Pizza Restaurants - US - October 2009

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Mintel Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A fate tied to the economy, but with additional challenges
Competitive challenges
Segment performance: Takeout, delivery, and dine-in
Leading companies
Pizza Hut
Domino’s
Papa John’s
Little Caesars
California Pizza Kitchen
Papa Murphy’s Take N Bake
Pizza restaurants and ordering technology
Advertising and promotion
Key demographics
The kid factor
Pizza restaurant usage
Pizza restaurant decision influencers
Pizza restaurants: Reasons consumers choose them
Usage by daypart
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
It’s all about the kids
The way to a dad’s heart is through his stomach
Figure 1: Reasons parents bring teens out to a full-service restaurant—parents, by gender, March 2009
Standing out from the crowd
Gluten-free pizzas are doable (and in demand)
Taking “e-Pizza” to the next level
Twitter
Facebook
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Edutainment
What's it about?
What we've seen
Specifics and application
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Man (and leading chains) cannot live on pizza alone
Figure 2: Total U.S. pizza restaurant sales and forecast, at current prices, 2004-14
Figure 3: Total U.S. pizza restaurant sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Pizza restaurants suffer from “cuisine-centricity”
Figure 4: Restaurant use in the past year, July 2009
Frozen pizza a stay-at-home value alternative
Figure 5: Average price for pizza restaurant entrée and CPG pizza, 2009
Faster, cheaper alternatives abound
Stealing the kid crowd
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Overview
A benefit to “grab and go”
Figure 6: Pizza, family and casual restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, July 2009
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—TAKEOUT
Key points
Pick-up pizza prevails on procurement
Figure 7: Takeout from a pizza restaurant, by age, July 2009
Figure 8: Takeout from a pizza restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
Figure 9: Takeout from a pizza restaurant, by region, July 2009
Considering curbside
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—DELIVERY
Key points
Delivery a favorite for younger patrons
Figure 10: Deliveries from a pizza restaurant, by age, July 2009
Figure 11: Deliveries from a pizza restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
Increasing competition for delivery dollars
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—DINING IN
Key points
Pizza restaurants lag behind on dining in
Figure 12: Pizza, family and casual restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, July 2009
Figure 13: Dining in at a pizza restaurant, by age, July 2009
Figure 14: Dining in at a pizza restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
MARKET DRIVERS
Restaurant industry recession continues, but the bottom may be in sight
Figure 15: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, May 2007-July 2009
Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants
Figure 16: Consumer Sentiment Index, by quarter, 2001-09
Figure 17: Spending at restaurants, by segment, July 2009
Figure 18: Pizza restaurant spend compared to last year, by selected demographics, July 2009
Recession reshapes the family dynamic
Increasing number of potential child diners in the U.S.
Figure 19: Population, by age, 2004-14
Figure 20: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by number of children in the household, July 2009
Figure 21: Trended teen use of leading pizza restaurants, 2004/05-2007/08
Figure 22: Trended kid use of leading pizza restaurants, 2004/05-2007/08
Courting Hispanics
Figure 23: Child population (0-12), by ethnicity/race, 2004-14
Figure 24: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by race/ethnicity, July 2009
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
When it comes to being recession-proof, size doesn’t matter
Success means finding your niche
Figure 25: U.S. sales of leading pizza restaurant chains, 2006-08
Unit growth tells a similar story
Figure 26: U.S. system-wide units for leading pizza restaurant chains, 2006-08
RESTAURANT ANALYSIS: PIZZA HUT
Pizza Hut spreads its wings
Figure 27: Pizza Hut, “Is it me or does this Pizza Hut look different?,” 2009
Positioning as the place for “home meal replacement solutions”
Serving as a tech example
RESTAURANT ANALYSIS: DOMINO’S PIZZA
A continued bottom line battle for Domino’s
Domino’s toes its own line. Or does it?
Keeping on top of tech
RESTAURANT ANALYSIS: PAPA JOHN’S
On a marketing push to relative success
Industry accolades
Special offers trump menu movements
A solid tech history
RESTAURANT ANALYSIS: LITTLE CAESARS
Aggressive pricing, expansion and cost cutting drive growth
Short (but sweet-priced) menu
Event sponsorship
RESTAURANT ANALYSIS: CALIFORNIA PIZZA KITCHEN
Sales down, yet future plans in place
Non-traditional locations
Discerning palates; ethnic flavors
Cannibalization from its own frozen line?
