a buoyant market
Figure 18: Retail sales of individual cakes and cake bars, 2005-10
Small is beautiful
Figure 19: Retail sales of small cakes, by type, 2007 and 2009
 UNWRAPPED CAKES
Popularity of unwrapped cakes continues
Figure 20: Retail sales of unwrapped cakes, 2005-10
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Increasing polarisation evident between major brand and own-label sectors
Figure 21: Manufacturer and brand value shares in wrapped cakes, 2007 and 2009
Premier Foods dominates wrapped cakes market
United Biscuits suffers from lacklustre performance
Other brands
Own-label grows share
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Key points
Premier Foods
Mr Kipling
Cadbury
Lyons
United Biscuits
McVitie’s
Greencore
Finsbury Food Group
Memory Lane Cakes
Lightbody
Anthony Alan Foods
Campbells Cakes
The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys
Others
BRAND ELEMENTS
Key points
 BRAND MAP
Figure 22: Attitudes towards and consumption/service of cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
 BRAND QUALITIES OF CAKE AND CAKE BAR BRANDS
Comfort and indulgence top traits, Cadbury leads
Figure 23: Personalities of various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
 EXPERIENCE OF CAKE AND CAKE BAR BRANDS
Cadbury most popular, Gü and Krispy Kreme have lower profile
Figure 24: Consumer consumption/service of various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
 BRAND CONSIDERATION FOR CAKE AND CAKE BAR BRANDS
Family favourites most considered, but interest present in premium
Figure 25: Consideration of various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
 BRAND SATISFACTION FOR CAKE AND CAKE BAR BRANDS
Mass brands most satisfying, but premium names have fervent fans
Figure 26: Satisfaction with various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
 BRAND COMMITMENT TO CAKE AND CAKE BAR BRANDS
Premium brands to be avoided?
Figure 27: Commitment to various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
 BRAND INTENTIONS FOR CAKE AND CAKE BAR BRANDS
Traditional brands have best retention
Figure 28: Future usage intentions for various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
 BRAND RECOMMENDATION FOR CAKE AND CAKE BAR BRANDS
Mass brands most recommended
Figure 29: Recommendation of various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
 Gü
What the consumer thinks
Figure 30: Attitudes towards the Gü brand, March 2010
 MR KIPLING
What the consumer thinks
Figure 31: Attitudes towards the Mr Kipling brand, March 2010
 WEIGHT WATCHERS
What the consumer thinks
Figure 32: Attitudes towards the Weight Watchers brand, March 2010
 CADBURY
What the consumer thinks
Figure 33: Attitudes towards the Cadbury brand, March 2010
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Onset of recession seems to bypass promotional support for cakes and cake bars
Figure 34: Main media advertising spend on cakes and cake bars, 2006-09
Short-term campaigns dictate much of the movement in this market
Figure 35: Advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, 2006-09
Television and press advertising as main channels for advertisers
Figure 36: Advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, by channel, 2009
Below-the-line activity
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Figure 37: Cake and cake bar sales, by outlet, 2007 and 2009
Multiples increasingly come to dominate the sale of cakes and cake bars
Smaller retailers see sales stagnate
Other outlets record mixed success
THE CONSUMER – USAGE OF CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Key points
The topline
Figure 38: Eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, wrapped cakes and cake bars, March 2010
Nuances between the cake users
Figure 39: Eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, wrapped cakes and cake bars, by demographic profile, March 2010
Deserters?
THE CONSUMER – OCCASION AND FREQUENCY
Key points
The importance of occasion
Figure 40: When eat/serve fresh/unwrapped, wrapped and cake bars, March 2010
Usage divide
In-home formalities
In-home snacking – a platform for all
Get back in the box
Planning those impulses
Snacking at work
Occasion boosts frequency
Figure 41: Frequency of eating/serving fresh/unwrapped cakes, wrapped cakes and cake bars, March 2010
Heavy use dynamics
Breaking the weekly routine
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Key points
Figure 42: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, March 2010
Impulse or duress?
Muddying the waters
The relevance of health in cakes
Competition
Hang the expense
THE CONSUMER – REPERTOIRE AND TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
Occasion repertoire
Figure 43: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, March 2010
Figure 44: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, March 2010
Limited occasion use
Beyond the front door
 CONSUMER TYPOLOGIES
Figure 45: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by target groups, March 2010
Snacking elsewhere – 49%
Health over indulgence – 19%
Let them eat cake – 32%
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – USAGE OF CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Figure 46: Eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, wrapped cakes and cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – OCCASION AND FREQUENCY
Figure 47: Most popular when eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 48: Next most popular when eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 49: Most popular when eat/serve wrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 50: Next most popular when eat/serve wrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 51: Most popular when eat/serve cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 52: Next most popular when eat/serve cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 53: Most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 54: Next most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 55: Most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 56: Next most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 57: Frequency of eating/serving fresh/unwrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 58: Frequency of eating/serving wrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 59: Frequency of eating/serving cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Figure 60: Most popular attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 61: Next most popular attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 62: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, March 2010
Figure 63: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by next most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, March 2010
Figure 64: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, March 2010
Figure 65: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by next most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, March 2010
APPENDIX – REPERTOIRE AND TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Figure 66: Target groups, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 67: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 68: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
Figure 69: Fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, March 2010
Figure 70: Fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, March 2010
Figure 71: When eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, by target groups, March 2010
Figure 72: When eat/serve wrapped cakes, by target groups, March 2010
Figure 73: When eat/serve cake bars, by target groups, March 2010
Figure 74: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by target groups, March 2010
Figure 75: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by target groups, March 2010