Thank You Card program a sales booster
Menu moves
Procurement methods more closely resemble casual dining segment
RESTAURANT ANALYSIS: INDEPENDENTS
The franchise torpedo
The artisanal independent
The backlash
MENU ANALYSIS: PIZZA HUT
Figure 28: Menu ordering behavior on last visit, Pizza Hut, by age, May 2009
RESTAURANT BRAND QUALITIES: PAPA MURPHY’S TAKE N BAKE
Performance summary
Differentiated by the take-and-bake model
Award winner
On the menu
Growth trajectory: Continued growth in a stagnant field
Figure 29: U.S. sales and units, Papa Murphy's Take N Bake Pizza, 2006-08
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Key points
Movie tie-ins continue to be a popular strategy
Promotions and giveaways
Television advertising
The value proposition
Figure 30: CiCi’s penny picker-uppers, 2009
Figure 31: Domino’s 555, 2009
Customer appreciation days
Figure 32: Papa Murphy’s customer appreciation days, 2009
Figure 33: Little Caesars customer appreciation day, 2008
Targeting dads
Figure 34: Little Caesars family meal deal, 2009
Figure 35: Pizza Hut perfect family meal, 2009
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS: MENU INNOVATION
Key points
You call that a pizza? Yes!
$5 phenomenon
INNOVATION AND INNOVATORS: GOURMET AND TECHNOLOGY
Key points
Pizzeria 2.0
Pizza restaurants stay ahead of the online ordering curve
RESTAURANT USAGE OVERVIEW
Key points
Restaurant usage
Figure 36: Restaurant usage in last year, by selected demographics, July 2009
Restaurant usage, by segment
Demographic analysis
Figure 37: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by gender, July 2009
Figure 38: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by age, July 2009
Figure 39: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by selected HH income groups, July 2009
Figure 40: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by presence of children in the HH, July 2009
Addendum: Consumer question explanation
PIZZA RESTAURANT USAGE
Key points
Pizza Hut continues to dominate by sheer size
Figure 41: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by restaurant, July 2009
Demographic analysis
Figure 42: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by gender, July 2009
Figure 43: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by age, July 2009
Figure 44: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by HH income, July 2009
Figure 45: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by presence of children, July 2009
PIZZA RESTAURANT USAGE—RACE AND ETHNICITY
Key points
Pizza restaurant usage by race/ethnicity
Figure 46: Top pizza restaurant usage, by race/ethnicity, October 2007-December 2008
Acculturated versus non-acculturated Hispanics
Figure 47: Top pizza restaurant Hispanic usage, by degree of English spoken in home, October 2007-December 2008
PIZZA RESTAURANT USAGE AND KIDS
Key points
Parents often bring kids out for pizza
Figure 48: Likelihood of children going with parents to pizza, family, and casual restaurants, July 2009
Figure 49: Likelihood of children going with parents to pizza restaurants, by selected demographics, July 2009
PIZZA RESTAURANT DECISION INFLUENCERS
Key points
Price, proximity and coupons drive use
Figure 50: Pizza restaurant influencers, by gender, July 2009
Figure 51: Pizza restaurant influencers, by age, July 2009
PIZZA RESTAURANTS: REASONS CONSUMERS CHOOSE THEM
Key points
Competitive analysis: Pizza, family, and casual restaurants
Figure 52: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza, family, and casual restaurants, July 2009
Demographic analysis: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants
Figure 53: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants, by age, July 2009
Figure 54: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants, by HH income, July 2009
PIZZA RESTAURANTS: USAGE BY DAYPART
Key points
Opportunity for continued daypart expansion
Figure 55: Restaurant mealtimes, by segment, July 2009
Figure 56: Pizza restaurant mealtimes, by gender, July 2009
Figure 57: Pizza restaurant mealtimes, by age, July 2009
CUSTOM CONSUMER TABLES: THE DAD FACTOR
Figure 58: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
Figure 59: Pizza restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
Figure 60: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
Figure 61: Pizza restaurant mealtimes, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
Figure 62: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Pizza Prompts
Pizza Pros
Pizza Ploppers
Cluster characteristics
Figure 63: Pizza restaurants, July 2009
Figure 64: Pizza restaurant spend compared to last year, by pizza clusters, July 2009
Figure 65: Pizza restaurant influencers, by pizza clusters, July 2009
Figure 66: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza, family, and casual restaurants, by pizza clusters, July 2009
Figure 67: Restaurant mealtimes, by pizza clusters, July 2009
Figure 68: Pizza restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, by pizza clusters, July 2009
Cluster demographics
Figure 69: Pizza clusters, by gender, July 2009
Figure 70: Pizza clusters, by age, July 2009
Figure 71: Pizza clusters, by HH income, July 2009
Figure 72: Pizza clusters, by race, July 2009
Figure 73: Pizza clusters, by Hispanic origin, July 2009
Cluster methodology
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS